Market evolution: Milling industry products (CN 11) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in products of the milling industry, malt, starches, inulin and wheat gluten (Combined Nomenclature heading 11) over the 2015–2025 period. CN 11 is a broad heading that bundles nine four-digit subheadings — from wheat flour (1101) and starches (1108) to malt (1107) and wheat gluten (1109) — serving diverse end-uses across the food, feed and industrial sectors. The EU is a major global player in this space, with a structural trade surplus that widened considerably over the decade. The period under review was marked by a pronounced commodity-price shock in 2022–2023 and by notable shifts in both the product mix and geographic orientation of trade.

Detailed data for the overall trade overview.

1. The EU's dominant and expanding net-export position

1.1 The trade surplus widened by 40 % despite flat export volumes

Over 2015–2025, EU extra-EU exports of CN 11 products rose from €2.81 billion to €4.00 billion (+42.0 % in value), while export volumes barely changed, moving from 5.45 million tonnes to 5.35 million tonnes (−1.8 %). The implication is clear: virtually all of the export-value growth was driven by rising unit prices, which climbed from €517/t to €747/t (+44.6 %). Imports followed a similar upward trajectory in value — from €339 million to €530 million (+56.3 %) — but here quantity also expanded meaningfully (+34.8 %). The net trade balance grew from €2.48 billion to €3.47 billion (+40.1 %), confirming the EU's structurally strong competitive position in this sector.

Trade overview data

1.2 Domestic production underpinned the export surplus

EU production volumes grew from 48.3 billion kg to 54.9 billion kg (+13.7 %), but the real story is in production value, which nearly doubled from €13.2 billion to €25.3 billion (+92.0 %). The production peak in value terms was reached in 2022 at €29.8 billion, reflecting the global commodity price surge of that year. The gap between moderate volume growth and steep value growth mirrors the price inflation seen in trade data.

1.3 The EU became more export-oriented over the decade

Net import reliance (exports minus imports as a share of apparent consumption) deepened from −12.2 % to −15.6 %, confirming that the EU's net exporter position strengthened. Trade intensity (total extra-EU trade over production) rose from 13.0 % to 17.4 %, and export propensity (exports over production) increased from 12.0 % to 15.6 %, all pointing to a sector that is increasingly outward-looking.

2. The 2022–2023 price shock and its uneven legacy

2.1 Export unit prices spiked across virtually every subheading

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sharp price inflation that peaked around 2022–2023, driven by the combined effects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, global supply-chain disruptions and energy-cost pass-through. The table below shows export unit prices for key subheadings at three reference years:

Product segment breakdown

Wheat gluten (1109) experienced the most dramatic swing: export prices more than doubled from €1 334/t in 2015 to a peak of €2 289/t in 2023, before falling back to €1 360/t in 2025 — essentially returning to the starting level. By contrast, potato-based products (1105) saw a more permanent re-pricing: the 2025 unit price of €1 820/t remains 72 % above the 2015 level.

2.2 Systematic shock detection flags 2022 as the critical year

The shock-detection algorithm identified the most extreme abnormal price movements in 2022. The top three events were:

Supply-shock data

These price shocks were concentrated in developing-country destinations where EU exporters could pass through global grain-price inflation more aggressively. The involvement of Brazil — itself a major agricultural producer — hints at specific product-level tightness (likely starches and gluten) rather than general grain shortages.

2.3 Some prices have normalised; others have not

By 2025, wheat flour and malt export prices had retreated noticeably from their 2022–2023 peaks but remained well above pre-shock levels. Starches and potato-based products, by contrast, showed greater price stickiness. This divergence likely reflects differing input cost structures: wheat-based products benefited from the global wheat price correction after mid-2023, while starch and potato-derivative prices are more influenced by European energy costs and domestic crop conditions.

3. Structural shifts in product mix, partners and market concentration

3.1 The export product mix shifted away from wheat flour and towards starches

Examining export volumes by subheading, several structural shifts are apparent:

Malt (1107) remains the volume anchor at roughly 2.5 million tonnes, effectively unchanged over the decade. Wheat flour (1101) exports nearly halved in volume, falling from 795 000 t to 434 000 t — a dramatic decline that may reflect the loss of traditional African destination markets and increased competition from non-EU millers. Conversely, starches/inulin (1108), wheat gluten (1109) and worked cereal grains (1104) all posted strong volume gains, signalling a move toward higher-value-added processed products.

3.2 Import diversification accelerated, while export concentration remained stable

Import-side concentration (HHI) fell sharply from 3 008 to 1 736 (−42.3 %) by value, indicating that the EU diversified its supplier base substantially. In 2015, imports were heavily dominated by the United Kingdom (€181 million, over half of total imports); by 2025 the UK share had fallen to 38 % (€203 million of €530 million), even as its absolute value grew. New or expanded suppliers include:

Partner data

Ukraine (+273.5 %) and Moldova (+230.4 %) stand out with explosive growth, likely benefiting from EU trade-liberalisation measures (autonomous trade preferences introduced after 2022). Serbia's strong increase also reflects deepening EU integration.

Export-side concentration, by contrast, remained broadly flat (HHI around 400–436), consistent with a diversified portfolio of destination markets. The top export partners in 2025 were the United Kingdom (€495 M), the United States (€367 M), Brazil (€170 M) and Japan (€163 M). Notably, exports to Angola declined by 60.6 % and to Viet Nam by 35.7 %, while those to Brazil more than doubled (+116.7 %).

3.3 Germany, Belgium and France anchor the EU's export specialisation

Within the EU, export specialisation in CN 11 is highest among the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania) and Luxembourg in relative terms, but in absolute value the sector is dominated by:

Reporter data

The fastest growth came from Italy (+182.1 %), Denmark (+148.7 %) and Poland (+145.7 %), suggesting these member states captured new market segments or scaled up capacity in starches and specialty milling products. The Netherlands' near-doubling (+84.1 %) likely reflects both genuine production growth and the country's role as a re-export hub.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in milling-industry products (CN 11) over 2015–2025 is characterised by three overarching dynamics. First, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with the trade surplus reaching €3.5 billion by 2025 — a testament to strong domestic production capacity and competitive positioning in higher-value segments such as starches, wheat gluten and specialty potato products. Second, the 2022–2023 commodity price shock left a deep but partially reverting imprint on unit prices; some product categories (wheat flour, malt) have substantially normalised, while others (potato derivatives) show lasting re-pricing. Third, the product mix shifted notably: wheat-flour export volumes halved while starches, gluten and worked cereal grains expanded, pointing to a sector moving up the value chain. On the import side, the dramatic diversification of suppliers — driven in part by the EU's trade-liberalisation measures for Ukraine and the Western Balkans — reduced concentration risk but also increased exposure to geopolitical developments in those regions.