Market evolution: Processed cereal grains and germ (CN 1104) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in processed cereal grains and cereal germ (Combined Nomenclature code 1104) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of value-added cereal products — including rolled, flaked, hulled, pearled, sliced, and kibbled grains, as well as whole or ground cereal germ — but excludes cereal flours and milled rice. Based on the trade dashboard data, the EU's position in this market underwent a structural transformation over the decade: the bloc shifted from near-balance to becoming a significant net exporter, with exports more than doubling in value while imports contracted. Three main dynamics emerge from the data and structure the analysis below.

1. A decisive shift from trade balance to strong net export surplus

The EU's export growth far outpaced import contraction

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 1104 products surged from €94.2 million to €189.5 million, an increase of 101.2%. Over the same period, export volumes rose from 173,045 tonnes to 296,739 tonnes (+71.5%), while average export prices increased from €544/t to €639/t (+17.3%). Imports, by contrast, declined from €63.3 million to €56.0 million (-11.5%) in value and from 82,414 tonnes to 78,814 tonnes (-4.4%) in volume.

The EU's trade balance thus widened from €30.9 million to €133.5 million — a fourfold increase. The net import reliance, which is negative when the EU is a net exporter, deepened from −0.2% to −8.5%, confirming the structural shift toward export orientation.

Export propensity nearly tripled, signaling growing international competitiveness

The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 5.3% to 12.4% (+133.7%). Meanwhile, trade intensity (the combined import and export share of apparent consumption) increased from 9.9% to 16.3% (+64.6%). These indicators suggest that while the EU market remains relatively self-contained, the bloc's processed cereal sector has become markedly more export-oriented.

A select group of EU member states drove the export expansion

The export growth was not evenly distributed across the EU. Five member states stand out for their particularly strong growth trajectories:

Lithuania's trajectory is particularly striking: from a marginal exporter in 2015 to a major player by 2025. Germany remained the EU's single largest exporter throughout the period, but it was the Central and Eastern European states (Bulgaria, Lithuania) and Ireland that registered the most dramatic proportional growth. On the import side, the three traditionally largest importing member states — the Netherlands, France, and Germany — all reduced their imports by over 40%, while Ireland's imports actually grew by 62%, suggesting a shift in intra-EU processing and trade patterns.

2. Diverging partner dynamics: consolidation in exports, volatility in imports

Exports diversified geographically, with Türkiye and the UK as anchors

The concentration of EU exports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) by value, declined from 1,209 to 893 (−26.1%), indicating a meaningful diversification of export destinations. The top seven export partners in 2025 were:

Türkiye emerged as the EU's single most important export market for processed cereal grains, more than doubling its share. The strong growth in exports to Israel (+272%), Switzerland (+148%), and Ghana (+147%) reflects broadened market access across very different geographies — from high-income neighbouring markets to Sub-Saharan Africa. The United States remained stable, essentially a mature and saturated destination. Exports to Ukraine grew modestly despite the conflict that began in 2022, suggesting continued demand for EU-processed products.

Import sources shifted dramatically, with China and Serbia declining and Ukraine and Kazakhstan rising

EU import concentration by value remained relatively stable (HHI around 2,560), but the composition of top suppliers changed substantially:

The most dramatic changes on the import side are the collapse of Chinese exports to the EU (−73%) and the near-disappearance of Serbian exports (−83%). These declines may reflect a combination of factors, including changes in EU food safety standards, shifts in global supply chains, and competitive displacement. Conversely, Ukraine increased its role as an EU supplier, likely reflecting its agricultural capacity and, since 2022, the EU's policy of facilitating Ukrainian grain exports. Kazakhstan's appearance as a significant supplier (from virtually zero in 2015 to €2.4 million in 2025) reflects Central Asia's growing integration into European supply chains, though this trade was highly volatile (coefficient of variation: 1.39).

The United Kingdom maintained its position as the EU's largest bilateral trade partner

The UK was the EU's largest import source and second-largest export destination throughout the period. Notably, post-Brexit trade flows proved relatively resilient: UK imports into the EU declined by 16% (less than the overall import contraction), while EU exports to the UK grew by 24%. The stability of UK-related trade flows — with a low volatility coefficient of ~0.21 on exports — underscores the deep structural integration of UK and EU cereal processing sectors, which was not fully disrupted by Brexit.

3. Product composition reveals divergent growth paths within CN 1104

Rolled oats (110412) dominated exports, while cereal germ (110430) showed the highest value growth

A closer look at the product sub-segments reveals that the aggregate headline figures mask very different dynamics at the six-digit level. On the export side, rolled or flaked oats (110412) and cereal germ (110430) together accounted for the bulk of trade:

Rolled oats and cereal germ — both products associated with health-conscious consumer trends and animal feed applications — each more than doubled in export value. Worked maize grains (110423) and other worked oat grains (110422) registered even steeper proportional increases (+229% and +203% respectively), though from lower bases. By contrast, rolled or flaked grains excluding oats (110419) were essentially flat, suggesting this category may have reached market saturation or faced substitution.

Import volumes in rolled oats declined, while cereal germ imports surged temporarily before collapsing

On the import side, the dynamics were markedly different:

Cereal germ imports tell an interesting story: they surged to over 21,600 tonnes in 2023 (valued at €10.1 million), likely driven by supply disruptions or demand spikes during the post-COVID and Ukraine-war period, before collapsing to just 2,453 tonnes in 2025. This suggests either a normalization of supply chains or a strategic shift by EU processors toward domestic sourcing of cereal germ. Meanwhile, the decline in rolled oat imports (−16%) and the near-stability of other worked grains confirms that the EU has increasingly met domestic demand through local production — consistent with the production data showing production value rising from €542 million to €1,513 million (+179%) while physical volumes grew only 8% (from 2.02 billion kg to 2.17 billion kg).

2022 stands out as a year of price shocks, consistent with the global commodity crisis

The volatility and shock analysis identifies 2022 as the focal point for the largest price shocks in EU export trade. Abnormal price increases were detected for exports to Côte d'Ivoire (+34.8%), South Africa (+23.1%), and the Russian Federation (+28.3%). These events align with the global commodity price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and broader supply chain disruptions. The average export price for cereal germ (110430) — the most volatile sub-segment — peaked at €624/t in 2022, up from €384/t in 2015, before falling back to €477/t in 2025. This pattern is consistent with a transient supply shock followed by market adjustment.

Import volatility was concentrated in a small number of partners with unstable trade relationships. Kazakhstan (CV: 1.39) and Canada (CV: 1.39) showed the highest price volatility among EU import sources, reflecting their relatively small and episodic trade volumes rather than structural instability. By contrast, the UK (CV: 0.21) and Türkiye (CV: 0.17) — the EU's two largest import partners — showed the most stable trade flows.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in processed cereal grains and germ (CN 1104) underwent a clear structural transformation. The bloc evolved from a position of approximate trade balance into a significant net exporter, with the trade surplus expanding from €30.9 million to €133.5 million. This shift was driven by a near-doubling of export values — powered in particular by rolled oats and cereal germ — combined with a modest contraction in imports. EU domestic production grew strongly in value terms, suggesting a move toward higher-value processed products and greater self-sufficiency.

Export markets diversified meaningfully, with Türkiye, Switzerland, Israel, and Ghana emerging as high-growth destinations, while traditional partners like the UK remained stable. On the import side, China's role collapsed, Ukraine and Kazakhstan gained ground, and the UK maintained its position as the dominant supplier. The 2022 commodity price shock left a visible but temporary mark on trade data, particularly in export prices to African and Russian destinations.

Overall, the data paints a picture of an EU processed cereal sector that has become more competitive, more export-oriented, and more diversified in its market relationships — while remaining relatively insulated from import dependency, with a net import reliance that deepened to −8.5% by 2025.