Market evolution: Natural honey (CN 0409) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in natural honey (customs code 0409) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The EU is a major player in the global honey market, characterized by significant import volumes to meet domestic demand and specialized export activities. The period under review reveals a market undergoing structural shifts, with notable changes in trade volumes, prices, and geographic sourcing. While the EU maintains a persistent trade deficit in honey, the dynamics of this deficit evolved, influenced by changing supplier landscapes, price fluctuations, and major economic shocks. The following sections detail these key trends.

1. The EU’s Structural Trade Deficit: A Narrowing Gap

The European Union consistently imported far more honey in value than it exported throughout the 2015-2025 period, indicating a substantial structural deficit. However, the size of this deficit has not been static; it has undergone a significant and sustained reduction, pointing to a relative strengthening of the EU's export position or a moderation of its import bill.

1.1 A Persistent but Declining Import Bill

The EU's annual import bill for natural honey peaked in 2017 at over €504 million and has since trended downward, reaching approximately €362 million in 2025. This represents a decrease of 13.5% in value over the observed decade, despite the quantity imported increasing by 10.5% from 165,436 tonnes to 182,876 tonnes. This inverse movement indicates a substantial decline in average import prices, which fell by 21.8% from €2,533 per tonne in 2015 to €1,982 per tonne in 2025. This price decline is a major factor in the reduced import value.

1.2 Steady Export Growth

In contrast to the falling import value, EU exports of natural honey showed healthy growth. Export value increased by 20.4% (from €129 million to €156 million), and export volume grew by 16.3% (from 24,135 tonnes to 28,066 tonnes). Export prices remained relatively stable, rising only 3.5% over the period. This consistent growth allowed exports to partially offset the high import volumes.

1.3 A Narrowing Deficit

The combined effect of a declining import value and growing exports was a significant narrowing of the EU's trade deficit. The deficit, measured in euros, decreased by 28.7% over the decade, from -€290 million in 2015 to -€207 million in 2025. The deficit reached its smallest point in 2021 at -€196 million. This trend underscores a gradual rebalancing of the EU's honey trade flows.

Source: General Overview

2. A Shifting Geography of Trade: New Partners Emerge, Old Ones Fade

The composition of the EU's honey trade partners underwent substantial changes between 2015 and 2025. While traditional suppliers from Latin America saw their share decline, imports from Ukraine surged. On the export side, the UK remained the top destination, but exports to markets like the United States and Switzerland grew markedly.

2.1 The Rise of Ukraine and the Decline of Latin America

The most dramatic shift on the import side was the rise of Ukraine, which saw its export value to the EU increase by 144% to become the second-largest supplier. Meanwhile, traditional major suppliers experienced steep declines: Mexico's share fell by 73%, Uruguay by 69%, and Chile by 51%. China remained the largest single supplier but saw its share fall by 36% in value terms. This suggests a significant rebalancing of EU sourcing, potentially driven by geopolitical factors (e.g., EU-Ukraine trade facilitation) and competitive pressures.

Source: Top partners by value

2.2 Diversification of Export Markets

The United Kingdom remained the EU's primary export market, with its share relatively stable at around €28 million. However, the most notable growth was seen in exports to the United States, which surged by 120% to become the fourth-largest destination. Exports to Switzerland and Saudi Arabia also showed strong growth (64% and 12%, respectively). This diversification may reflect EU exporters' efforts to access higher-value markets and reduce dependence on a single major partner.

2.3 Internal EU Specialization

Within the EU, member states show clear specialization in honey production. Southern and Eastern European countries like Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, and Romania exhibit strong comparative advantages (high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage - RSCA scores). Conversely, northern member states like Finland, Estonia, and Sweden are heavily import-dependent. This internal structure shapes the EU's collective trade profile, with specialized producers driving the export basket.

Source: Most specialised reporters

3. Market Concentration and Volatility: Risks in the Supply Chain

The EU's honey market exhibits increasing concentration on the import side and has been subject to significant price shocks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Volatility varies greatly among partners, indicating differing levels of supply risk.

3.1 Increasing Import Concentration

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 13.2% from 1,480 to 1,675 between 2015 and 2025. This rise suggests the EU's import base has become more concentrated. This is driven by the growing share of Ukraine and the reduced market share of several smaller Latin American suppliers, making the EU more reliant on a smaller group of key suppliers. The export market remained less concentrated (HHI around 1,100).

3.2 High and Low Volatility Partners

Import volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), differs drastically. While major suppliers like China (CV=0.21) and Argentina (CV=0.24) showed moderate volatility, others like Uruguay (CV=0.69) and Viet Nam (CV=1.07) were highly volatile, indicating unstable trade flows. On the export side, the EU's trade with its major partners (UK, Switzerland, Japan) was relatively stable (CV<0.21), though some smaller markets like Algeria (CV=0.98) showed extreme fluctuation.

Source: Volatility bars

3.3 Notable Price Shocks

The data identifies several specific shock events. A pronounced price shock occurred in EU exports to the United Kingdom in 2021, with a 27.7% price shift and high abnormality. On the import side, Cuba (2022) and Mexico (2021) experienced significant price shocks with shifts of 36.0% and 37.1%, respectively. These shocks can be linked to broader disruptions such as the post-COVID logistics crunch and inflationary pressures affecting global commodity markets during that period.

Source: Top shock events

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's natural honey market demonstrated a clear trajectory of structural adjustment. The large trade deficit, while persistent, narrowed significantly due to a combination of falling import prices and growing exports. The geographic landscape of trade was redrawn, with Ukraine rising to prominence as a supplier and EU exporters diversifying toward North American and Middle Eastern markets. This evolution, however, came with increased concentration risk on the import side and exposure to episodic price volatility, underscoring the complexity of the global honey supply chain. The trends suggest an EU market that is adapting but remains fundamentally dependent on imports, with its trade balance increasingly influenced by price movements in a competitive global market.