Market evolution: Other cheese (CN 040690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in cheese classified under Combined Nomenclature code 040690 from 2015 to 2025. This category is a residual group encompassing many specific cheese types not included elsewhere, such as Cheddar, Emmentaler, Gouda, and various others, but excludes fresh cheese, processed cheese, blue-veined cheese, and grated or powdered cheese. The analysis draws exclusively on the provided trade data to identify key trends in export performance, trade partnerships, market concentration, and underlying structural shifts.

A Resilient Export Powerhouse Driven by Value over Volume

The EU has significantly strengthened its position as a net exporter of "other cheese" (CN 040690) over the decade, with growth overwhelmingly driven by rising unit prices rather than volume increases. Between the first and last available data points (2015 and 2025), the total value of exports grew by 70.5%, far outpacing the 11.4% increase in exported quantity. This indicates substantial price appreciation and a potential shift towards higher-value cheese products in the EU's export basket.

The EU's trade surplus expanded robustly, growing by 75.6% over the same period. This resilience is further underscored by the performance during the 2020 pandemic year, where export volumes dipped but rebounded strongly in subsequent years, reaching a peak in 2023. Import growth, while also positive in value terms (+50.1%), was more muted in volume (+6.0%), suggesting similar price dynamics on the import side but highlighting the EU's dominant external surplus.

Italy, Netherlands, and France are the Export Engines

The growth in export value was not uniform across EU Member States. Italy emerged as the standout performer, more than doubling its export value from €574 million to €1.21 billion (+111.1%). The Netherlands and France also maintained large and growing export bases. Collectively, these three countries accounted for a major share of the EU's total exports, indicating a high degree of production and export specialization within the bloc. Spain also showed impressive growth (+91.2%), pointing to a diversification of export capabilities beyond traditional northern and southern European powerhouses.

Price Resilience Amidst Global Shocks

The period saw significant price volatility, particularly a sharp increase in 2022. Analysis of supply shock events reveals that EU exporters successfully passed on cost increases, especially to markets in North Africa. A pronounced price shock for exports to Algeria in 2022, with an abnormality score of 55.8 and a year-on-year price shift of 53.0%, demonstrates the pricing power of EU cheese in certain destinations. Similar, though less extreme, price shifts were observed for exports to Egypt and Bosnia and Herzegovina, suggesting broader inflationary pressures in the global dairy market that the EU navigated while maintaining its trade position.

Partner Dynamics: Consolidation in Traditional Markets, Emergence of New Ones

The geographic concentration of EU trade in CN 040690 shifted slightly between 2015 and 2025, with traditional partners remaining dominant but showing divergent growth trajectories. The EU's import sourcing, in particular, underwent a structural change following the United Kingdom's departure from the single market.

The UK and Switzerland Anchor Import Flows, but with Evolving Roles

The United Kingdom and Switzerland were the two largest sources of EU imports throughout the period. However, their paths diverged significantly. UK imports to the EU saw solid value growth of 50.3%, reaching €402 million. In contrast, Swiss imports, while still the largest single source at €470 million, grew at a slower rate (35.3%). This suggests that Brexit may have re-routed some cheese trade flows, with the UK transitioning from an intra-EU to an extra-EU partner, thereby appearing in this data. The relatively lower volatility of these trade flows (CV of 0.15 for UK, 0.05 for Switzerland) underscores their stable, mature trade relationships.

Import Diversification from Emerging Non-EU Partners

While the top two partners dominated, the data reveals a surge in imports from several other non-EU countries, albeit from a low base. Imports from Serbia grew by 487.9%, from Norway by 242.0%, and from the United States by 803.3%. Most strikingly, imports from Türkiye went from a negligible €170 in 2015 to €8.8 million in 2025. This diversification indicates the EU is increasingly sourcing specific cheese types from a wider set of global producers, potentially to meet niche demand or for cost competitiveness.

Market Structure: Specialization, Concentration, and Production Links

The EU's cheese market exhibits clear internal specialization and maintains a moderately concentrated export profile, while production growth has kept pace with rising trade values.

Export Specialization Aligns with Traditional Cheese Regions

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) for 2025 shows that EU Member States with renowned cheese-making traditions are highly specialized in exporting CN 040690 products. Cyprus (RCA of 34.59), Greece (8.09), and Luxembourg (5.38) top the list. Conversely, countries like Malta, Hungary, and Slovenia show no comparative advantage (RCA <1). This specialization likely underpins the high value and brand recognition of the EU's cheese exports.

Export Markets are More Diversified than Import Sources

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell from 1,396 to 1,242 between 2015 and 2025, indicating a trend towards greater diversification of destination markets. In contrast, the import HHI, while also declining, remained significantly higher (4,812 to 4,266). This confirms that the EU's export base is broader, while its import sourcing, though becoming more varied, is still heavily reliant on a small number of key partners like the UK and Switzerland.

Production Growth Supports Expanding Trade

EU production of cheese in this category grew substantially over the period. Production value increased by 116.4%, and quantity by 32.9%. This production expansion aligns with the increase in export volumes and values, suggesting that the EU's domestic dairy sector has successfully scaled to meet both internal demand and expanding international opportunities. The trade intensity and export propensity of the sector also increased, highlighting its growing orientation towards global markets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its role as a leading global exporter of "other cheese" (CN 040690). Growth was primarily value-driven, fueled by significant price increases that the sector successfully implemented, even amidst global shocks like the pandemic and inflationary spikes. The trade surplus expanded markedly, underpinned by a productive domestic sector that increased output. While trade with traditional partners like the UK and Switzerland remained foundational, the period also saw a notable diversification in both import sources and, to a lesser extent, export destinations. The EU's cheese trade profile is characterized by strong intra-bloc specialization, a moderately diversified export market, and a resilient capacity to navigate external economic pressures through price adjustments.