Market evolution: Prepared fish (CN 160420) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in prepared or preserved fish excluding whole or in pieces (customs code CN 160420) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of processed fish products — from surimi preparations to canned or smoked tuna, sardines, anchovies, and salmon — that are not traded as whole fish or identifiable fillets. Because CN 160420 is a residual heading bundling seven sub-lines, it captures a diverse set of industrial fish-processing activities across the EU. Drawing on trade data at annual frequency, the analysis below identifies three overarching dynamics: the progressive narrowing of the EU's trade deficit in this category, a pronounced geographic diversification of both import and export partners, and a structural realignment of the product mix toward higher-value segments and rising unit prices. General overview

1. A Narrowing Deficit: From Import Dependence Toward Trade Balance

Over the decade examined, the EU moved from a sizeable trade deficit in CN 160420 to near-balance. Import values fell while export values rose, and unit prices climbed on both sides of the ledger.

The EU's external deficit shrank by over 93 %

In 2015 the EU posted a trade deficit of €68.0 million in prepared fish (excl. whole or in pieces). By 2025 this had narrowed to just €4.6 million — a 93.2 % improvement. The driver was twofold: exports grew robustly while imports contracted.

Trade overview

Export volumes and prices both increased

EU export quantities rose from 38,412 t to 44,107 t (+14.8 %), while the average export price climbed from €3,732/t to €4,486/t (+20.2 %). The combined effect was a 38 % jump in export value. The price increase signals either a shift toward higher-value product forms (e.g., smoked or seasoned preparations) or general inflation in input costs passed through to international buyers.

Import volumes fell more steeply than values

On the import side, quantities declined from 66,159 t to 55,621 t (−15.9 %), but the average import price rose from €3,195/t to €3,640/t (+13.9 %). The value contraction was therefore only −4.2 % — the price increase partially offset the volume drop. This suggests that the EU was sourcing fewer tonnes but paying more per tonne, consistent with a tightening of global supply or a premiumisation of the import basket.

EU self-reliance improved slightly

The net import reliance ratio — which measures how much of domestic apparent consumption is covered by net imports — declined from 1.68 % to 1.21 % (−27.7 %). While the EU remained a net importer in this product category throughout the period, the trend indicates a modest improvement in the bloc's capacity to meet its own demand, driven both by domestic production and by the rise in exports. Net import reliance

2. Geographic Diversification: Shifting Partners and Declining Concentration

Both the import and export sides of the EU's trade in CN 160420 became markedly less concentrated over the period. Traditional partners lost share while new or previously marginal suppliers and buyers gained prominence.

Import concentration declined as new suppliers emerged

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import values fell from 940 to 810 (−13.8 %), indicating a meaningful diversification of sourcing. The key dynamics among the top seven import partners are summarised below.

Top import partners

Thailand remained the single largest supplier but lost more than a quarter of its value, likely reflecting the structural decline of surimi imports (see Section 3). Ecuador stands out with a near-tripling of export value to the EU, rising from €7.1 million to €20.2 million — a shift that may be linked to the EU–Ecuador trade agreement within the EU–Andean Community framework and Ecuador's expanding tuna-processing sector. Viet Nam also nearly doubled its shipments, consistent with the country's rapid aquaculture and fish-processing growth. Meanwhile, Iceland's decline may reflect both competition from lower-cost Asian suppliers and fluctuating raw-material availability.

Export concentration collapsed as the EU found new markets

The export HHI fell from 2,836 to 1,231 (−56.6 %) — a dramatic diversification away from the historically dominant UK market.

Top export partners

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export destination but its share fell significantly — part of the broader post-Brexit reorientation of EU trade flows. The most striking growth came from Ukraine (+541.8 %), Morocco (+1,726.1 %), and the United States (+191.2 %). The surge in exports to Ukraine likely accelerated after 2022 as the EU deepened economic ties following Russia's invasion; Morocco's growth may reflect the country's role as a re-export hub and its growing middle-class demand for processed fish; and the US increase points to successful market penetration by EU processors in a high-value market. Export concentration

Within the EU, Lithuania and Germany emerged as export powerhouses

On the exporter side, Spain remained the EU's leading exporter (€34.0 million in 2025), but Lithuania surged from €13.3 million to €36.9 million (+178.7 %), making it the largest single EU exporter by the end of the period. Germany also more than doubled its exports (€6.2M → €14.8M, +137.2 %), while Poland grew steadily (+42.1 %). On the import side, Italy saw a sharp contraction (−39.7 %), while Spain (+56.5 %) and the Netherlands (+98.9 %) absorbed much of the displaced volume. Top EU exporters

Supply-side volatility was highest among niche partners

Volatility analysis (coefficient of variation) reveals that the most price-stable import partners were India (CV = 0.10) and South Korea (CV = 0.12), while the most volatile were Türkiye (CV = 0.58), Iceland (CV = 0.42), and Indonesia (CV = 0.40). On the export side, Morocco was by far the most volatile destination (CV = 0.75), consistent with its rapid but potentially episodic growth. Volatility analysis

Three notable price shocks were detected: a +23 % price spike in imports from China in 2022 (likely linked to COVID-related supply disruptions and energy-cost pass-through), a +44 % surge in Indonesian import prices in 2017, and a +71 % jump in UK-sourced import prices in 2017. Supply shocks

3. Structural Shifts in Product Mix and Pricing

Beneath the headline trade figures, the composition of the EU's import and export baskets in CN 160420 changed substantially. Surimi lost ground, sardines and miscellaneous fish preparations gained prominence, and unit prices rose across nearly every sub-line.

Surimi imports fell sharply while tuna held steady

The two dominant import sub-lines — tuna preparations (CN 16042070) and surimi (CN 16042005) — followed divergent paths. Tuna imports were essentially flat in volume (27,628 t → 27,674 t) but their share of total import value grew from 42.8 % to 46.9 % as other categories shrank. Surimi imports, by contrast, fell from 25,526 t to 16,819 t (−34.1 %) in volume and from €59.1 million to €47.1 million (−20.3 %) in value. This decline likely reflects both the EU's own growing surimi-processing capacity (Lithuania's export surge is partly surimi-driven) and shifting consumer preferences.

The most striking volume growth came from the sardine/bonito/mackerel sub-line (CN 16042050), which surged from just 520 t to 4,765 t — a ninefold increase — and from €2.0 million to €18.9 million in value. Meanwhile, anchovy imports collapsed from 3,789 t to 1,375 t (−63.7 % in volume, −61.9 % in value), and salmon imports dwindled to near-irrelevance (870 t → 111 t). Product segment breakdown

Export growth was led by surimi and miscellaneous fish preparations

On the export side, surimi (CN 16042005) volumes grew from 10,096 t to 17,221 t (+70.6 %) and values more than doubled from €27.8 million to €58.1 million (+109.2 %). The "other prepared fish" category (CN 16042090) also expanded strongly in value (€40.9M → €68.6M, +67.7 %), becoming the single largest export segment by value. Tuna exports, by contrast, fell from 9,367 t to 6,120 t (−34.7 %) in volume — the reverse of the import trend — suggesting that the EU increasingly re-exports processed tuna to non-EU markets while also importing more for domestic consumption.

Unit prices rose across most sub-lines

Almost every product sub-line experienced higher unit prices over the decade, both in imports and exports. The table below illustrates the trend for the four largest categories.

Export prices consistently exceeded import prices, reflecting the EU's position as a net processor that adds value to imported or domestically caught raw fish. The steepest import-price increase occurred in the "other" category (CN 16042090), where prices nearly doubled from €3,759/t to €6,500/t, possibly indicating a shift toward more premium preparations within this residual heading.

Domestic production lost volume but gained value

EU domestic production data (available from PRODCOM) shows that production quantities declined from 676,023 t to 642,000 t (−5.0 %), but the production value rose from €2.61 billion to €3.42 billion (+30.8 %). This implies a significant increase in the average production value per kilogram, from roughly €3.87/kg to €5.33/kg — a 37.8 % rise that mirrors the trade-price trends and points to a general inflation of fish-processing costs and/or a shift toward higher-margin product forms. Production volumes

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for prepared or preserved fish (CN 160420) underwent a structural transformation. The most significant development was the near-elimination of the trade deficit, driven by a 38 % rise in exports that outpaced a modest 4.2 % decline in imports. This shift was accompanied by a striking geographic diversification: the EU's export market became far less dependent on the United Kingdom, with new growth poles emerging in Ukraine, the United States, Morocco, and Switzerland. On the import side, Ecuador and Viet Nam gained share at the expense of Thailand and Iceland.

At the product level, the mix evolved toward higher-value preparations. Surimi imports declined as the EU — particularly Lithuania and other Baltic states — built up its own processing and re-export capacity. Sardine and miscellaneous fish imports grew, while anchovy and salmon preparations faded in importance. Unit prices rose across virtually all sub-lines and on both the import and export sides, pointing to either genuine value-addition in processing, broader food-price inflation, or a combination of both.

Looking ahead, the key risks and opportunities for this market lie in the sustainability of the EU's export diversification (particularly to politically sensitive markets like Ukraine and Morocco), the continued competitiveness of Asian surimi processors, and the capacity of EU producers to maintain price premiums in an increasingly globalised fish-processing industry. The volatility observed in certain partner relationships — notably Morocco and Türkiye on the import side — suggests that supply-chain resilience remains a relevant concern.