Market evolution: Prepared chicken meat (CN 16023219) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in cooked, prepared or preserved chicken meat (Combined Nomenclature code 16023219) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers prepared poultry products containing at least 57% meat content, excluding sausages, infant food, liver preparations and meat extracts. Over this decade, the EU's trade position in this category has undergone significant structural transformation, shaped by Brexit, rapid supplier diversification in Asia, a pronounced 2022 price shock linked to avian influenza and energy costs, and the emergence of new intra-EU production hubs. The EU remains a net importer of this product, but its trade deficit has narrowed and its export profile has strengthened considerably.

1. Growing Trade Volumes with a Narrowing Deficit

1.1. The EU's aggregate trade position has improved steadily

The EU has been a consistent net importer of prepared chicken meat throughout the period, but the trade balance has improved meaningfully. The trade deficit in value terms narrowed from €255 million in 2015 to €200 million in 2025 — a 21.7% improvement — with a brief period of near-balance or surplus around 2021–2022, when the deficit reached a minimum of approximately zero (€26 million surplus in one year).

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2. Export growth has outpaced import growth in both value and price

While imports grew by 35% in value and 34% in volume, exports surged by 84% in value and 44% in volume. A key driver behind this asymmetry is the divergence in unit prices: export prices rose by 28.1% (from €3,835/t to €4,914/t), while import prices remained essentially flat (+0.4%, from €3,826/t to €3,840/t). This suggests that EU exporters have been able to capture higher value-added markets — notably the United Kingdom and Switzerland — while import prices have been held down by intense competition among global suppliers, particularly from Thailand and Brazil.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.3. EU domestic production has expanded dramatically

PRODCOM data shows that EU domestic production of this product category grew by 268% in volume (from 936 million kg to 3.44 billion kg) and by 374% in value (from €3.4 billion to €16.2 billion) over the period. This explosive growth in domestic output likely accounts for the relatively modest increase in imports despite growing demand, and explains the strengthening export capacity of the EU. It also underscores that the product category may have benefited from reclassification or expanding market coverage over the decade.

Source: Market Structure — Production Volumes

2. Brexit and the Reconfiguration of Trade Partners

2.1. The United Kingdom's role has been completely redefined

The single most dramatic structural shift in EU trade for this product has been Brexit. Before the UK's departure from the EU customs union, the UK was by far the EU's largest source of imports (€185 million in 2015, representing 34% of total EU imports) and the dominant export destination (€238 million, 81% of EU exports). By 2025, UK-origin imports had collapsed by 76% to just €44 million, while exports to the UK had surged by 75% to €418 million.

This pattern is entirely consistent with the shift from intra-EU trade (which counted the UK as a partner before 2021) to extra-EU trade flows. What was once intra-community commerce became external trade, inflating the UK's share in export statistics while reducing its share in imports — likely because the UK began sourcing more from non-EU suppliers (e.g., Thailand, Brazil) rather than from the EU, or because customs formalities reduced trade volumes.

Source: General Overview — Partners

2.2. Thailand has consolidated its position as the EU's primary external supplier

Thailand has been the EU's largest non-EU supplier of prepared chicken meat throughout the period. Import values grew from €205 million to €351 million (+71.5%), accounting for 47% of total EU imports from non-EU countries in 2025. Thailand's dominance reflects its established poultry processing industry, which has long served European markets with canned and prepared chicken products, and its competitive cost structure.

Brazil remains the second-largest supplier (€141 million, +19.0%), maintaining a stable but more slowly growing share. Together, Thailand and Brazil supplied roughly two-thirds of the EU's non-EU imports by value.

Source: General Overview — Partners

2.3. China has emerged as a major and volatile supplier

Chinese exports to the EU in this category grew by an extraordinary 481%, rising from €29 million in 2015 to €169 million in 2025. This made China the third-largest non-EU supplier by 2025, overtaking the United Kingdom. However, this growth has been accompanied by significant volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.70), suggesting that the trade relationship remains sensitive to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) approvals, quota allocations, and geopolitical factors. The EU granted new poultry import authorisations for Chinese facilities in recent years, which likely contributed to this surge.

Source: General Overview — Partners

2.4. New export markets have grown rapidly from a small base

Beyond the UK, EU exporters have diversified into several fast-growing markets. Exports to Switzerland grew by 220% to €34 million; to Canada by 1,156% to €10 million; and to Albania by 100% to €6.5 million. While the UK still absorbs 77% of EU exports by value, the share has decreased from 81%, indicating gradual diversification. The volatility of these smaller markets is generally higher (e.g., Ukraine CV = 1.43, Canada CV = 0.61), reflecting their more episodic and contract-driven nature.

Source: Volatility & Shocks

3. The 2022 Price Shock and Its Lasting Effects

2022 saw an unprecedented surge in import prices from all major suppliers

The most significant price event in the dataset occurred in 2022, when import prices from the three largest non-EU suppliers spiked sharply. The data identifies this as a coordinated shock event:

The abnormality scores — which measure how far a price movement deviates from historical norms — are extremely high for China (16.2) and Brazil (9.2), indicating that the 2022 spike was well outside normal trading ranges.

Source: Volatility & Shocks — Supply Shocks

3.1. The 2022 shock was driven by converging global pressures

The 2022 price spike can be attributed to the convergence of several factors: the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemic that severely disrupted poultry production worldwide; the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which drove up feed grain and energy costs; and global logistics disruptions still lingering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the EU's three main suppliers — Thailand, Brazil, and China — all experienced these pressures simultaneously, import prices rose across the board. The shock was particularly acute for Chinese imports, likely because the nascent trade relationship was more sensitive to cost and supply disruptions.

3.2. Prices have since moderated, but the trajectory remains elevated

While the data does not provide full time series to trace the post-shock recovery, the 2025 unit price for imports (€3,840/t) is only marginally above the 2015 level (€3,826/t), suggesting that the 2022 spike was largely transitory. However, export prices have not retraced: at €4,914/t in 2025, they remain 28% above their 2015 level, implying that higher-value markets and inflationary pressures in the EU's key export destinations have become more permanent.

3.3. Import concentration has remained stable, but export concentration has declined slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports increased modestly from 3,024 to 3,187 (+5.4%), indicating a slight increase in supplier concentration — largely driven by Thailand's growing dominance. For exports, the HHI decreased from 6,669 to 6,082 (−8.8%), reflecting the gradual diversification away from near-total reliance on the UK market. Despite this improvement, export concentration remains very high, leaving EU exporters exposed to UK-specific regulatory or demand risks.

Source: Market Structure — Concentration

3.4. Poland and Ireland have emerged as the EU's production and export powerhouses

Within the EU, the most specialised producers of this product (measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA) are Poland (RSCA = 0.51), Croatia (0.44), Denmark (0.36), Romania (0.27), and the Netherlands (0.20). Poland's export value more than doubled from €47 million to €127 million (+168%), making it the EU's largest exporter of prepared chicken meat outside the bloc. Ireland, already a major player, grew from €76 million to €110 million (+45%). Germany also nearly doubled its exports to €77 million.

On the import side, the Netherlands remains the EU's largest gateway for prepared chicken imports (€394 million), followed by Ireland (€187 million, +208%) and Germany (€88 million). Romania's imports grew from a negligible €0.6 million to €9.7 million, suggesting rapid market development.

Source: Market Structure — Specialisation

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in prepared chicken meat has grown substantially in both directions, with exports growing faster than imports in value terms. The most transformative event has been Brexit, which reclassified UK–EU poultry trade from intra-community to external flows, simultaneously boosting the apparent size of EU exports while reducing the UK's role as an import supplier. The global supply landscape has been reshaped by the rapid rise of China as a supplier, the consolidation of Thailand's dominance, and the severe but temporary 2022 price shock driven by avian influenza, energy costs, and geopolitical disruptions. Within the EU, Poland has emerged as the leading exporter, while the Netherlands continues to serve as the primary import hub. Despite some diversification, EU export concentration remains high, with the UK absorbing over three-quarters of all exports — a structural vulnerability that warrants monitoring. Overall, the EU's prepared chicken meat market has become larger, more dynamic, and more globally integrated over the past decade.