Market evolution: Whey and milk products (CN 0404) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of Combined Nomenclature code 0404, which covers whey (including modified whey, whether concentrated or sweetened) and other products consisting of natural milk constituents. Over the period 2015–2025, the European Union consolidated its position as a major global exporter of these dairy-derived products, while its imports underwent a significant structural transformation. The full overview reveals that EU export value grew by 56.1% (from €922 million to €1,440 million) while export volumes rose 33.8% (from 644,188 to 861,629 tonnes). Meanwhile, imports told a strikingly different story: value increased 36.6% (from €64 million to €88 million) even as volumes fell 46.7% (from 154,212 to 82,170 tonnes), reflecting a dramatic price escalation. The EU's trade surplus widened from €858 million to €1,352 million over the decade, underscoring the sector's strong competitive position.

I. A strengthening export powerhouse oriented toward Asia

Export values have risen substantially despite cyclical fluctuations

EU exports of CN 0404 products grew from €922 million in 2015 to €1,440 million in 2025, representing a cumulative increase of 56.1%. However, the trajectory was far from linear. The data show a peak of €1,623 million — the maximum over the period — occurring around 2022, when global dairy prices surged in the wake of post-pandemic supply disruptions and the energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Export volumes followed a steadier upward path, rising from 644,188 tonnes to 861,629 tonnes (+33.8%), with both the minimum and maximum values coinciding with the first and last years of the dataset, suggesting sustained volume growth. Export unit values fluctuated between a minimum of €1,235/tonne and a maximum of €2,079/tonne, closing at €1,671/tonne (+16.7% versus 2015), indicating that price appreciation contributed meaningfully to revenue growth.

Source: EU trade overview — CN 0404

Asia-Pacific markets have driven the bulk of export growth

The geographical reorientation of EU whey exports toward Asia is one of the decade's defining trends. Among the top export partners by value, China stands out as the largest single destination, with import values rising from €216 million to €372 million (+72.5%). South Korea more than doubled its purchases (from €64 million to €136 million, +114.7%), while Malaysia grew from €58 million to €97 million (+68.0%). Indonesia, already a significant buyer at €93 million in 2015, maintained its position at €97 million (+4.1%). Vietnam and Thailand also expanded their imports from the EU, with increases of 55.2% and 36.7% respectively.

Source: Top export partners — CN 0404

The Asian orientation reflects structural demand drivers: rising protein consumption, growing infant formula markets, and expanding food-processing industries in Southeast Asia and China. Whey protein, both as an ingredient and a consumer product, has benefited from health and fitness trends that are particularly pronounced in these markets.

Export flows are remarkably stable, with limited volatility

A notable feature of EU whey exports is their relative stability. The volatility analysis shows that the coefficient of variation (CV) for the largest export destinations remains modest: Indonesia (0.10), Malaysia (0.13), China (0.15), and Singapore (0.19). This suggests that the EU has established enduring commercial relationships with diversified buyers, reducing dependence on any single volatile market. Price shocks detected in the data — for instance in Pakistan (2022, abnormality score 164.0) and South Korea (2022, abnormality score 9.8) — appear to be isolated events rather than indicators of systemic instability.

II. A structural transformation of import sources and volumes

Import volumes have fallen sharply even as prices have soared

While exports expanded, the EU's import profile for CN 0404 underwent a profound transformation. Total import volumes declined by 46.7%, from 154,212 tonnes in 2015 to 82,170 tonnes in 2025, reaching a minimum of 73,932 tonnes along the way. Yet import values rose 36.6%, from €64 million to €88 million, implying a dramatic increase in average import prices: from €418/tonne to €1,071/tonne (+156.5%). This divergence — falling volumes, rising values — indicates that the EU has progressively shifted toward higher-value, more specialised imported dairy ingredients while reducing its reliance on bulk whey imports.

Source: EU trade overview — CN 0404

The UK dominates imports while new suppliers have emerged

The top import partners reveal significant shifts in sourcing. The United Kingdom, by far the largest import source, saw its share rise from €41 million to €49 million (+20.4%), maintaining its dominant position. Switzerland, the second-largest traditional supplier, saw its imports fall from €16 million to €9 million (−47.8%).

More strikingly, several partners emerged almost from nothing: Canada grew from €366 to €9 million; Ukraine rose from €2 to €6 million; and the United States increased from €2 million to €5 million (+178.6%). Conversely, Belarus — which supplied €256,000 in 2015 — effectively ceased exports to the EU by 2025 (−100.0%), likely reflecting geopolitical sanctions following 2022.

Source: Top import partners — CN 0404

Import flows are considerably more volatile than exports. The volatility data show high coefficients of variation for emerging suppliers: New Zealand (1.35), Ukraine (1.26), China (1.23), Belarus (1.17), South Korea (1.14), and Canada (1.09). This reflects the episodic or rapidly scaling nature of these import relationships rather than stable, long-established supply chains.

The whey segment drives the import contraction while other milk constituents surge

The product segment breakdown reveals that the headline import decline is almost entirely concentrated in subheading 040410 (whey and modified whey). Its import volumes fell from 152,979 tonnes to 79,450 tonnes (−48.0%), while its unit price more than doubled from €405/tonne to €923/tonne (+127.9%). By contrast, imports of subheading 040490 (other natural milk constituents) grew from 1,234 tonnes to 2,719 tonnes (+120.4%), with an extraordinary price increase from €1,930/tonne to €5,392/tonne (+179.4%). This suggests that while the EU has reduced bulk whey purchases — likely because domestic production has become more competitive — it has increased imports of specialised, high-value milk-constituent products.

Source: Product segment comparison — CN 0404

III. Growing self-sufficiency, deepening global integration, and a widening trade surplus

The EU has become a more pronounced net exporter

The net import reliance metric — which is negative when the EU exports more than it imports — deepened from −11.7% in 2015 to −22.9% in 2025, nearly doubling in magnitude (−95.1% change). At its most negative, the indicator reached −29.5%. This confirms that the EU has substantially increased its net exporting position in whey and milk-constituent products, reducing its external dependency while capturing a larger share of global demand.

The trade surplus itself widened from €858 million to €1,352 million (+57.6%), peaking at €1,532 million. This robust surplus underscores the sector's contribution to the EU's agri-food trade balance.

Trade intensity and export propensity have both risen significantly

Despite — or perhaps because of — growing self-sufficiency, the EU's whey sector has become more globally integrated. The trade intensity indicator rose from 13.0% to 20.5% (+57.9%), while export propensity increased from 11.8% to 19.7% (+66.3%). Both indicators peaked around 2022 (trade intensity at 26.0%, export propensity at 24.6%), coinciding with the global dairy price spike. The fact that export propensity is the most salient metric (salience score 96.6) highlights the sector's outward orientation.

Production growth underpins the export expansion

The EU's domestic production capacity has expanded substantially, providing the foundation for rising exports. According to production data, production volumes grew from 13.4 billion kg to 15.9 billion kg (+18.4%), while production value surged from €2.2 billion to €6.8 billion (+207.7%). The near-tripling of production value, far outstripping volume growth, reflects both the shift toward higher-value whey derivatives (protein concentrates, lactose, permeate) and the general escalation of dairy commodity prices during the period.

Specialisation data for 2025 confirms that certain EU members hold strong comparative advantages. Lithuania leads with an RSCA of 0.72 (RCA of 6.21), followed by Estonia (RSCA 0.63), Latvia (0.53), Ireland (0.48), and Finland (0.34). These Baltic and Nordic countries, with their large dairy sectors relative to economic size, are disproportionately specialised in whey exports. Among the top exporting Member States, France leads in absolute terms (€277 million in 2025), followed by the Netherlands (€280 million, +74.8% since 2015), Germany (€215 million, +81.7%), Ireland (€139 million, +55.2%), and Poland (€134 million, +35.6%).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's whey and milk-constituent sector has undergone a profound transformation characterised by three reinforcing dynamics: (1) a strong expansion of exports, particularly to fast-growing Asian markets, supported by rising domestic production capacity; (2) a structural contraction of bulk whey imports accompanied by a shift toward higher-value specialised ingredients; and (3) a deepening of the EU's net exporter status and global trade integration. The trade surplus nearly doubled to €1.35 billion, while production value almost tripled, reflecting both volume growth and a move up the value chain. Geopolitical factors — including Brexit-related trade reconfiguration with the United Kingdom, sanctions on Belarus, and the broader commodity price shock of 2022 — have left visible imprints on the data but have not disrupted the overarching positive trajectory. Looking ahead, the sector's reliance on Asian demand (especially China and South Korea) represents both its greatest growth engine and its most significant concentration risk, warranting continued attention to market diversification.