Market evolution: Fish and seafood extracts (CN 1603) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 1603 — Extracts and juices of meat, fish or crustaceans, molluscs or other aquatic invertebrates — over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis covers the EU's trade with non-EU countries, focusing on value, volume, pricing, partner dynamics, market structure, and vulnerability indicators. Over the decade under review, the EU transformed from a net importer into a pronounced net exporter of these products, a shift driven by surging exports — particularly to Japan — and a simultaneous contraction in imports from traditional suppliers like Brazil and the United Kingdom. The report identifies and interprets the main dynamics underpinning this structural transformation.

1. From net importer to net exporter: A decade-long structural shift

1.1. EU exports nearly doubled while imports contracted sharply

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 1603 products grew substantially: export value rose from €23.4 million to €42.1 million (+79.9%), and export volumes increased from 4,793 tonnes to 7,392 tonnes (+54.2%). Over the same period, EU imports declined dramatically — from €32.2 million to €13.5 million in value (−58.0%) and from 3,876 tonnes to 1,358 tonnes in volume (−65.0%).

Source: General Overview

1.2. The trade balance reversed from deficit to large surplus

The EU's trade balance for CN 1603 shifted from a deficit of €8.7 million in 2015 to a surplus of €28.6 million in 2025. Net import reliance, which stood at +17.5% in 2015 (indicating the EU depended on external suppliers), moved to −18.9% in 2025, signalling that the EU became a net exporter. This represents a full reversal of the sector's trade orientation.

Source: Net import reliance

1.3. Unit values rose on both sides, but import prices remain considerably higher

Export prices increased from €4,886/t to €5,699/t (+16.7%), while import prices rose from €8,298/t to €9,942/t (+19.8%). Throughout the period, import unit values consistently exceeded export unit values, suggesting that the EU tends to import higher-value or more processed extracts while exporting comparatively lower-unit-value products. The widening gap may also reflect shifts in product mix or sourcing patterns.

2. Shifting partner geography: Japan's dominance on the export side, Brazil's decline on the import side

2.1. Japan emerged as the EU's primary export market, nearly doubling its intake

Japan was already the EU's largest export destination for CN 1603 in 2015, absorbing €10.4 million. By 2025, Japanese imports from the EU had grown to €20.0 million (+91.8%), accounting for a dominant share of EU export value. This reflects the strong Japanese demand for European seafood extracts, likely driven by the EU–Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (entered into force in February 2019) and sustained culinary and industrial demand.

Source: Top partners — exports

2.2. Emerging export markets expanded rapidly from low bases

Several smaller export destinations saw extraordinary growth over the decade. The United Arab Emirates went from a negligible €34,264 to €1.6 million (+4,577%), Canada from €40,208 to €485,951 (+1,109%), and the United States from €1.6 million to €3.2 million (+105%). These trends point to geographic diversification of EU exports, with growing penetration in the Middle East and North America.

2.3. Brazil remained the largest import source but saw its share shrink

Brazil was by far the EU's principal supplier of CN 1603 products in 2015, with imports valued at €21.6 million — representing the lion's share of total EU imports. By 2025, Brazilian shipments had fallen to €8.5 million (−60.7%). Despite this contraction, Brazil remained the top supplier, reflecting the enduring competitiveness of the Brazilian meat-extract industry.

Source: Top partners — imports

2.4. Brexit and policy shifts contributed to the collapse of UK trade flows

The United Kingdom's position underwent a dramatic transformation on both sides of the ledger. EU imports from the UK fell from €6.9 million to €0.5 million (−92.5%), while EU exports to the UK rose from €2.6 million to €4.8 million (+85.2%). The sharp import decline likely reflects post-Brexit regulatory divergence, new customs formalities, and the reclassification of intra-EU flows as extra-EU trade after January 2021. A supply shock in UK import prices was detected in 2021, with an abnormality score of 9.7 and a unit-value shift of +98.7%, coinciding with the immediate post-Brexit transition period and COVID-related disruptions.

Source: Supply shocks

2.5. Norway bucked the import trend with strong growth

While most major import partners saw their trade with the EU decline, Norway was a notable exception: EU imports from Norway grew from €1.6 million to €3.0 million (+85.4%). Norway's position as a major seafood-producing nation and its participation in the European Economic Area may have facilitated this growth, as Norwegian suppliers partially filled the void left by the retreat of more distant partners.

3. Production surge and internal reorganisation within the EU

3.1. EU production volumes and values expanded enormously

EU domestic production of CN 1603 products grew from 7.2 million kg (2015) to 31.4 million kg (2025), a rise of +335.8%. Production value increased even more sharply, from €12.0 million to €154.1 million (+1,182.8%). This extraordinary expansion in domestic output is the fundamental driver behind the shift from net importer to net exporter: as EU producers scaled up, the bloc became less reliant on external suppliers and was able to redirect surpluses to international markets.

Source: Production volumes

3.2. France, Belgium, Spain, and the Netherlands led the export surge

Among EU Member States, France remained the largest exporter of CN 1603 throughout the period, growing modestly from €12.9 million to €14.7 million (+13.2%). However, the most dramatic export growth was recorded by the Netherlands (+761.6%, from €0.8M to €6.9M), Belgium (+399.1%, from €1.6M to €8.2M), and Spain (+345.5%, from €1.3M to €6.0M). Poland also emerged as a growing exporter (+388.5%). Together, these four countries reshaped the EU's export landscape, suggesting the emergence of new processing hubs or the expansion of existing capacity in Western and Central Europe.

Source: Top reporters — exports

3.3. Importing Member States saw large declines, with some pivoting to alternative suppliers

Belgium, which was the EU's largest importing Member State in 2015 (€12.3M), saw its imports fall to €3.8 million (−69.0%). Spain and Ireland experienced even steeper declines (−95.2% and −86.7% respectively). Meanwhile, Sweden (+293.1%) and Germany (+821.0%) saw rising import levels, suggesting a partial geographic reorientation of import flows within the EU. The reorientation from traditional suppliers (Brazil, UK) towards Norway may partly explain the growth observed in Nordic countries like Sweden.

Source: Top reporters — imports

3.4. Specialisation remained concentrated in a handful of Western European producers

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 confirms that the EU's production of CN 1603 is concentrated among a small number of Member States. Sweden (RSCA = 0.60), Italy (0.52), France (0.47), Belgium (0.44), and Denmark (0.30) are the most specialised producers. By contrast, countries such as Romania, Greece, Latvia, and Croatia show near-zero specialisation. This concentration is consistent with the export data and suggests that the EU's export growth has been driven by a limited number of established production centres with strong comparative advantages.

Source: Specialisation

3.5. Trade intensity and export propensity declined as production absorbed more domestic output

Despite the growth in absolute exports, the EU's trade intensity fell from 77.8% to 25.3%, and export propensity dropped from 59.8% to 21.3%. These declines are consistent with the massive expansion in domestic production: as the EU's output grew more than fourfold, a larger share of production was absorbed by the internal market, and the relative weight of trade (both imports and exports) in total supply diminished.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for fish and seafood extracts (CN 1603) underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from being a net importer reliant on Brazil, the United Kingdom, and other third-country suppliers, to becoming a significant net exporter with a trade surplus of €28.6 million. This reversal was underpinned by a more-than-fourfold expansion in EU domestic production, which both displaced imports and fuelled export growth. Japan consolidated its position as the EU's dominant export market, while emerging destinations like the United Arab Emirates, Canada, and the United States gained importance. On the import side, Brexit and regulatory changes contributed to the near-disappearance of UK-origin imports, and Brazil's share contracted substantially. Within the EU, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain drove export growth, while a small group of specialised producers — notably Sweden, Italy, and France — anchored the sector's comparative advantage. Looking forward, the EU's reduced import reliance and growing export base suggest a sector with increasing strategic autonomy, though the concentration of specialisation in a few Member States and the vulnerability of certain supply chains (notably Brazil) warrant continued monitoring.