Market evolution: Prepared fish (CN 1604) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in prepared or preserved fish and caviar (CN 1604) over the period 2015–2025. The product category encompasses a broad range of processed fish products, including canned tuna, sardines, anchovies, herring, mackerel, and other prepared fish, as well as caviar and caviar substitutes. The detailed product scope covers over a dozen sub-categories from salmon and herring to tunas and anchovies.

Over the decade, the EU market for CN 1604 has undergone significant structural transformation. While both import and export values have grown substantially—by 47.9% and 42.6% respectively—the underlying dynamics reveal a story of diverging trends: rising unit values, shifting supplier geography, growing concentration of imports, and an increasingly specialised export base among certain EU Member States. This report is organised around three main findings that characterise this evolution.

I. A market shaped by diverging value and volume dynamics

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 1604 over the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling of trade values from underlying volumes. This divergence, observable on both the import and export sides, reflects a broader story of price inflation, product mix shifts, and changing market fundamentals.

Import values have surged while volumes have grown more modestly

EU imports of CN 1604 rose from €2,354 million in 2015 to €3,482 million in 2025, an increase of 47.9%. Over the same period, import volumes grew from 585,079 tonnes to 703,283 tonnes (+20.2%). The trade overview shows that unit import prices rose from €4,024/t to €4,951/t (+23.0%), meaning that more than half of the value growth was driven by price increases rather than quantity expansion.

A notable concentration of this price increase occurred around 2022, when the supply shock analysis identifies significant price shocks for imports from the Philippines (abnormality index of 40.6, +30.0% shift), Ecuador (abnormality 31.2, +26.6% shift), and Thailand (abnormality 9.7, +20.6% shift). These shocks coincide with global supply chain disruptions and feed cost inflation that characterised the post-pandemic period.

The EU's export performance reveals a pronounced "price over volume" strategy

EU exports tell a more dramatic story of value-volume divergence. Export values increased from €821 million to €1,171 million (+42.6%), yet export volumes actually declined from 211,867 tonnes to 176,193 tonnes (−16.8%). The result is a remarkable 71.5% increase in average export unit values, from €3,876/t to €6,646/t.

This suggests that EU exporters have moved up the value chain—exporting fewer tonnes but at considerably higher prices—likely reflecting a shift towards higher-value processed products (such as salmon and premium sardine preparations) and away from commodity-grade canned fish.

The trade deficit has widened considerably

Despite the EU's impressive export price growth, the net import reliance data reveals that the trade deficit grew from −€1,533 million in 2015 to −€2,311 million in 2025 (+50.7% in absolute terms). This is partly explained by the sheer volume advantage of imports (703 kt vs. 176 kt exported). However, the net import reliance as a share of apparent consumption actually decreased from 22.1% to 13.3%, suggesting that EU domestic production has grown significantly to absorb some of the market demand—consistent with the reported production data showing substantial increases in production volumes over the period.

II. A shifting geography of supply and demand

Beyond aggregate figures, the CN 1604 trade flows reveal important shifts in the geographic composition of both the EU's suppliers and its export destinations. These shifts have implications for supply chain resilience and market access strategies.

Ecuador has consolidated its position as the dominant import supplier

The partner analysis shows that Ecuador's share of EU imports has grown dramatically, from €395 million in 2015 to €972 million in 2025 (+145.9%). This increase—driven primarily by tuna supplies—has made Ecuador by far the largest single supplier, accounting for approximately 28% of total CN 1604 import value in 2025. China has seen even faster growth in percentage terms (+220.7%, from €74 million to €238 million), while traditional suppliers like Morocco (+36.3%) and Mauritius (−0.7%) have seen more modest changes.

Import concentration has risen significantly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased from 699 to 1,111 (+58.9%), confirming a substantial rise in supplier concentration. For a market as large as the EU's, an HHI above 1,000 indicates a moderate level of concentration—driven largely by the growth of Ecuador. This growing dependence on a single major supplier raises questions about supply chain vulnerability, particularly given the volatility analysis showing that Ecuador's import flows have a coefficient of variation of 0.21.

Export destinations have diversified while the UK remains dominant

On the export side, the picture is almost the inverse. The UK remains the EU's largest export market for CN 1604 (€340 million in 2025, −3.9% from 2015), but the export partner data reveals spectacular growth in other markets: the United States (+253.3% to €201 million), Ukraine (+490.7% to €50 million), Serbia (+141.2% to €34 million), and Canada (+231.0% to €46 million). Correspondingly, the export HHI fell from 2,087 to 1,339 (−35.8%), reflecting a meaningful diversification of the EU's export base away from heavy dependence on the UK market.

Spain and the Netherlands have driven import growth, while Poland and Italy have led export expansion

The EU Member State analysis shows significant shifts in the intra-EU distribution of trade. On the import side, Spain nearly doubled its intake (from €543 million to €1,068 million, +96.7%) and the Netherlands more than doubled (from €207 million to €429 million, +106.6%). On the export side, Poland (+151.8% to €209 million) and Italy (+129.3% to €182 million) have emerged as major exporters, while Germany (−14.6%) and Denmark (−28.5%) have seen their export values decline.

III. Product composition reflects structural shifts in consumer preferences and supply patterns

The sub-category data for CN 1604 reveals that the overall trade trends mask highly differentiated dynamics at the product level, with some segments growing rapidly while others stagnate or decline.

Tuna dominates EU imports and continues to grow

The product segment breakdown shows that prepared or preserved tunas, skipjack and Atlantic bonito (CN 160414) is overwhelmingly the largest import category, reaching 525,192 tonnes and €2,543 million in 2025. Import volumes in this segment grew by 32.7% over the period, with unit prices rising from €3,998/t to €4,842/t (+21.1%). Tuna alone accounts for approximately 73% of total CN 1604 import volume and 73% of import value, underscoring the EU's heavy dependence on global tuna supply chains.

Anchovies and "other fish" show the strongest import value growth among non-tuna categories

Beyond tuna, the fastest-growing import segments by value have been anchovies (CN 160416, +53.3% to €229 million) and the residual category of other prepared fish in pieces (CN 160419, +127.4% to €193 million). Anchovies are notable for commanding by far the highest unit prices among imports, averaging €9,764/t in 2025—nearly double the price of tuna—reflecting their positioning as a premium product in Mediterranean cuisine. By contrast, herring imports (CN 160412) show high price volatility, with unit values fluctuating between €1,416/t and €2,477/t over the period.

EU exports are shifting towards higher-value segments

On the export side, the composition has evolved considerably. The catch-all category of "other prepared fish in pieces" (CN 160419) remains the largest by volume (38,997 t) but has declined from 54,336 t in 2015. Meanwhile, salmon exports (CN 160411) have nearly doubled in volume (from 2,909 t to 5,736 t) and value (from €27 million to €75 million), with unit prices averaging €13,099/t in 2025—the highest of any sub-category. Sardine exports (CN 160413) have also shown strong value growth (+71.1% to €155 million) despite declining volumes, with prices surging from €1,934/t to €5,120/t (+165%).

Mackerel trade has undergone a dramatic contraction

One of the most striking product-level trends is the collapse of mackerel (CN 160415) as an import category. Volumes fell from 15,044 tonnes to 7,429 tonnes (−50.6%), and while prices recovered somewhat in recent years, the segment has lost its former significance. This may reflect changing consumer preferences, quota adjustments, or competition from alternative supply sources. On the export side, mackerel has been more resilient, with stable volumes around 12,000 tonnes and rising values (from €64 million to €82 million).

Conclusion

The EU market for prepared and preserved fish (CN 1604) between 2015 and 2025 has been characterised by three overarching dynamics: a pronounced inflation of unit values on both the import and export sides, a geographic reorientation of trade flows with growing supplier concentration on the import side and diversification on the export side, and a product mix shift towards higher-value segments.

The widening trade deficit in absolute terms (from −€1.5 billion to −€2.3 billion) is a structural feature of a market where the EU consumes far more processed fish than it exports. However, the declining net import reliance (from 22.1% to 13.3%) and the substantial growth in EU production suggest that the bloc's domestic processing industry has strengthened its position. The growing concentration of imports around Ecuador and a handful of other suppliers—while not yet critical given the absolute HHI levels—warrants attention from a supply security perspective, particularly in a context of increasing climate-related pressures on global fisheries.

Looking forward, the EU's success in raising export unit values by over 70% while diversifying its export markets represents a notable competitive achievement. The continued growth of premium segments such as prepared salmon and the strong performance of EU exporters in markets like the United States, Canada, and Ukraine suggest that the industry is adapting to higher-value market opportunities even as the overall volume footprint contracts.