Market evolution: Wheat gluten (CN 1109) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Wheat gluten (CN 1109) is a value-added product of the milling industry, widely used in the food sector (bakery, meat substitutes, animal feed) and in industrial applications. The European Union is a major global producer and exporter of wheat gluten, and the period 2015–2025 saw the EU's net-exporter position deepen substantially. EU exports grew from €340 million in 2015 to €486 million in 2025 (+42.8%), while imports remained marginal at under €9 million, yielding a trade surplus that widened to nearly €477 million. At the same time, domestic production expanded by over 65 % in volume, export prices spiked during the 2022 commodity shock before normalising, and the geographic profile of EU trade shifted markedly — with Norway emerging as the leading destination and China fading as an import supplier. This report examines these dynamics across three main dimensions.
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1. The EU's Consolidation as a Dominant Net Exporter
1.1 Export growth outpaces domestic demand expansion
Over the 2015–2025 period, EU export value of wheat gluten rose from €340.0 million to €485.6 million (+42.8 %), and export volume climbed from 254,886 tonnes to 357,107 tonnes (+40.1 %). The peak year was not 2025 but an intermediate period around 2022–2023, when export value reached €694.3 million and volume hit 422,217 tonnes, driven by elevated global commodity prices following the disruption of Black Sea grain trade. Despite the subsequent price normalisation, the 2025 level remains well above the 2015 baseline.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) | Peak value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 340.0 | 485.6 | +42.8 | 694.3 |
| Export volume (kt) | 254.9 | 357.1 | +40.1 | 422.2 |
| Export price (€/t) | 1,334 | 1,360 | +1.9 | 2,289 |
| Import value (€M) | 12.7 | 8.6 | −31.7 | 23.5 |
| Import volume (kt) | 8.7 | 9.1 | +4.5 | 16.5 |
| Trade balance (€M) | 327.3 | 476.9 | +45.7 | 686.2 |
1.2 Net import reliance deepened significantly
The EU's net import reliance moved from −56.5 % in 2015 to −113.3 % in 2025, meaning that the EU now exports more than double what it consumes from external sources. This indicator dipped as low as −154.3 % in the peak-export year, confirming that the EU is structurally a very large net supplier of wheat gluten to world markets. Import value actually declined by 31.7 % over the period (from €12.7 million to €8.6 million), while import volume edged up slightly (+4.5 %), reflecting a significant drop in the average import price (from €1,457/t to €952/t, −34.7 %).
1.3 Rising export propensity signals deeper global integration
Both trade intensity and export propensity increased markedly, from roughly 37 % to around 54 %. This means that a growing share of EU wheat-gluten production is being channelled to international markets rather than consumed domestically. The export-propensity salience score (50.0) slightly exceeds that of trade intensity (49.4), underscoring that the EU's global footprint in this product is primarily driven by outbound shipments.
2. Shifting Geographic Patterns in EU Wheat Gluten Trade
2.1 Norway supplanted the United States as the top export destination
The most striking geographic shift in EU exports was the meteoric rise of Norway from €63.5 million in 2015 to €203.9 million in 2025 (+221.2 %), making it the EU's single largest external market for wheat gluten. Norway's share growth likely reflects the expansion of its salmon aquaculture industry, which is a major consumer of wheat gluten in fish feed. Meanwhile, the United States — formerly the top destination at €102.0 million — fell to €82.3 million (−19.3 %), possibly reflecting increased domestic US production capacity or competitive pressure.
| Top export partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 63.5 | 203.9 | +221.2 |
| United States | 102.0 | 82.3 | −19.3 |
| United Kingdom | 41.3 | 36.8 | −10.9 |
| Mexico | 13.3 | 20.8 | +56.7 |
| Brazil | 15.4 | 12.3 | −20.2 |
| Korea, Republic of | 5.8 | 14.6 | +149.9 |
| Chile | 2.4 | 4.0 | +63.9 |
2.2 The United Kingdom remained the key import supplier, while China collapsed
On the import side, the United Kingdom remained the largest supplier at €5.5 million in 2025 (down from €7.6 million in 2015), reflecting well-established post-Brexit trade flows. More dramatic was the decline of China, whose exports to the EU fell from €4.5 million to just €1.1 million (−76.8 %). This likely reflects China's own growing domestic demand for wheat gluten and/or EU quality and trade-policy barriers. Notably, Ukraine emerged as a new import source, rising from virtually zero to €751 thousand — a development consistent with Ukraine's deepening trade integration with the EU, including the EU–Ukraine DCFTA and wartime trade-facilitation measures.
| Top import partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 7.6 | 5.5 | −27.8 |
| China | 4.5 | 1.1 | −76.8 |
| Serbia | 0.3 | 0.6 | +82.3 |
| United States | 0.1 | 0.4 | +223.3 |
| Ukraine | 0.0 | 0.8 | n.m. |
2.3 Belgium, Germany, and France anchored EU export supply; Poland surged
Among EU Member State exporters, Belgium was consistently the largest exporter (€117.2 M → €154.8 M, +32.1 %), followed by Germany (€88.6 M → €85.2 M, broadly stable) and France (€62.9 M → €92.5 M, +47.1 %). The most dynamic growth came from Poland, whose exports more than tripled from €15.1 million to €48.0 million (+218.5 %), and the Netherlands, which more than doubled from €17.2 million to €39.3 million (+127.9 %). These trends reflect investment in starch and gluten production capacity in Central and Western Europe.
| Top EU exporter | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 117.2 | 154.8 | +32.1 |
| Germany | 88.6 | 85.2 | −3.8 |
| France | 62.9 | 92.5 | +47.1 |
| Lithuania | 27.1 | 29.3 | +8.3 |
| Poland | 15.1 | 48.0 | +218.5 |
| Netherlands | 17.2 | 39.3 | +127.9 |
3. Production Expansion, Specialisation, and Price Shocks
3.1 EU production grew substantially in both volume and value
EU production of wheat gluten rose from approximately 405,322 tonnes to 671,461 tonnes in volume (+65.7 %) and from €346 million to €926 million in value (+167.5 %). The value growth far outstripped the volume growth, reflecting a general upward trend in wheat-gluten prices over the decade — driven by both demand growth (plant-based protein trends, aquaculture expansion) and input-cost inflation (wheat prices). Production value peaked at €1.2 billion, coinciding with the 2022 global commodity price spike.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) | Peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production volume (kt) | 405 | 671 | +65.7 | 772 |
| Production value (€M) | 346 | 926 | +167.5 | 1,200 |
3.2 Export concentration rose slightly; specialisation is centred on Belgium and Lithuania
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner rose from 1,607 to 2,174 (+35.2 % in value terms), indicating a moderate increase in destination concentration — largely driven by Norway's growing dominance. On the import side, concentration remained higher (HHI 4,361 in 2025) but declined from 4,912 in 2015 (−11.2 %), suggesting a modest diversification of import sources.
In terms of specialisation, Lithuania (RSCA 0.77, RCA 7.80) and Belgium (RSCA 0.55, RCA 3.43) display the strongest revealed comparative advantage in wheat gluten within the EU, followed by France, Hungary, and Germany. Belgium and Germany together account for nearly 59 % of EU export value, confirming the product's strong Western European industrial base.
3.3 Price shocks hit Latin American and Asian export markets in 2022–2023
The volatility analysis reveals that EU export relationships are generally stable, with coefficients of variation (CV) well below 1.0 for most major partners (e.g., United Kingdom 0.17, United States 0.21, Norway 0.29). Import-side volatility is considerably higher, particularly for Ukraine (CV 2.82) and Canada (CV 2.81), reflecting the sporadic nature of these supply flows.
Three notable price shock events were detected in EU exports:
| Partner | Year | Abnormality score | Price shift (%) | Export value share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korea, Republic of | 2022 | 11.4 | +51.8 | 3.3 % |
| Mexico | 2023 | 4.5 | +85.3 | 4.9 % |
| Chile | 2022 | 2.7 | +36.2 | 3.2 % |
All three are price shocks on the export side, occurring during or immediately after the 2022 global commodity price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The exceptionally high abnormality score for Korea (11.4) indicates a sharp and unusual price spike, while Mexico's +85.3 % price shift in 2023 suggests a delayed pass-through of elevated wheat-gluten costs to Latin American buyers.
Conclusion
The EU's wheat-gluten market over 2015–2025 is a story of deepening export orientation built on growing domestic production capacity. EU output rose by nearly two-thirds in volume and more than doubled in value, with the surplus between exports and imports widening to nearly €477 million. Geographic shifts were pronounced: Norway emerged as the dominant destination — likely linked to its aquaculture sector — while the US share declined and China largely withdrew as an import supplier. Within the EU, Belgium, Germany, and France remained the backbone of production and exports, but Poland and the Netherlands recorded the fastest growth. The 2022 commodity price shock left a clear mark on the data, generating an export-value peak of €694 million and triggering abnormal price spikes in several destination markets. Despite some increase in export concentration toward Norway, the EU's trade position in wheat gluten appears robust: production continues to grow, export propensity is rising, and the structural trade surplus has more than held its ground through the post-shock normalisation period.