Market evolution: Fresh cheese (CN 040610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in fresh cheese (Customs code 040610) from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on an examination of trade flows, market structure, and key performance indicators, focusing on the dynamics between the EU and its non-EU trading partners. Over this period, the EU's fresh cheese sector has undergone significant transformation, characterized by robust export growth, evolving market relationships, and notable price pressures, culminating in a strengthened net export position.

1. Export-Led Growth and Diversifying Global Reach

The EU's fresh cheese trade expanded dramatically between 2015 and 2025, with a pronounced expansion in exports driving overall market evolution. This growth was supported by production scaling and a strategic pivot towards high-value Asian and Middle Eastern markets, while traditional relationships with the United Kingdom evolved post-Brexit.

1.1 A Surge in Exports Far Outpacing Import Growth

The period saw the EU transform into a far more significant net exporter of fresh cheese. Export value increased by 136.2% (from €940 million to €2.22 billion), while export volume grew by 49.2% (from 316,508 tonnes to 472,300 tonnes). In contrast, imports grew at a slower pace, with value rising 76.8% and volume by 46.6%. Consequently, the EU's trade balance in value strengthened dramatically, from a surplus of €815 million in 2015 to nearly €2 billion in 2025.

1.2 The United Kingdom Remains the Core Partner, but its Share has Diminished

The United Kingdom is the EU's largest partner for both imports and exports. However, its role has shifted. In exports, its share has declined as other markets grew rapidly. While export value to the UK grew by 83.9%, its share of total EU export value decreased from 51.6% (2015) to 40.2% (2025). Conversely, the UK remains the dominant source for EU imports, with its share of import value rising from 77.2% to 59.8%, indicating a post-Brexit intensification of this bilateral flow.

1.3 Rapid Expansion into High-Growth Asian and Middle Eastern Markets

A key trend is the aggressive diversification of EU export markets beyond Europe. Significant growth was recorded in:

This expansion into geographically distant markets suggests successful adaptation to global dairy demand and possibly the leveraging of EU quality designations.

2. Evolving Market Structure and Concentration

The structure of the EU's fresh cheese trade has become more distributed and specialized, with production increasingly concentrated among specific Member States and trade flows becoming less reliant on a single dominant partner.

2.1 Production Growth Sustains Export Capacity

EU production of fresh cheese grew substantially, with quantity rising 49.6% and value increasing by 129.0%. This indicates both higher volumes and significant price inflation for domestically produced cheese, providing the foundation for the export expansion. The sector's trade intensity—the ratio of trade to production—increased from 4.9% to 13.0%, confirming its growing outward orientation.

2.2 Specialization Varies Widely Across Member States

Analysis of export specialization reveals stark differences among EU producers. Denmark is the most specialized exporter (RSCA of 0.67), while Italy and Germany are the largest exporters by absolute value. Conversely, countries like Portugal and Finland show no comparative advantage, indicating internal EU specialization and possibly a regional division of labor within the dairy chain.

2.3 Decreasing Trade Concentration Reflects Partner Diversification

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, declined for both exports and imports, signaling a less concentrated trade structure. The HHI for exports fell from 2,921 to 1,852 (-36.6%). For imports, it decreased from 6,266 to 4,367 (-30.3%). This confirms the narrative of diversifying away from a UK-centric model towards a broader set of partners.

3. Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Resilience

Price increases were a major feature of the period, with export prices rising faster than import prices. The market faced several price shocks, particularly in 2022, but the EU's deepening net export position suggests a resilient and competitive sector.

3.1 Strong Price Growth, Especially in Exports

The average EU export price rose by 58.3% (from €2,970/tonne to €4,700/tonne), outpacing the 20.6% increase in the average import price (from €3,513/tonne to €4,236/tonne). This differential growth widened the unit value gap, reinforcing the EU's position as a supplier of premium products. High-fat fresh cheeses (CN 04061080) consistently commanded the highest prices, often exceeding €4,500/tonne.

3.2 Significant Price Shocks in Key Asian Markets in 2022

Volatility analysis identifies several shock events, with the most pronounced occurring in 2022. Exports to Korea and Japan experienced extreme price abnormality (+28.4 and +18.1 respectively) and significant year-on-year price shifts (+50.4% and +29.5%). This likely reflects a combination of global supply chain disruptions (e.g., post-COVID, logistics costs) and strong post-pandemic demand in these markets.

3.3 Strengthened Autonomy and Reduced Net Import Reliance

The EU's net import reliance for fresh cheese became more negative, moving from -4.0% in 2015 to -12.3% in 2025. This 210.3% change indicates a substantial increase in the EU's net export capacity for this product category. The sector's export propensity (export-to-production ratio) more than tripled from 4.4% to 12.0%, highlighting its growing integration into global markets and enhanced strategic autonomy.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU fresh cheese market (CN 040610) has been fundamentally reshaped. It evolved from a sector with a moderate net surplus into a strongly export-oriented industry with a nearly €2 billion trade surplus. This transformation was driven by sustained production growth, successful geographic diversification towards high-growth Asian and Middle Eastern markets, and a strategic shift towards higher-value products. Despite experiencing significant price shocks and volatility, particularly in 2022, the sector demonstrated resilience. The decreasing concentration of trade and the strengthened net export position underscore a more diversified, competitive, and autonomous EU fresh cheese industry on the global stage.