Market evolution: Ornamental foliage (CN 0604) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of ornamental foliage, classified under Customs Code 0604, within the European Union's external trade from 2015 to 2025. The product category, encompassing fresh, dried, and otherwise prepared foliage, grasses, and lichens for ornamental use, plays a significant role in the floricultural supply chain. Over the eleven-year period, the EU market witnessed substantial shifts in trade volumes, values, and partner relationships, influenced by global events and structural changes within the industry. The general overview dashboard provides the foundational data for this analysis.

1. A Structural Shift: The EU's Decreasing Import Reliance and Evolving Export Profile

The most pronounced trend over the period is the significant reduction in the EU's import dependency, alongside a more modest but steady growth in exports, fundamentally altering its trade balance.

A. Import Volume Contracts While Prices Soar

EU imports of ornamental foliage underwent a major contraction in volume while experiencing a dramatic increase in unit price. The quantity imported fell by 38.4%, from 66,649 tonnes in 2015 to 41,043 tonnes in 2025. Despite this, the total value of imports decreased by a more modest 9.3%, indicating a steep rise in average import prices. This price increase of 47.2% (from €3,260/t to €4,800/t) suggests a market shift towards higher-value products, increased sourcing costs, or a combination of both.

B. Export Growth Driven by Value-Added Products

In contrast, EU exports showed resilience, growing in both value (+28.1%) and quantity (+17.8%). A key driver was the divergent performance of product sub-segments. While exports of fresh foliage (060420) saw strong volume growth (44,371 tonnes in 2025 vs. 35,756 in 2015), the real value surge came from prepared foliage (060490). The value of exports for the prepared segment more than doubled, indicating a strategic move or advantage in higher-margin, processed ornamental products.

Data sourced from the General Overview.

C. Internal EU Market Reorganization

The concentration of trade within the EU itself shifted. The Netherlands consolidated its position as the dominant exporter to non-EU countries, with its share growing from €68.1M in 2015 to €89.7M in 2025. Conversely, Germany's role as an exporter declined significantly (-29.7%). On the import side, while the Netherlands remained the primary entry point, its absolute import value decreased. Notably, France, Poland, and Spain substantially increased their import activity, indicating a potential decentralization of procurement within the EU. The reporters view details this internal reconfiguration.

2. Price Volatility and Pandemic Aftermath: A Market in Disruption

The ornamental foliage market experienced notable volatility, with a dramatic price shock occurring in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, reshaping cost structures.

A. The 2021-2022 Price Surge

A clear disruption is visible in the price data around 2021-2022. For imports, the average price for prepared foliage (060490) surged to a peak of €6,641/t in 2022, a 95% increase from pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Export prices for both segments also spiked sharply. This period aligns with global supply chain disruptions, heightened shipping costs, and strong post-lockdown demand for home and event decoration, allowing producers and traders to pass on significantly higher costs.

B. Post-Pandemic Correction and Sustained High Prices

While some price moderation occurred after the 2022 peak, with the import price for fresh foliage (060420) falling from its 2022 high of €4,661/t to €4,755/t in 2025, the market did not return to pre-2020 price levels. The new price plateau remains substantially higher than in 2015-2019. This indicates a permanent shift in the cost base for the sector, likely due to sustained increases in labour, energy, and logistics costs, as well as possible inflationary expectations.

C. Persistent Import Price Premium

Throughout the period, the average price of prepared foliage (060490) imports into the EU consistently exceeded that of exports, sometimes by a wide margin (e.g., in 2022: €6,641/t import vs. €6,980/t export price for 060490). This premium suggests the EU sources specialized or niche prepared products from third countries that command higher market values domestically, or reflects the added cost of importation and certification.

3. Geopolitical Reconfiguration of Supply and Demand Networks

External shocks, most notably geopolitical conflicts, profoundly reconfigured the EU's traditional trade corridors for ornamental foliage, forcing a rapid diversification of partners.

A. The Collapse of the Russian Market

The most dramatic shock was the virtual cessation of EU exports to Russia. From a peak of €26.9M in 2021, exports collapsed to just €0.02M by 2025, a decline of 99.9%. This was a supply shock event triggered by sanctions and the geopolitical fallout from the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Belarus saw a similar, though less severe, collapse (-96.2%).

B. Rapid Diversification to New Destinations

The loss of the Russian market coincided with an explosive growth in exports to other partners, indicating successful, though likely reactive, market diversification. Exports to Kyrgyzstan surged from a negligible €8,735 in 2015 to €6.6M in 2025. Simultaneously, exports to the United States grew by 207.2% to reach €13.3M, becoming the EU's second-largest non-EU destination. The partners view highlights this dramatic reorientation.

C. Changing Sourcing Patterns

On the import side, the EU also diversified its sources. While the United States and Costa Rica remained the largest suppliers, their share decreased. Imports from China grew by 81.1% in value, and from Türkiye by 61.6%. Conversely, some traditional suppliers like Costa Rica saw their exports to the EU nearly halve. This suggests EU importers are seeking new origins, possibly for cost or variety reasons, and reflects changing global production patterns. The market's import concentration (HHI) decreased by 32.9%, confirming this reduced reliance on a few key suppliers.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for ornamental foliage (CN 0604) underwent a profound transformation. Structurally, the bloc moved towards lower import reliance and improved its trade balance, with a pronounced focus on higher-value prepared products for export. The period was punctuated by severe volatility, most acutely a post-pandemic price surge that established a new, higher price paradigm. Geopolitically, the market was violently reshaped by the conflict in Ukraine, which erased the Russian export market and catalysed a swift, if costly, pivot to new destinations in Central Asia and North America. Overall, the decade was characterized by adaptation, marked by rising costs, strategic product shifts, and a forced but rapid realignment of global trade networks.