Market evolution: Bird eggs in shell (CN 0407) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of the European Union in birds' eggs in shell (CN 0407), a product heading that encompasses fresh eggs of domestic fowls, fertilised eggs for incubation, eggs of other bird species, and preserved or cooked eggs. The analysis covers the period 2015–2025 and draws on annual trade data between the EU and non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU egg trade has undergone significant structural shifts: while the bloc has remained a net exporter, its trade surplus has narrowed considerably as imports surged in both volume and value. Geopolitical events, sanitary crises, and evolving competitive advantages have reshaped trade partnerships and product composition. The following sections explore these dynamics in detail.

Scope & Definitions

1. The EU's Net Exporter Position Is Eroding Despite Rising Export Values

The EU has consistently maintained a positive trade balance in eggs throughout the period, but the magnitude of that surplus has contracted sharply. Export values have grown modestly while import values have more than tripled, and the physical volumes tell an even starker story of divergence.

1.1 Export values rose while export volumes declined

EU exports of eggs in shell grew in value from €637.7 million in 2015 to €706.8 million in 2025, an increase of 10.8% (General Overview — trade). However, export volumes in tonnes fell from 275,747 t to 181,436 t over the same period, a decline of 34.2%. This divergence is explained by a sharp increase in the average export price per tonne, which rose from €2,313 to €3,896 (+68.4%). In other words, the EU is exporting fewer physical tonnes of eggs but at significantly higher unit values — a pattern consistent with a shift toward higher-value product segments (notably fertilised hatching eggs) and rising global feed and production costs that have been passed through to prices.

1.2 Imports exploded in both volume and value

On the import side, the transformation has been dramatic. EU import values rose from €106.2 million in 2015 to €281.9 million in 2025 (+165.5%), while import volumes surged from 16,061 t to 137,377 t (+755.4%). The average import price per tonne, conversely, fell from €6,611 to €2,052 (−69.0%). This indicates that the EU is increasingly sourcing large volumes of lower-priced eggs — particularly fresh table eggs — from non-EU suppliers, reversing a historical pattern of self-sufficiency in this segment.

1.3 The trade surplus shrank by a fifth

The combined effect of these trends has been a narrowing of the EU's trade surplus. Measured in value, the balance declined from €531.6 million in 2015 to €424.9 million in 2025, a contraction of 20.1% (General Overview — trade). At the current trajectory, the EU could see its egg trade balance approach parity within the coming years if import growth continues unchecked.

2. Geopolitical Realignment Has Reshaped the EU's Trade Partnerships

The decade 2015–2025 witnessed a profound reorientation of the EU's egg trade geography. Sanitary crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and EU trade agreements with candidate countries have all left their marks on the partner landscape.

2.1 Ukraine emerged as the EU's dominant egg supplier

The most striking development on the import side is the rise of Ukraine. EU imports of eggs from Ukraine surged from €2.3 million in 2015 to €162.8 million in 2025, an increase of over 7,000% (Top partners — imports). Ukraine's share of total EU egg imports rose from approximately 2% to around 58%, making it by far the largest single supplier. This growth accelerated after 2022, likely reflecting the EU's autonomous trade liberalisation measures (ATMs) granting Ukrainian producers temporary preferential access to the EU market in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine. The effect has been massive: Ukraine now supplies more eggs to the EU than all other non-EU partners combined.

2.2 Türkiye and Western Balkan countries gained rapidly as import sources

Alongside Ukraine, several other suppliers experienced explosive growth. Türkiye's exports to the EU rose from €0.4 million to €38.5 million (+8,614%), and North Macedonia's increased from negligible levels to €18.6 million. Albania remained a modest but stable supplier at €1.4 million. These three countries benefit from proximity, lower production costs, and — in the case of North Macedonia and Albania — EU candidate-country arrangements that facilitate market access. The volatility of these flows is notably high: Türkiye's coefficient of variation in imports stands at 1.80 and North Macedonia's at 1.56, indicating substantial year-to-year swings (Volatility).

2.3 The United Kingdom remained the EU's top export market, while Russia and the US declined

On the export side, the United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's primary destination, with export values rising from €97.9 million to €126.7 million (+29.3%), likely supported by post-Brexit demand for EU eggs given the UK's limited domestic capacity. Switzerland also grew strongly, from €47.3 million to €109.7 million (+132.2%), becoming the second-largest market. By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell from €184.0 million to €89.0 million (−51.6%), reflecting the cumulative impact of EU sanctions and Russian import restrictions. The most dramatic decline was in exports to the United States, which collapsed from €79.0 million to €11.3 million (−85.7%), a trend that likely reflects sanitary barriers and increased US domestic production. A significant price shock was detected in US exports in 2017 (380.3% price shift), suggesting a rupture in trade conditions at that time (Top shock events).

2.4 Import concentration fell, signalling diversification of supply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 6,117 in 2015 to 3,707 in 2025, a drop of 39.4% (Concentration). While this suggests a more diversified import base, the rapid growth of Ukraine as a dominant supplier may in practice be reversing this trend toward a new form of single-partner concentration. The export-side HHI also fell, from 1,397 to 937 (−32.9%), indicating that EU exports have become slightly more dispersed across destination markets.

2.5 A major price shock in UK imports was detected in 2023

Among the most significant shock events identified in the data, a price shock in imports from the United Kingdom in 2023 stands out. With an abnormality score of 64.0 and a price shift of 142.3%, and accounting for 57.2% of total import value that year, this event likely reflects the impact of avian influenza outbreaks or supply disruptions that temporarily drove UK egg prices sharply upward (Top shock events). A separate price shock in imports from Türkiye was recorded in 2019 (357.4% price shift), suggesting that Turkish egg supply to the EU has been subject to sharp, possibly crisis-driven, episodes.

3. Fresh Table Eggs Dominate Import Growth While the EU Shifts Toward Hatching Egg Exports

The composition of the EU's egg trade has evolved significantly across product sub-categories. Fresh table eggs of domestic fowls (CN 040721) now dominate imports, while fertilised hatching eggs (CN 040711) account for the bulk of export value, reflecting a structural specialisation in the EU's poultry sector.

3.1 Fresh table eggs (040721) drove the import surge

The vast majority of the EU's import growth is attributable to a single product: fresh eggs of domestic fowls, in shell (CN 040721). Import volumes in this segment rose from 3,594 t in 2015 to 133,873 t in 2025 — an almost fortyfold increase (Product segment breakdown — imports). In value terms, imports of 040721 grew from €6.9 million to €243.3 million. This segment now accounts for approximately 97% of total import volume and 86% of import value, underscoring the extent to which the EU is becoming reliant on external suppliers for basic table eggs. The average import price for this segment fell from €1,930/t to €1,817/t, consistent with the influx of lower-cost supply from Ukraine and the Balkans.

3.2 Fertilised hatching eggs (040711) declined on the import side but remained central to exports

Imports of fertilised eggs for incubation of domestic fowls (CN 040711) decreased from 8,605 t to 2,109 t over the period. This decline suggests that the EU's domestic hatchery sector has become more self-sufficient, reducing the need for imported hatching eggs. On the export side, 040711 remained the largest segment by value: exports were worth €423.3 million in 2025, accounting for approximately 60% of total export value, despite a decline in volume from 83,680 t to 55,882 t. The average export price for hatching eggs rose from €4,291/t to €7,574/t (+76.5%), reflecting the high-value, technology-intensive nature of this segment and the EU's strong competitive position as a global supplier of genetics and breeding stock.

3.3 The EU's comparative advantage lies in hatching eggs and genetics

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the EU member states with the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in egg production are Latvia (RCA 9.39), Bulgaria (4.79), and Poland (2.81) (Specialisation). These countries tend to be net exporters of table eggs and, in Poland's case, also of hatching eggs. Conversely, large economies such as Italy (RCA 0.21) and Austria (0.11) show negative normalised RCA values, indicating they are net importers — consistent with their large consumer markets and relatively high production costs. The overall pattern suggests that EU egg trade is bifurcating: Eastern and smaller member states are competitive in table egg production and export, while the EU as a whole retains a leadership position in high-value hatching egg exports, driven by major genetic companies headquartered in the Netherlands and France.

3.4 The Netherlands, Spain, and Poland are the EU's leading export gateways

Among EU member states, the Netherlands was the largest exporter of eggs in shell by value in 2025 (€132.9 million), followed by Spain (€88.2 million), Belgium (€80.8 million), and France (€93.2 million) (Top reporters — exports). Poland saw the most dramatic growth in export value, rising from €17.2 million to €57.8 million (+237.1%), confirming its emergence as a major egg exporter. On the import side, Spain (€50.0 million) and Italy (€33.2 million) were the largest importers in 2025, with Italy's imports having grown by over 2,300% since 2015. This likely reflects strong domestic demand for fresh eggs in Southern European markets that increasingly outstrips local production capacity.

Conclusion

The EU egg market has undergone a structural transformation over 2015–2025. While the bloc remains a net exporter, its surplus has narrowed from €532 million to €425 million as imports surged — driven overwhelmingly by fresh table eggs from Ukraine, Türkiye, and Western Balkan countries. The EU's export profile has shifted toward higher-value hatching eggs, with rising unit prices compensating for declining volumes. Geopolitical developments, particularly the EU's trade liberalisation for Ukraine and the contraction of exports to Russia and the United States, have fundamentally reshaped trade flows. Looking ahead, the sustainability of the EU's egg trade balance will depend on whether the current import surge from Ukraine persists beyond the temporary trade measures, and on the EU's ability to maintain its competitive edge in the high-margin hatching egg segment.