Market evolution: Cheese and curd (CN 0406) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is the world's leading producer and exporter of cheese and curd (CN 0406), a product category that encompasses fresh cheese, grated and powdered cheese, processed cheese, blue-veined cheese, and all other ripened and unripened varieties. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU cheese sector experienced substantial growth in external trade, driven by a combination of rising global demand, significant unit-value appreciation, and expanding geographical reach. EU production volumes rose from 8.54 billion kg to 11.67 billion kg (+36.7%), while production value more than doubled from €29.3 billion to €62.6 billion (+114.1%), reflecting the pervasive impact of cost inflation and price repricing across the dairy value chain. This report analyses the main trade dynamics shaping EU cheese trade over the past decade, with attention to export-led growth, geographic diversification, and product-level shifts.

1. A Decade of Robust Export Expansion Surpassed by Price Growth

EU cheese exports nearly doubled in value while volumes grew more modestly

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU cheese exports grew from €5.02 billion to €9.07 billion in value (+80.8%), while export volumes increased from 1.16 million tonnes to 1.42 million tonnes (+22.6%). This divergence highlights that the bulk of export value growth was driven by rising unit values rather than sheer volume expansion. Average export prices climbed from €4,327/t to €6,381/t (+47.5%), with the sharpest increases occurring in 2021–2022 amid global commodity price spikes and rising energy and feed costs.

Imports grew in value but remained structurally marginal

EU cheese imports rose from €867 million to €1.26 billion in value (+45.0%), but volumes grew only 6.5% (from 187,431 t to 199,560 t). Import prices rose from €4,627/t to €6,300/t (+36.2%), broadly tracking export price inflation. The import side remained far smaller than the export side: the EU's trade balance in cheese widened from €4.15 billion in 2015 to €7.81 billion in 2025 (+88.3%), underscoring the EU's role as a major net exporter.

The 2021–2022 period marked a structural price shock

The most notable feature of the decade is the sharp upward shift in unit values beginning in 2021 and peaking around 2022–2023. Export prices surged from €5,070/t in 2020 to €6,380/t by 2025, with the steepest year-on-year jump between 2021 and 2022. This coincided with the global energy crisis, elevated feed costs, and post-pandemic supply chain disruptions that affected the entire dairy sector. The shock detection confirms significant price abnormality events in 2022 for key export destinations such as Algeria (abnormality score: 78.3, price shift: +53.1%), Japan (abnormality: 11.6, shift: +39.4%), and South Korea (abnormality: 9.9, shift: +39.9%).

2. Geographic Diversification and Emerging Market Dynamics

Export concentration declined as new markets gained importance

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value fell from 1,530 to 1,197 (−21.8%), indicating that EU cheese exports became meaningfully more diversified over the decade. While the United Kingdom remained the single largest destination (€2.62 billion in 2025, 28.9% of exports), the top partner structure shows fast-growing demand from Asian and Middle Eastern markets.

Ukraine stands out as both a rapidly growing import source and export destination

The most dramatic bilateral shift involves Ukraine. EU cheese exports to Ukraine surged from €19 million to €239 million (+1,159.5%), making it one of the fastest-growing destinations. Simultaneously, EU cheese imports from Ukraine grew from negligible levels to €11.2 million. This is plausibly linked to the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) that has progressively liberalised trade, and to EU support measures following Russia's 2022 invasion.

Import sources remained concentrated but are slowly diversifying

The import HHI declined from 4,745 to 4,204 (−11.4%), remaining in the "moderately concentrated" range. The United Kingdom (€594 M) and Switzerland (€556 M) together accounted for the vast majority of extra-EU cheese imports. Notable newcomers include Serbia (from €1.4 M to €9.0 M) and Türkiye (from €1,141 to €10.2 M), reflecting both preferential trade agreements and competitive positioning by Western Balkan and Turkish dairy producers.

Italy and Denmark emerged as the EU's most dynamic cheese exporters

Among EU Member States, Italy saw the most dramatic export growth (+139.5%, from €839 M to €2.01 billion), overtaking France as the EU's largest cheese exporter by value in 2025. Denmark's exports more than doubled (+115.9%, from €428 M to €923 M), and Poland's exports also doubled (+123.1%). France (+27.5%) and the Netherlands (+44.1%) grew more slowly, suggesting a shift in the geography of EU cheese production toward Southern and Eastern Europe.

3. Product-Level Shifts: Fresh Cheese Surges, Processed Cheese Retreats

Fresh cheese (CN 040610) was the fastest-growing export segment

The product segment breakdown reveals that fresh cheese (including whey cheese and curd) was the standout performer among export categories. Export volumes rose from 316,508 t to 472,300 t (+49.2%), and export values surged from €940 million to €2.22 billion (+136.1%). Fresh cheese export prices rose from €2,970/t to €4,700/t (+58.3%). This likely reflects growing international appetite for products such as mozzarella, ricotta, and halloumi, as well as the expansion of Italian dairy cooperatives into global markets.

Grated and powdered cheese (CN 040620) also expanded strongly

Grated and powdered cheese exports nearly doubled in volume (from 32,474 t to 62,755 t, +93.2%) and nearly tripled in value (from €178 M to €515 M, +189.6%). This category benefits from the global food-processing and food-service industries, where pre-grated cheese is a convenient ingredient. Average export prices rose from €5,477/t to €8,211/t (+49.9%), reflecting both product quality premiums and inflation.

Processed cheese imports collapsed after 2020

On the import side, the most striking structural change was the near-halving of processed cheese (CN 040630) imports. Volumes fell from 14,709 t in 2015 to 6,988 t in 2025 (−52.5%), and values dropped from €60 M to €37 M (−39.0%). A dramatic cliff occurred between 2020 and 2021, when processed cheese import volumes plunged from 16,289 t to just 3,746 t. This may reflect disruptions from Brexit (the UK had been a significant supplier) and a broader shift in EU consumer preferences toward artisanal and specialty cheeses over processed varieties. Grated/powdered cheese imports also declined from 10,449 t to 6,520 t (−37.6%).

The EU's comparative advantage in cheese strengthened further

The EU's net import reliance became more negative over the period (from −8.6% to −13.2%), confirming that the EU's position as a net exporter in cheese intensified. Export propensity — the share of domestic production exported to non-EU markets — rose from 9.7% to 13.5% (+39.4%), and trade intensity increased from 11.3% to 15.1% (+33.8%). Specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Cyprus (RSCA: 0.90), Greece (0.64), Luxembourg (0.62), and Denmark (0.51) displayed the strongest comparative advantages in cheese exports, while Finland, Sweden, Portugal, and Slovenia showed negative RSCA values, indicating net import specialisation.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU cheese sector consolidated its global leadership through a combination of volume growth and substantial price appreciation. The trade surplus in cheese nearly doubled to €7.8 billion, export propensity reached 13.5%, and the geographical footprint of EU cheese exports broadened markedly — with fast-growing markets in East Asia, the Middle East, and Ukraine partially offsetting the slower growth of traditional European partners. At the product level, fresh cheese and grated/powdered cheese emerged as the most dynamic categories, while processed cheese lost ground both in exports and imports. The sharp price increases of 2021–2022, driven by the global energy and commodity shock, left a lasting structural imprint on unit values. Looking ahead, the EU's strengthened export diversification (falling HHI), growing global appetite for European PDO/PGI cheeses, and increasing competitiveness of Member States like Italy, Denmark, and Poland position the sector favourably — though exposure to geopolitical disruptions (as seen in volatility for Ukraine and Algeria) and evolving trade policy frameworks will remain key variables.