Market evolution: Fermented milk products (CN 0403) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of fermented milk products (CN 0403) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The product category encompasses yogurt, kefir, buttermilk, and other fermented or acidified milk and cream, whether flavoured or containing added ingredients. Based on the provided data, the EU's trade position underwent a fundamental transformation, characterized by a dramatic shift from a marginal net importer to a strong net exporter, underpinned by diverging product trends and significant geographical realignments.

The EU's Dramatic Shift to a Net Export Powerhouse

The period was defined by a complete reversal of the EU's trade balance in fermented dairy, moving from a slight deficit to a substantial surplus.

The EU's trade surplus in value for CN 0403 grew from €631 million in 2015 to over €1.147 billion in 2025, an increase of 81.8% (Trade balance overview). This was driven by robust export growth and a concurrent contraction in import value.

Sustained growth in export value outpaces volume increases

Total EU exports grew from €708.0 million to €1.197 billion (+69.0%), while export volumes rose from 485,236 tonnes to 594,461 tonnes (+22.5%). This indicates that value growth was significantly powered by rising prices, which increased by 37.9% from €1,459/t to €2,012/t. France and Germany were the consistent top exporters, though their growth was surpassed by newer leaders like Greece and Ireland (Top exporting Member States).

Import value declined while volumes remained stable

In contrast, EU imports fell from €76.9 million to €49.4 million (-35.7%). However, imported volumes saw a slight increase from 45,245 tonnes to 47,312 tonnes (+4.6%), meaning the drop in value was almost entirely due to a collapse in import unit prices, which fell by 38.5% from €1,700/t to €1,045/t. This price dynamic made imports less competitive in value terms.

Diverging Fortunes: The Yogurt Surge vs. Other Fermented Milk

The aggregate figures mask a stark divergence between the two main product subcategories: yogurt (CN 040320) and other fermented milk products like kefir and buttermilk (CN 040390).

Yogurt emerged as the primary driver of export growth

Yogurt exports, for which data is available from 2022, exploded in significance. From 2022 to 2025, export volumes for yogurt (CN 040320) surged from 228,127 tonnes to 357,813 tonnes (+56.8%), and their value climbed from €406.3 million to €710.4 million (+74.9%) (Product segment breakdown). By 2025, yogurt accounted for over 60% of total CN 0403 export value, becoming the category's dominant product.

Other fermented milk products saw volumes stagnate while prices rose

For "other fermented milk" (CN 040390), export volumes declined from 305,100 tonnes in 2015 to 236,648 tonnes in 2025 (-22.4%). Nonetheless, its export value increased from €421.0 million to €486.2 million (+15.5%) due to a steep 48.6% rise in unit prices (from €1,380/t to €2,048/t). This suggests a possible shift towards higher-value-added products within this segment. On the import side, other fermented milk volumes remained the dominant import, but its value dropped sharply due to the aforementioned price collapse.

Domestic production scaled dramatically to support exports

Production data from 2025 shows massive scale, with volume at 9.56 million tonnes and value at €16.1 billion, indicating a vast domestic industry oriented increasingly towards export markets. The high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores for countries like Greece (0.88) and Austria (0.44) in 2025 confirm this export specialization within the bloc (Most specialized exporters).

Geographical Realignments and Emerging Risks

Trade partnerships evolved significantly, with established relationships strengthening and new, more volatile partnerships emerging.

The UK remained the cornerstone, but new high-growth markets appeared

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export partner, with trade growing from €431.8 million to €642.2 million (+48.7%). However, the most explosive growth occurred elsewhere. Exports to the United States increased by 3,276% to €59.8 million, and to the Philippines by 586% to €66.2 million (Top export partners). This diversification reduced export concentration, as shown by a falling Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).

Import sourcing shifted from the UK towards Western Balkans and others

The UK's role as an import source for the EU collapsed from €70.2 million to €23.3 million (-66.9%). Conversely, imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina (+3,758%), Serbia (+752%), and Norway (+5,403%) grew substantially, diversifying the import base. This is reflected in the sharp drop in import HHI, indicating a much less concentrated supplier base by 2025.

Volatility and a notable supply shock highlight new dependencies

Despite diversification, certain trade flows exhibited high volatility. Imports from Norway (CV of 1.22) and Ukraine (CV of 1.36) were particularly unstable, while exports to the US also showed considerable volatility (CV of 0.64). A significant price shock was detected in 2022 for exports to the Philippines, where an abnormal price shift of 56% coincided with the country becoming a major partner, underscoring the risks of rapid market entry and potential dependence on a few fast-growing markets (Volatility analysis).

Conclusion

Over the decade to 2025, the EU solidified its position as a leading global exporter of fermented milk products. This transformation was driven by explosive growth in yogurt exports and supported by massive domestic production. Geographically, the EU successfully diversified its export markets beyond the UK towards North America and Asia, while also diversifying its import sources. The era was characterized by rising export values fueled by both volume and price increases, a collapsing import bill due to falling prices, and the emergence of a strong, structurally positive trade balance. However, the high growth rates in new markets have introduced new volatility risks, as illustrated by the shock event in the Philippines, highlighting the need for continued market monitoring as the sector's international footprint expands.