Market evolution: Corn starch and inulin (CN 1108) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of EU trade in starches and inulin (customs code 1108) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis is based on official trade data, focusing on extra-EU flows and key market indicators. The period under review was characterized by significant growth, structural shifts in trade patterns, and increasing integration into global markets, all while the EU solidified its position as a major net exporter.
1. Steady Growth and a Resilient Positive Trade Balance
The EU's trade in starches and inulin exhibited robust and sustained growth over the decade. The Union consistently maintained a positive trade balance, which not only persisted but expanded significantly, underscoring the sector's competitive strength in global markets.
- Trade Balance Expansion: The EU's trade surplus in value grew from approximately €526 million in 2015 to €828 million in 2025, an increase of 57.5%. This growth was driven by exports outpacing imports.
- Export Performance: The value of EU exports increased by 58.8%, rising from €583 million to €926 million. While the exported volume grew more modestly by 8.8%, the significant value increase was fueled by a 46.0% rise in export unit prices.
- Import Trends: Import values grew by 71.2% to €98 million, with a similar volume increase of 69.1%. Import prices remained relatively stable, rising only 1.3%, indicating that volume growth was the primary driver on the import side.
- Net Exporter Status: The EU's role as a net exporter deepened. The net import reliance ratio (a measure of trade balance relative to production) became more negative, moving from -13.6% to -27.1%, confirming the sector's increasing outward orientation.
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2. Geographical Reorientation and Evolving Market Concentration
The geographical landscape of EU trade underwent notable changes, characterized by diversification on the import side and increased concentration on the export side. The composition of key partners shifted, reflecting broader geopolitical and economic trends.
Diversification of Import Sources
The concentration of EU imports, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), decreased by 29.0%, indicating a more diversified supply base. This was driven by the rise of new or expanded suppliers.
- Emerging Suppliers: Countries like Ukraine, Viet Nam, and Brazil saw extraordinary growth in their exports to the EU. For instance, imports from Ukraine surged by 2,567.9% in value, while those from Viet Nam and Brazil increased by over 500% each.
- Traditional and Diminishing Partners: While Serbia and Thailand remained significant suppliers, the share of the United Kingdom in EU imports declined sharply by 67.4%, likely a consequence of Brexit-related trade frictions.
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Consolidation of Export Markets
In contrast to imports, EU export flows became slightly more concentrated (HHI increased by 8.1%). This suggests a consolidation of relationships with major partners.
- Top Export Destinations: The United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea were consistently the largest markets for EU starches and inulin. The value of exports to the UK and US grew by 67.4% and 65.8%, respectively.
- Shifting Dynamics in Asia: Exports to Thailand and Viet Nam declined by 24.5% and 19.8%, while those to China also saw a marginal decrease of 6.4%, pointing to evolving competitive landscapes in Asia.
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3. Product Mix, Domestic Capacity, and Exogenous Shocks
The sector's evolution was also shaped by the specific product mix of trade, a growing and valuable domestic production base, and episodes of price volatility triggered by external shocks.
Dominance of Potato Starch and Inulin in EU Exports
The EU's export strength is heavily tilted towards higher-value segments within the CN 1108 grouping.
- Potato Starch (110813): This was the largest export category by value, accounting for over 40% of total exports in 2025 (€401 million). Its unit price increased by 61% over the period.
- Inulin (110820): The second-largest export by value (€93 million in 2025), inulin is a high-value specialty product with unit prices consistently above €2,200/t, indicating its premium status.
Robust Domestic Production Base
EU production of starches and inulin underpins its export capacity. While production volumes grew modestly (12.7%), the value of production more than doubled (117.6%), reflecting inflation, shifts towards higher-value products, or significant price increases.
Exposure to External Price Shocks
The market experienced significant price volatility, particularly in 2022, linked to the war in Ukraine. The data reveals distinct shocks affecting both imports and exports.
- Ukrainian Supply Shock: In 2022, EU imports from Ukraine experienced a severe price shock with an abnormality score of 67.2 and a 123.8% price shift. This aligns with the conflict disrupting agricultural supply chains.
- Export Market Volatility: Price shocks were also detected in EU exports to the Philippines (2023) and imports from Norway (2023), though on a smaller scale.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's starch and inulin sector demonstrated strong growth and resilience. The Union solidified its role as a global net exporter, driven by valuable exports of potato starch and inulin. The trade landscape evolved, with import sources diversifying significantly while export markets consolidated around key partners. This period of growth was not without challenges, as the sector was exposed to major price shocks stemming from geopolitical events, highlighting its integration into global supply chains. The underlying strength of domestic production and a consistently positive trade balance suggest a well-positioned industry for the coming decade.