Market evolution: Corn flour (CN 1102) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in cereal flours (excluding wheat or meslin), classified under customs code 1102, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The code encompasses primarily maize (corn) flour (110220) and other non-wheat cereal flours (110290). The analysis reveals a significant transformation in the EU's trade position, characterised by a strengthening of its net exporter status, notable shifts in major trading partnerships, and increasing export market concentration. The following sections detail these key findings.

1. Sustained Growth and Strengthening of the EU's Net Exporter Position

The EU has consistently been a net exporter in this market, a position that has substantially strengthened over the period. This growth is driven by robust export expansion outpacing import growth.

1.1 Export Growth Surpasses Import Growth in Value and Volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports of cereal flours grew by 153.3%, rising from €33.3 million to €84.3 million. Import value also increased, but at a slower pace of 61.9%, reaching €36.8 million. This divergence resulted in a dramatic expansion of the trade surplus, which grew by 351.0% from €10.5 million to €47.5 million (General Overview).

1.2 Unit Values Reveal Divergent Price Trends

The average export price increased by 44.8% to €826 per tonne, while the average import price rose by only 17.7% to €971 per tonne. This suggests the EU may have been exporting higher-value or more processed products over time, or benefiting from price dynamics in key markets (General Overview).

1.3 Deepening Integration into Global Markets

The EU's trade intensity in this sector, measuring total trade (exports + imports) relative to domestic production, increased from 5.6% to 8.9% over the period. Similarly, export propensity (exports relative to production) rose from 4.1% to 6.3%, indicating the sector's growing orientation towards external markets (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

2. Geographical Realignment of Trading Partners

The period witnessed significant changes in the relative importance of the EU's key trading partners, with the United Kingdom emerging as a dominant export destination and the import side showing increased diversification away from traditional suppliers.

2.1 The United Kingdom as the Epicentre of Export Growth

The UK's share in EU exports grew tremendously. Export value to the UK surged by 254.0% to €41.0 million, making it the largest export market by a wide margin in 2025. This suggests deepening trade links in this specific food category post-Brexit, possibly reflecting established supply chains (General Overview).

2.2 Diversification of Import Sources

While the United Kingdom remained the top import source, its growth was modest (+8.7%). More strikingly, imports from several emerging economies grew exponentially: Serbia (+1,337.0%), Mexico (+1,596.4%), and India (+973.9%). In contrast, imports from the United States fell sharply (-73.0%). This shift indicates a reconfiguration of the EU's supply chain, potentially driven by cost, trade agreements, or supply security considerations (General Overview).

2.3 Internal Specialisation: Leading EU Producers and Traders

Within the EU, Italy, France, and Germany are the leading exporters. Italy and Germany, in particular, saw explosive growth in their export values (+200.7% and +334.6%, respectively). Italy also shows the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) among major producers, indicating a strong specialisation in this product segment (Market Structure).

3. Increasing Export Market Concentration and Emerging Vulnerabilities

While the EU's overall trade position has strengthened, the data reveals concerning trends in export market concentration and highlights specific volatility risks linked to certain partners.

3.1 Rising Concentration in Export Markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports, a measure of market concentration, increased from 1,514 to 2,542 between 2015 and 2025, indicating a significant rise in concentration. This is primarily due to the growing dominance of the UK market. Such concentration poses a risk, as trade disruptions with a single major partner could have an outsized impact on the sector (Market Structure).

3.2 Diversification of Import Supply

Conversely, import concentration (HHI) decreased from 2,038 to 1,176, reflecting a diversification of the EU's sources for non-wheat cereal flours. This enhances supply security on the import side, reducing dependency on any single non-EU supplier (Market Structure).

3.3 Notable Volatility and Price Shocks

Certain trade relationships exhibit high volatility. For instance, exports to Angola and Norway show high coefficients of variation (1.52 and 1.11, respectively), indicating unstable trade flows. Furthermore, a significant price shock was detected in exports to the Philippines in 2022, with an abnormal price shift of 77% (Volatility & Shocks).

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU's trade in cereal flours (CN 1102) evolved dramatically. The bloc solidified its role as a major net exporter, with export values more than doubling. This expansion was fueled by a profound geographical shift, with the United Kingdom becoming the preeminent export market, and the sourcing of imports diversifying away from the United States towards emerging economies. Internally, production and export prowess are concentrated in Italy, France, and Germany.

However, this success is shadowed by rising concentration risk in export markets, making the sector more vulnerable to disruptions in key partner countries. While the overall trade balance has strengthened, policymakers and industry players should monitor the high volatility in certain bilateral relationships and the strategic implications of an increasingly concentrated export base. The EU's net self-reliance in this sector has improved slightly, but its increasing integration into global trade underscores the importance of resilient and diversified supply chains.