Market evolution: Canned tuna (CN 160414) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in canned tuna (CN 160414, prepared or preserved tunas, skipjack and Atlantic bonito, whole or in pieces, excluding minced) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The EU is a major global player in this market, both as a significant importer and a substantial processor and re-exporter. The period was characterized by notable shifts in trade values, volumes, and partner relationships, against a backdrop of increasing price inflation and a strengthening of the EU's internal production capacity. This report examines these dynamics through the lens of trade balance, supply chain realignment, and market resilience.

I. The Decoupling of Value and Volume Growth

A dominant trend over the decade was the divergent performance of trade values and physical volumes. While monetary flows expanded significantly, the growth in tonnes was more moderate, and in some cases negative, highlighting the powerful impact of price inflation.

Import values surged while import volumes showed slower growth

EU imports of canned tuna saw their value increase by 60.7% from €1.58 billion in 2015 to €2.54 billion in 2025. In contrast, import volumes grew by a more modest 32.7%, from 395,866 tonnes to 525,192 tonnes. This indicates that a substantial portion of the value growth, particularly from 2020 onwards, was driven by rising unit prices rather than an equivalent expansion in physical quantities. The average import price per tonne rose from €3,998 in 2015 to €4,842 in 2025, a 21.1% increase. The impact of price spikes was particularly pronounced in 2022 and 2023, reflecting global supply chain pressures and inflationary trends. The trade dashboard provides a comprehensive view of these aggregate trends.

Export performance followed a similar price-driven pattern

EU exports also experienced strong value growth, rising by 39.5% from €160.8 million to €224.2 million. However, export volumes actually declined by 13.5%, falling from 34,107 tonnes to 29,507 tonnes. This resulted in a 61.2% surge in the average export price, from €4,715 to €7,599 per tonne. This dramatic price increase far outpaced import price growth, suggesting that EU exporters may have shifted towards higher-value product segments or successfully passed on cost increases. The contrasting trajectories for imports and exports led to a widening of the EU's trade deficit, which expanded by 63.1% to reach -€2.32 billion in 2025.

The trade deficit widened, driven by a structural imbalance in volumes

The persistent and growing trade deficit underscores the EU's fundamental role as a net importer to satisfy its large consumer market. The deficit grew despite rising export values because the increase in the value of imports was larger in absolute terms. This structural imbalance is a core characteristic of the EU market for this commodity, reflecting the limited availability of raw tuna stocks within the EU and the high cost of domestic production.

II. A Realignment of Global Supply Chains

The decade saw significant changes in the geographic sources of the EU's tuna imports, indicating a realignment of global supply chains and processing hubs. Some traditional partners saw their dominance increase, while new sources gained prominence.

Latin America consolidated its leading position, with Ecuador as the primary partner

Ecuador became overwhelmingly the EU's largest supplier, with import values soaring by 145.7% to €947.4 million. Its share of total EU tuna imports grew substantially. This growth reflects Ecuador's established role as a major tuna processing hub with direct access to Pacific fish stocks. Other Latin American suppliers like Mexico and El Salvador also maintained a presence. The partner concentration data illustrates this geographic consolidation.

Southeast Asian suppliers showed mixed fortunes

The Philippines and Papua New Guinea were key suppliers, with import values growing by 62.2% and 115.1%, respectively. However, their growth was eclipsed by that of Ecuador and China. Thailand, while still a player, exhibited high volatility (Coefficient of Variation of 0.55), indicating less stable trade flows. The growth of imports from China (360.2% value increase) points to its expanding role as a processor and exporter of canned tuna products.

African supplier relationships evolved, with some diversifying and others declining

Traditional suppliers in Africa showed divergent trends. Imports from Mauritius and Seychelles remained substantial but grew slowly (1.6% and 38.3%, respectively). In contrast, imports from Côte d’Ivoire fell sharply by 41.7%. This shift may reflect changing competitiveness, sourcing strategies, or processing capacity within the African continent. The increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports from 1,028 to 1,701 indicates a significant rise in supply concentration, meaning the EU became more reliant on a smaller group of key partners.

EU export destinations shifted, with a decline in some traditional outlets

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the largest destination but saw its share decline, with a 35.3% drop in value. Exports to Ceuta and Melilla—Spanish autonomous cities in North Africa—plummeted (-90.4% and -85.4%), suggesting a re-routing of trade. In contrast, exports to Canada grew by an impressive 304.0%, and shipments to Switzerland increased steadily. This suggests EU exporters are diversifying their markets outside of their immediate neighbourhood.

III. Strengthening Production and Navigating Market Volatility

While heavily reliant on imports, the EU demonstrated a concurrent strengthening of its domestic processing industry and navigated periods of significant price volatility, contributing to a slight improvement in its trade autonomy metrics.

EU domestic production grew in both volume and, especially, value

EU production of canned tuna (which includes processing of imported raw material) increased by 8.8% in volume, reaching 960 million kilograms in 2025. More impressively, production value surged by 111.3% to over €8 billion. This indicates a move towards higher-value-added production within the EU. Spain and Portugal were the most specialised producers, holding high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.79 and 0.76, respectively. The production volumes and specialisation data highlight this industrial capacity.

The market experienced notable price shocks from key suppliers

Volatility analysis identified significant supply-side shocks. In 2022, import prices from Ecuador and the Philippines spiked abnormally (abnormality scores of 30.6 and 35.6), coinciding with global inflationary pressures. Earlier, in 2017, a major price shock was recorded for exports to Libya. These events underscore the sensitivity of the market to geopolitical, logistical, and cost pressures within supplier countries. The volatility dashboard details these fluctuations.

Vulnerability metrics showed a modest improvement

Despite increased import concentration, the EU's net import reliance as a percentage of domestic apparent consumption fell from 28.9% in 2015 to 21.0% in 2025, a 27.2% decrease. Trade intensity and export propensity also declined, indicating that while trade volumes grew, they did so at a slower pace than domestic production. This suggests that the growth in the EU's own production and processing capacity provided a partial buffer against import dependency. The autonomy and vulnerability metrics reflect this nuanced position.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for canned tuna underwent significant transformation. The headline story is one of value inflation outpacing volume growth, which widened the trade deficit. This occurred alongside a strategic realignment of supply chains, with consolidation around Ecuador and shifts among African and Asian partners, leading to increased import concentration. Concurrently, the EU's domestic processing sector strengthened, contributing to a slight reduction in net import reliance. The market demonstrated resilience in navigating price shocks from key suppliers. Looking forward, the interplay between global supply chain stability, raw material costs, and the continued evolution of the EU's processing industry will remain critical factors shaping this vital seafood market. The detailed data supporting these findings is available on the product overview dashboard.