Market evolution: Live plants and bulbs (CN 06) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade evolution of the European Union (EU) in live trees, plants, bulbs, cut flowers, and ornamental foliage (Combined Nomenclature code 06) with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a robust and growing sector where the EU maintains a significant trade surplus. However, underlying this overall growth are profound structural shifts: a declining volume of imports coupled with a sharp increase in their unit value, a strong specialization of the Netherlands, and emerging volatility in supply chains. The following sections detail these main dynamics.
1. A Resilient Surplus Driven by Price Inflation and Stable Export Volumes
The EU consistently maintains a large and growing trade surplus in CN 06 products. This positive balance is not primarily fueled by increasing the physical quantity of exports, but rather by a combination of stable export volumes and a dramatic rise in import prices.
The EU's trade surplus expanded by 39% over the decade
The EU's trade balance for live plants and related products increased from €1.75 billion in 2015 to €2.43 billion in 2025, a rise of 38.7%. This growth in the surplus occurred despite a significant decline in import volumes, as the value of exports outpaced the value of imports. The General Overview provides a summary of these aggregate trends.
| Metric (EUR) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports | 3,339,781,627 | 4,641,797,714 | +39.0 |
| Imports | 1,588,910,764 | 2,213,246,071 | +39.3 |
| Balance | 1,750,870,863 | 2,428,551,643 | +38.7 |
Import volumes fell while export volumes remained stable
A striking feature is the divergence in quantity trends. Over the period, the volume of EU imports fell by 14.4%, from 503,505 tonnes to 431,091 tonnes. In contrast, the volume of exports saw a modest increase of 5.6%. This indicates that the EU's export strength is not based on massively increasing output volume but on maintaining it, while its import strategy has seen a physical reduction.
Dramatic price increases, especially for imports, propelled value growth
The dominant factor behind the growth in both export and import values is price inflation. The average unit price of EU exports rose by 31.6% over the decade. More dramatically, the average price of EU imports surged by 62.8%, from €3,154 per tonne to €5,134 per tonne. This steep rise in import costs, occurring alongside falling volumes, suggests a combination of factors including increased global production costs, logistical expenses, and possibly a shift towards higher-value imported products.
2. Divergent Fortunes Across Product Segments
The umbrella code CN 06 covers distinct product categories whose trade dynamics differ markedly. Cut flowers remain the dominant import category by value, while live plants are the largest export segment. Significant price inflation has affected all segments, but most acutely for bulbs and tubers.
Cut flowers dominate imports, while live plants lead exports
The product segment breakdown shows a clear structural pattern. For EU imports, cut flowers (CN 0603) are the single largest category, accounting for a value of €1.49 billion in 2025. For exports, live plants (CN 0602) are the leader, valued at €2.01 billion in 2025. The Product Segment Breakdown allows for a detailed comparison of these flows.
| Segment (Imports) | 2015 Value (€) | 2025 Value (€) | 2025 Volume (t) | Avg. Price Change (€/t, 2015→2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0603: Cut flowers | 952,969,354 | 1,486,815,022 | 246,092 | +99% |
| 0602: Live plants | 307,075,878 | 460,821,200 | 123,081 | +13% |
| 0604: Foliage | 217,289,018 | 197,020,619 | 41,043 | +47% |
| 0601: Bulbs | 89,789,344 | 68,507,530 | 20,873 | +10% |
The import price of bulbs exhibited extreme volatility
Among all segments, bulbs and tubers (CN 0601) experienced the most erratic price behavior. The average import price per tonne peaked at €11,627 in 2016 and subsequently collapsed to €3,282 by 2025. This volatility, distinct from the more steady upward trend in other categories, points to potential supply disruptions, speculative trading, or significant shifts in the mix of bulb varieties being imported.
Export prices for cut flowers and live plants show a steady, strong increase
While import prices were volatile, export prices for the EU's main categories displayed a consistent upward trajectory. The export price for cut flowers (CN 0603) rose steadily from €6,058/t in 2015 to €8,573/t in 2025. Similarly, the price for live plants (CN 0602) increased from €1,834/t to €2,507/t. This consistent inflation reflects growing global demand and rising production costs within the EU for these high-quality products.
3. Market Concentration and Geographical Shocks
The EU's trade in CN 06 is characterized by a high degree of geographical concentration, particularly on the export side. The Netherlands acts as the central hub for both imports and exports, a position that has strengthened over time. Meanwhile, the import side shows signs of increased supplier concentration and has been subject to notable price shocks from key African suppliers.
The Netherlands' dominant and growing role in the EU trade hub
The Netherlands is by far the most significant EU member state in this sector. In 2025, it accounted for 78% of total EU export value to non-EU countries (€3.61 billion) and 78% of EU import value (€1.72 billion). Its specialization (RSCA of 0.65) is exceptionally high, confirming its role as the primary European trade and logistics hub for horticultural products. The data on Top Reporters by Value underscores this dominance.
| EU Member State | 2015 Export Value (€) | 2025 Export Value (€) | Share of EU Exports (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2,417,322,834 | 3,607,435,763 | 77.7% |
| Italy | 160,404,482 | 251,880,364 | 5.4% |
| Spain | 80,793,366 | 171,400,410 | 3.7% |
Import concentration increased, with African suppliers growing in importance
On the import side, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value increased from 1047 to 1181, indicating slightly higher concentration. This is partly due to the growing share of suppliers like Ecuador and Colombia. However, African nations remain critical, with Kenya and Ethiopia being the top two suppliers. Their combined import value grew from €577 million in 2015 to €732 million in 2025. The Partners view details these relationships.
Supply-side price shocks were detected in key African corridors
The volatility analysis reveals significant price shocks from specific partners. In 2022, imports from Ethiopia and Uganda experienced abnormal price increases (shifts of 86.3% and 165.6%, respectively). Given the perishable nature of these goods, such shocks are likely linked to logistics disruptions (e.g., air freight costs), weather events, or energy cost inflation in producing countries, impacting the cost structure of EU importers. The Supply Shocks tab highlights these events.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's market for live plants and ornamental foliage has demonstrated solid value growth, securing a substantial and expanding trade surplus. This performance, however, masks a fundamental transformation: the era of growth through increasing physical import volumes has ended, replaced by an era of price-driven value growth. The market is increasingly characterized by the central logistics role of the Netherlands, stable but rising export prices, and a greater exposure to cost inflation and volatility from its key third-country suppliers, particularly in Africa. Future resilience will depend on managing these cost pressures and ensuring the stability of international supply chains for these perishable goods.