Market evolution: Malt (CN 1107) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of Malt (CN 1107) within the European Union for the period 2015–2025. The EU operates as a major net exporter in this market, with its trade characterised by stable volumes but significant price appreciation. The period is marked by a substantial increase in the value of both exports and imports, evolving trade partnerships, and notable internal production growth. The following sections break down these trends, focusing on the EU's dominant export position, the restructuring of its import supply chain, and the interplay between domestic production, trade, and global price shocks.

I. The EU as a Structural Net Exporter with Price-Driven Value Growth

The EU maintains a dominant and consistent position as a net exporter of malt throughout the analysed decade. This structural surplus, while stable in volume, saw significant value appreciation driven primarily by rising unit prices.

The sustained and substantial trade surplus

The EU's trade balance for malt remained strongly positive over the entire period, confirming its role as a net exporter. The balance grew from approximately €999 million in 2015 to €1.25 billion in 2025, an increase of 25.1%. This surplus peaked at €1.61 billion in 2022, reflecting the impact of global price surges. The Net Import Reliance metric remained consistently negative, starting at -47.5% and ending at -49.4%, underscoring the EU's export-oriented structure.

Export growth: volume stagnation versus value appreciation

While the value of EU malt exports grew by 26.4% (from €1.01 billion to €1.28 billion), the volume exported saw a slight decline of 1.6% over the same period. The primary driver of value growth was a 28.5% increase in the average export price, which rose from €396/t to €508/t. This price increase was most pronounced between 2020 and 2023, peaking at an average of €640/t in 2022, likely reflecting global supply chain pressures and input cost inflation. More details on trade flows can be found here.

Diverse and expanding export destinations

EU malt exports are distributed across a diverse set of global partners. The top seven destinations by value accounted for a significant share of total exports. Key dynamics include:

Source: Top Partners by Value (Exports)

Internal EU export leadership and concentration

Among EU member states, Belgium, Germany, and France are the leading exporters. Belgium alone exported malt worth over €361 million in 2025, representing nearly 30% of total EU exports. Poland showed the most dramatic growth, with its export value increasing by over 320% during the period, highlighting a shift in internal production capabilities. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports remained very low (around 310-390), indicating a highly competitive and fragmented EU export supply base.

II. A Rapidly Restructuring and Volatile Import Market

In contrast to the stable export picture, the EU's import market for malt, though much smaller, underwent dramatic transformation in terms of sourcing and exhibited high price volatility.

Import value growth outpacing volume

The value of EU malt imports more than doubled, increasing by 130.7% from €12.8 million to €29.6 million. The volume imported also grew, but at a slower pace of 43.9%. This divergence points to a significant 60.3% increase in the average import price, which climbed from €432/t to €693/t, often exceeding export prices, particularly for roasted malt.

The dramatic shift in import sources

The landscape of EU malt suppliers changed radically. The most striking feature is the rapid rise of new suppliers and the collapse of traditional ones.

Source: Top Partners by Value (Imports)

Increased diversification and reduced import concentration

The rapid rise of new partners like Ukraine and Serbia led to a significant diversification of the EU's import base. The HHI for import value fell sharply by 42.7%, from 8,867 to 5,082. While still indicating a moderately concentrated market (with the UK as the main pole), this decline signifies a move towards greater supply security through diversification, likely in response to geopolitical and market risks.

High volatility in import partnerships

Import flows were characterized by high volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Trade with partners like Türkiye (CV: 3.27) and Brazil (CV: 2.83) was extremely erratic, often involving small, intermittent volumes. Even established partners like the Russian Federation showed high volatility (CV: 1.05), contrasting with the much more stable export relationships to key partners like Japan (CV: 0.08). This volatility underscores the fragility of some newer supply channels.

III. Production Growth, Price Shocks, and Market Resilience

EU domestic malt production grew healthily over the period, reinforcing the region's self-sufficiency. However, the market was not immune to significant global price shocks, particularly in 2022-2023.

Robust growth in domestic production

EU malt production, measured in kilograms, increased by 19.2% from 6.54 billion kg to 7.80 billion kg. More strikingly, the value of production surged by 140.9%, from €1.80 billion to €4.35 billion. This indicates strong domestic demand and significant value capture by EU producers, likely due to both higher output and premium pricing.

Specialised production within the EU

Production is concentrated in a few member states. France is the largest producer, accounting for 28.5% of EU output value in 2025, followed by Czechia (8.6%). The Relative Revealed Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis shows that Slovakia, France, and Lithuania have a strong comparative advantage in malt production. In contrast, large economies like Italy, Ireland, and Portugal show a strong negative RSCA, indicating they are net importers and lack comparative production advantage.

Price shocks and market disruption in 2022-2023

The period saw significant price shocks, coinciding with global disruptions (e.g., post-pandemic supply chains, the Russia-Ukraine conflict affecting grain markets).

• In 2022, extreme export price spikes were detected for shipments to Guatemala (+63.6% shift) and Costa Rica (+58.6% shift), with very high abnormality scores (11.1 and 9.1, respectively).
• In 2023, a major import price shock occurred for malt from Serbia, with prices surging by 98.2% (abnormality: 5.9). These shocks affected both EU exporters' earnings and importers' costs, highlighting the market's exposure to global volatility despite its underlying structural strength.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's malt market demonstrated resilience and significant evolution. The EU solidified its position as a major net exporter, with value growth driven overwhelmingly by price increases rather than volume expansion. The import side underwent a fundamental restructuring, pivoting away from distant suppliers like Uruguay towards closer and geopolitically diversified partners such as Ukraine and Serbia, although this introduced new volatility. Domestically, production grew robustly, particularly in value terms, reinforcing the sector's economic importance. While the market faced and absorbed significant global price shocks in 2022-2023, its core dynamics—a strong export base, growing production, and a newly diversified import supply—point to a sector that has adapted to changing global conditions while maintaining a significant trade surplus. The future will likely continue to be shaped by the interplay between EU production capacity, global agricultural commodity cycles, and the stability of its evolving trade partnerships.