Market evolution: Dairy and eggs (CN 04) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's extra-EU trade in CN 04 — Dairy produce; Birds' eggs; Natural honey; Edible products of animal origin, n.e.s. over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a major global player in this sector, and the decade under review saw a pronounced expansion of export values — far outpacing volume growth — alongside a widening trade surplus. Three main dynamics stand out: the structural strengthening of the EU's net exporter position, a significant reshuffling of trade partners, and a product-mix evolution in which cheese consolidated its dominance while butter and whey prices surged. The report draws exclusively on the trade data provided and interprets the figures in light of known market developments.
1. Export value growth far outstripped volume, revealing a price-driven expansion
The EU trade surplus in dairy and eggs widened by nearly 60 %
Over 2015–2025, EU extra-EU trade in CN 04 grew substantially on both sides, but exports consistently dwarfed imports:
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports — value (€bn) | 12.75 | 20.28 | +59.0 % |
| Exports — volume (Mt) | 5.44 | 5.80 | +6.7 % |
| Exports — unit price (€/t) | 2,345 | 3,496 | +49.0 % |
| Imports — value (€bn) | 2.19 | 3.41 | +55.6 % |
| Imports — volume (Mt) | 1.33 | 1.67 | +25.7 % |
| Imports — unit price (€/t) | 1,655 | 2,048 | +23.8 % |
| Trade surplus (€bn) | 10.56 | 16.87 | +59.7 % |
The gap between value and volume growth is striking. Exports rose by 59 % in value but only 6.7 % in volume, implying that the entire value increase was price-driven. This reflects both a general inflation in dairy commodity prices over the decade and a compositional shift toward higher-value products (see Section 3).
The EU's net exporter position deepened steadily
The net import reliance indicator confirms the EU's strong structural surplus. Starting at −8.7 % in 2015, it deepened to −12.3 % by 2025 (a −41.4 % change), reaching its trough at −15.4 % in 2022 — the year of peak global dairy prices. A negative value means the EU exports significantly more than it imports. Meanwhile, export propensity — the share of EU dairy production that is exported outside the EU — rose from 10.1 % to 13.0 %, indicating that the EU dairy sector became more outward-oriented over the decade.
Domestic production expanded dramatically in value
EU production of CN 04 products grew by 174 % in volume (from 27.1 Mt to 74.4 Mt) and by 244 % in value (from €41.3bn to €142.2bn). This enormous expansion — likely reflecting both genuine output growth and improved reporting coverage — underpins the EU's capacity to sustain and grow its export surplus even as domestic demand also increased.
2. Trade partners shifted significantly, with Ukraine and South Korea emerging as key movers
The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner but lost relative weight
The United Kingdom was by far the largest partner on both the import and export sides. In 2025, the EU exported €4.60bn of dairy and eggs to the UK (up 47.6 % from 2015) and imported €1.62bn (up 35.2 %). However, the UK's share of total EU dairy exports declined as faster-growing markets gained ground. The low coefficient of variation (CV = 0.05) of UK-bound exports confirms the UK as the most stable and structural trade relationship in the dataset.
Ukraine became a major new import source, while South Korea and the US surged on the export side
The most dramatic shifts occurred among emerging partners:
| Partner | Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Imports (€m) | 48.1 | 421.8 | +776.6 % |
| South Korea | Exports (€m) | 242.8 | 737.1 | +203.6 % |
| United States | Exports (€m) | 1,042.0 | 2,109.1 | +102.4 % |
| Norway | Imports (€m) | 14.5 | 47.1 | +224.5 % |
| New Zealand | Imports (€m) | 91.8 | 219.8 | +139.4 % |
| Switzerland | Exports (€m) | 436.2 | 839.0 | +92.3 % |
Ukraine's import surge is the most striking: from just €48m in 2015 to €422m in 2025, reflecting the progressive liberalisation of EU–Ukraine trade (DCFTA from 2016, followed by autonomous trade measures after 2022). Ukraine's import CV of 0.62 is among the highest, confirming this as a volatile and rapidly evolving flow. On the export side, South Korea (+204 %) and the United States (+102 %) stand out, both driven by growing Asian and North American demand for European cheese, whey, and specialised dairy ingredients.
Import concentration fell, while export markets remained diversely spread
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports dropped from 3,428 to 2,786 (−18.7 %) by value, indicating a meaningful diversification of import sources. The HHI for exports, already much lower at 813, fell only slightly to 782 (−3.8 %), reflecting the already-decentralised nature of EU dairy export destinations. At the member-state level, Ireland (+119 %), Italy (+143 %), and Denmark (+59 %) saw the strongest export growth among the top EU exporting members.
3. Cheese consolidated its lead while 2022 brought a system-wide price shock
Cheese (CN 0406) accounted for nearly half of EU dairy exports by value in 2025
The product segment breakdown reveals a clear hierarchy among the seven main export categories:
| Segment | Exports 2025 (€m) | Exports 2015 (€m) | Change | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0406 — Cheese and curd | 9,066 | 5,015 | +80.8 % | 44.7 % |
| 0402 — Concentrated milk & cream | 3,519 | 3,332 | +5.6 % | 17.4 % |
| 0405 — Butter & milk fats | 2,283 | 1,003 | +127.6 % | 11.3 % |
| 0401 — Fresh milk & cream | 1,536 | 784 | +95.8 % | 7.6 % |
| 0404 — Whey & milk constituents | 1,440 | 922 | +56.1 % | 7.1 % |
| 0403 — Fermented dairy / yogurt | 1,197 | 708 | +69.1 % | 5.9 % |
| 0407 — Birds' eggs in shell | 707 | 638 | +10.8 % | 3.5 % |
Cheese was the undisputed leader, growing from €5.0bn to €9.1bn, driven by both volume increases (from 1.16 Mt to 1.42 Mt) and a near-doubling of the average export price (from €4,327/t to €6,381/t). Butter exports saw the most explosive price growth, with the export unit price rising from €3,863/t in 2015 to €8,414/t in 2025 (+118 %). This reflects the global tightening of butterfat supplies and the premiumisation of European butter on world markets.
On the import side, cheese and fresh milk dominated, but butter prices also soared
EU imports tell a different structural story. Cheese (€1,257m in 2025, +45 % vs 2015) and fresh milk (€536m, +134 %) were the largest categories. Butter imports, while smaller in volume (72,000 t), reached €478m by 2025 (+185 % in value), with the import price rising from €3,016/t to €6,635/t — mirroring the global butter price inflation. Notably, whey imports (CN 0404) fell from 154,000 t to just 82,000 t in volume, yet their unit price rose from €418/t to €1,071/t (+156 %), suggesting a structural shift in the EU's whey trade position toward greater self-sufficiency.
2022 was the epicentre of a global dairy price shock
The volatility and shock analysis identifies 2022 as the year of maximum price disruption across the sector. The top detected shock events are:
| Destination | Type | Abnormality score | Price shift | Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | Export price | 42.0 | +38.5 % | 2022 |
| Singapore | Export price | 19.0 | +37.9 % | 2022 |
| Dominican Republic | Export price | 18.3 | +49.5 % | 2022 |
These price spikes are consistent with the global energy and food inflation that followed the COVID-19 recovery and the onset of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which disrupted grain and energy markets and raised production costs across the dairy supply chain. The export unit prices for nearly every CN 04 sub-product peaked in 2022 — for example, butter exports hit €7,173/t (vs €5,130/t in 2021), and cheese reached €5,810/t (vs €4,768/t in 2021). Prices moderated somewhat in 2023–2024 but generally settled at levels well above their pre-2020 averages.
Among import partners, Türkiye showed the highest volatility (CV = 1.00), followed by Ukraine (CV = 0.62) and Serbia (CV = 0.62). On the export side, flows were generally more stable, with the UK (CV = 0.05) and Switzerland (CV = 0.10) being the most predictable markets. This asymmetry — volatile imports from smaller partners, stable exports to large structural markets — underscores the EU's position as a reliable supplier of dairy products to the world.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as the world's leading net exporter of dairy products and eggs. The headline story is one of price-driven value growth: export volumes rose by only 6.7 % while export values surged by 59 %, pushing the trade surplus from €10.6bn to €16.9bn. Cheese — the EU's flagship dairy export — saw its unit export price rise by 48 % and its total value approach €9.1bn, representing nearly 45 % of all CN 04 exports. The 2022 global price shock left a lasting mark, with dairy prices resetting to structurally higher levels. Geographically, the trade map shifted meaningfully: Ukraine emerged as a rapidly growing import source (+777 %), South Korea and the United States became increasingly important export markets, and the UK, while still dominant, saw its relative share erode. With export propensity rising to 13 % and net import reliance deepening to −12.3 %, the EU's dairy sector is more globally integrated and more outward-oriented than at any point in the past decade.