Market evolution: Potato flour and flakes (CN 1105) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in potato flour, meal, powder, flakes, granules, and pellets (CN code 1105) from 2015 to 2025. The EU has consistently been a major net exporter of these processed potato products. Over the decade, the bloc's trade dynamics shifted significantly, characterized by robust export growth, a rise in unit values, and a deepening of trade relationships with key partners. This analysis delves into the overarching trade trends, the divergent performance of product sub-segments, and the impact of external shocks on the market structure.
1. A Decade of Export-Led Growth and Diversification
The EU's trade in CN 1105 was marked by strong performance over the 2015–2025 period, driven predominantly by exports. The trade balance expanded substantially, reinforcing the EU's position as a global supplier.
EU exports outpaced imports, solidifying a strong positive trade balance.
The total value of EU exports for CN 1105 grew by 111.8% between 2015 and 2025, rising from €189.2 million to €400.8 million. In contrast, import values grew by 52.5%, from €9.9 million to €15.0 million. This differential growth led to a robust expansion of the trade surplus, which increased by 115.1% from €179.4 million to €385.8 million. The EU's net import reliance turned increasingly negative (from -19% to -51%), confirming its status as a consistent net exporter.
Export growth was driven by both quantity and significant price increases.
While export volumes increased by 23.4% (from 178,481 tonnes to 220,287 tonnes), the average export price rose sharply by 71.6% (from €1,060 per tonne to €1,820 per tonne). This indicates that value growth was primarily fueled by price inflation rather than sheer volume expansion. The EU's export propensity also increased from 17.3% to 35.6%, showing a greater orientation of domestic production towards external markets.
Export partnerships diversified, though some remained highly concentrated.
The United Kingdom remained the single largest destination, with its share of EU exports increasing from €32.1 million (2015) to €83.1 million (2025). However, growth was even more pronounced in other key markets like Brazil (+245.2%), Japan (+223.0%), and Malaysia (+84.7%). On the import side, sourcing shifted dramatically, with volumes from the United Kingdom and Belarus growing significantly, while imports from traditional suppliers like Russia and China declined.
| Trade Flow | First (2015) | Last (2025) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 189,210,346 | 400,825,250 | +111.8 |
| Export Quantity (Tonnes) | 178,481 | 220,287 | +23.4 |
| Export Price (EUR/t) | 1,060 | 1,820 | +71.6 |
| Import Value (EUR) | 9,859,769 | 15,038,621 | +52.5 |
| Import Quantity (Tonnes) | 16,939 | 6,440 | -62.0 |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | 179,350,577 | 385,786,629 | +115.1 |
2. Divergent Trajectories of Product Sub-Segments
The two main sub-categories under CN 1105—flour/meal/powder (110510) and flakes/granules/pellets (110520)—exhibited distinct patterns in trade volumes, values, and pricing over the period.
Flakes, granules, and pellets (110520) dominated EU export volumes and values.
This segment consistently accounted for the vast majority of EU exports. In 2025, 110520 represented 81% of total export volume (178,466 tonnes out of 220,287 tonnes) and 82% of total export value (€330.1 million out of €400.8 million). The average export price for 110520 increased from €1,072 per tonne in 2015 to €1,849 per tonne in 2025.
Flour, meal, and powder (110510) experienced dramatic price inflation despite smaller volumes.
While 110510 export volumes were smaller, they showed resilience, growing from 27,198 tonnes to 41,821 tonnes. The most striking feature was the price evolution: the average export price surged from €997 per tonne in 2015 to a peak of €2,081 per tonne in 2023, before settling at €1,692 in 2025. This volatile price movement points to supply-demand tightness or specific cost pressures in this segment.
Import patterns reveal a structural shift in product sourcing.
EU imports of 110510 (flour) collapsed from 13,374 tonnes in 2015 to 1,381 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 89.7%. Conversely, imports of 110520 (flakes) showed more resilience, with volumes fluctuating but ending at 5,059 tonnes. Consequently, the import market became heavily skewed towards higher-value flakes, which accounted for 78.5% of import value in 2025 despite being a smaller volume than historical flour imports.
| Segment (Imports) | 2015 Quantity (t) | 2025 Quantity (t) | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Avg. Price 2015 (EUR/t) | Avg. Price 2025 (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 110510 (Flour) | 13,374 | 1,381 | 5,620,420 | 2,347,757 | 420 | 1,699 |
| 110520 (Flakes) | 3,565 | 5,059 | 4,239,349 | 12,690,864 | 1,189 | 2,509 |
3. Geopolitical Shocks and Resilient Key Partnerships
The period was marked by significant volatility, particularly in import markets, driven by geopolitical events. Meanwhile, core export relationships demonstrated considerable stability.
Import volatility was exceptionally high, driven by Eastern European suppliers.
The coefficient of variation for import values from partners like Belarus (1.23), Ukraine (1.27), and Russia (0.77) was very high. The most significant supply shocks occurred in 2022, with import prices from Russia and Belarus spiking by 72.8% and 96.0% respectively, amid the geopolitical disruption following the invasion of Ukraine. This instability likely contributed to the overall decline in import volumes as the EU sought more stable sourcing.
The United Kingdom remained the cornerstone of EU export and import trade.
The UK was the top partner for both flows and exhibited remarkably low volatility (CV of 0.17 for exports). EU exports to the UK grew by 159.2% over the decade, while imports from the UK grew by 54.5%. This stability, despite Brexit, underscores deep, integrated supply chains that persisted through the period.
Domestic production surged, underpinning export capacity.
Available data shows EU production of dried potato products doubled in quantity (+102.7%) and saw its value increase by 325.5% between the first and last available years. This expansion in domestic capacity provided the foundation for the observed export growth. Market concentration in production, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), remained relatively low for exports (around 800-900), indicating a diverse set of EU exporting nations.
Conclusion
From 2015 to 2025, the EU trade in potato flour and flakes (CN 1105) evolved into a more robust and export-oriented market. The bloc successfully capitalized on growing global demand, significantly increasing the value of its exports through a combination of moderate volume growth and substantial price appreciation. The market structure revealed a clear division of labor: high-volume exports of flakes and granules, contrasted with a volatile but high-price niche for potato flour.
The decade was not without challenges. The EU's import side proved highly susceptible to geopolitical shocks, particularly from Eastern Europe in 2022, leading to a strategic contraction in import volumes and a search for more reliable partners. In contrast, core export relationships, especially with the United Kingdom, demonstrated formidable resilience. Ultimately, the period concluded with the EU as a more self-reliant and commercially potent player in the global market for processed potato products, with its domestic production capacity significantly strengthened to support its outward trade ambitions.