Market evolution: Fermented milk and cream (CN 040390) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) in fermented milk and cream products (excluding yogurt) under customs code 040390 over the period from 2015 to 2025. The code covers a broad range of items, including buttermilk, curdled milk, kephir, and other acidified or fermented milk products, which may be flavoured, sweetened, or in solid forms. The EU maintains a significant trade surplus in this category, but the period under review has seen notable shifts in volumes, values, and trading partners. This analysis will explore the key trends in export performance, the evolution of import dependencies, and the underlying product segment dynamics. For a detailed overview of the product scope and definitions, see the product dashboard.

1. A Paradox of Value and Volume: EU Exports Pivot Towards Higher-Value Products

The decade was characterised by a clear divergence between the value and volume of EU exports, indicating a strategic shift in the product mix and pricing power.

Export value grew while volume contracted

EU export value for CN 040390 increased by 15.5%, from €421 million in 2015 to €486 million in 2025. In stark contrast, the exported volume decreased by 22.4% over the same period, from 305,000 tonnes to 237,000 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a sharp 48.4% increase in the average export price, which rose from €1,380 per tonne to €2,048 per tonne, reaching its peak in the final year of the period. This trend suggests a move away from bulk, lower-value exports towards more specialised, higher-margin products.

Traditional and emerging markets tell different stories

The United Kingdom remained the largest single destination for EU exports but experienced a significant decline in value (-32.2%), falling from €243 million in 2015 to €165 million in 2025. This decline was counterbalanced by substantial growth in other markets. The Philippines saw explosive growth (+585.0%), becoming a major destination worth €65.6 million in 2025. Similarly, exports to Malaysia (+303.4%), Saudi Arabia (+307.5%), and Kosovo (+184.1%) grew substantially. This geographic diversification helped offset the loss in the UK market. More details on trade by partner can be found on the partners dashboard.

2022 saw significant price shocks in key Asian markets

A notable disruption occurred in 2022, when major price shocks were detected for exports to Southeast Asia. The most significant was in the Philippines, where the average price surged by 56.2%, contributing to a 12.1% share of total export value that year. Similar, though smaller, price abnormalities were recorded for exports to Saudi Arabia (+66.4%) and Indonesia (+63.3%) in the same year. These shocks, detailed in the supply shocks analysis, highlight the volatility in pricing for certain non-European markets.

2. The Import Surge: A Dramatic Rise in Volume and New Supplier Entry

In parallel to its strong export performance, the EU's imports of CN 040390 underwent a transformation, growing from a minor flow to a significant volume, driven by a diversification of suppliers and lower average prices.

Import volumes nearly tripled, transforming the trade balance metric

EU import volume surged by 175.7%, from 12,743 tonnes in 2015 to 35,136 tonnes in 2025. The import value grew more moderately by 41.7%, reaching €26.3 million. This is explained by a 48.6% drop in the average import price to €749 per tonne. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance (imports minus exports as a share of production) shifted from a slight positive (0.33%) in 2015 to a deeply negative figure (-6.76%) in 2025, confirming the EU's position as a strong net exporter.

Traditional and new suppliers reshaped the import landscape

The United Kingdom's share of EU imports fell significantly in value (-40.3%). More importantly, several new or previously minor suppliers grew dramatically. Bosnia and Herzegovina grew from a negligible value in 2015 to €5.3 million in 2025. Serbia and New Zealand followed a similar path, becoming multi-million-euro suppliers by 2025. This diversification is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, which plummeted by 72%, indicating a much less concentrated and therefore more resilient import base. The evolution of these partners is visible on the reporters dashboard.

Member state import patterns varied widely

Among EU member states, Ireland remained the largest importer, though its value decreased by 37.6%. The most dramatic growth was seen in Bulgaria (+1,881,810.8%), Croatia (+687.9%), and France (+1,116.8%), which transformed from minor to significant importers. These figures suggest growing intra-EU flows or targeted procurement strategies by specific national industries.

3. Product Segmentation: Liquid Flavoured Products Drive Imports, While Solid Unsweetened Forms Lead Exports

The composition of traded goods within the CN 040390 category reveals distinct specialisations for EU imports and exports, aligning with the observed price trends.

EU exports are dominated by solid and unsweetened liquid forms

The top three exported product segments in 2025 by value were solid forms (04039013: €175 million), low-fat flavoured liquids (04039091: €135 million), and mid-fat flavoured liquids (04039093: €49 million). Notably, the segment for low-fat flavoured liquids (04039091) experienced the largest volume decline (-44.4% since 2015), while its value remained relatively stable, reinforcing the theme of rising prices.

Imports shifted towards bulk, unsweetened liquid and solid forms

The import profile changed dramatically. In 2025, the largest import segment by value was unsweetened liquids (04039051: €10.0 million), followed by solid unsweetened forms (04039013: €6.0 million) and flavoured low-fat liquids (04039091: €3.5 million). The volume growth in the unsweetened liquid segment (04039051) was colossal, from 1,171 tonnes in 2015 to 24,367 tonnes in 2025. This points to the EU increasingly sourcing basic, bulk fermented dairy intermediates or ingredients from third countries.

Some product segments vanished from the trade

Certain segments collapsed. For instance, imports of high-fat sweetened solids (04039039) fell from over 4,000 tonnes in 2015 to just 0.03 tonnes in 2025. Similarly, exports of high-fat flavoured solids (04039079) ceased almost entirely by 2025. These shifts could reflect changing consumer preferences, regulatory adjustments, or supply chain restructuring within the dairy sector.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in fermented milk and cream (CN 040390) underwent a significant structural transformation. The bloc solidified its position as a major net exporter, but through a strategy of value over volume—exporting higher-priced products while reducing overall tonnage. Exports diversified geographically, reducing dependency on the UK and capturing growth in Asia and the Middle East. Simultaneously, the EU's import profile expanded in volume, sourced from an increasingly diverse set of global suppliers, primarily for bulk, unsweetened products. This dual trend suggests the EU is leveraging its advanced dairy processing capabilities to export value-added products while sourcing more basic commodities on the global market. The market remains dynamic, with specific product segments growing, shrinking, or disappearing, reflecting evolving competitive advantages and consumer demand. The overall picture is one of a maturing market where the EU is optimising its role in global dairy value chains. The full dataset and interactive visualisations are available on the Trade Dashboard.