Market evolution: Dormant flowering bulbs (CN 0601) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in customs code 0601 — covering bulbs, tubers, tuberous roots, corms, crowns, rhizomes (both dormant and in growth or in flower), as well as chicory plants and roots, excluding those intended for human consumption. Over the decade to 2025, the European Union has consolidated its position as the world's dominant exporter of ornamental planting material, with export values rising by 60.5% to nearly €975 million. At the same time, the trade landscape has been reshaped by geopolitical disruptions, shifting partner dynamics, and a pronounced divergence between the two product sub-classes. The following sections unpack these trends.

1. Rising values on stable volumes: The EU's pricing power in ornamental bulbs

Export values surged while quantities barely moved

The most striking macro-level dynamic is the divergence between export value and export volume. Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 0601 grew from €607 million to €975 million — a 60.5% increase in value. Yet over the same period, exported tonnage actually declined slightly, from 212,363 tonnes to 201,731 tonnes (−5.0%). The entire value growth was therefore driven by unit prices, which rose from €2,860 per tonne to €4,832 per tonne — a 69% increase (trade overview).

This pattern reflects a combination of factors: inflation in production inputs (energy, land, labour), a shift toward higher-value cultivars and specialty varieties, and the pricing leverage that comes from a concentrated supply base. The EU — and the Netherlands in particular — commands a near-monopoly in many bulb categories, allowing producers to pass costs through to buyers rather than compete on volume.

The Netherlands dominates EU exports to an extraordinary degree

The concentration of EU exports within the bloc is remarkable. The Netherlands alone accounted for €569 million in 2015 and €911 million in 2025, representing over 93% of total EU external exports by value. This dominance grew over the period — Dutch exports rose by 60.1% while some other member states saw declines or stagnation (top reporters by value).

A handful of smaller exporters — Belgium, Italy, Poland, and France — grew strongly from low bases, but their combined 2025 exports (€38 million) remain a small fraction of the Dutch total. Germany, the second-largest exporter at the start of the period, saw its share erode, while Lithuania's exports essentially disappeared.

Specialisation data confirms a Dutch near-monopoly

Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) data for 2025 shows the Netherlands with an RCA of 5.80 — far exceeding the threshold of 1 that indicates specialisation — and a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.71. No other EU member state reaches an RCA above 1. Denmark (0.90), Belgium (0.43), Portugal (0.53), and Slovenia (0.53) are the next most specialised, but none are competitive at the international level (specialisation data).

The EU's trade surplus widened dramatically

The combination of rising export values and declining import values produced a sharply widening trade surplus. The EU's net balance in CN 0601 grew from €518 million in 2015 to €906 million in 2025 — a 75% increase. This underscores the EU's structural role as the world's primary supplier of ornamental planting material.

2. Geopolitical shocks and partner realignment reshape trade flows

The collapse of exports to Russia is the single largest disruption

The most dramatic event in the dataset is the near-total collapse of EU exports to the Russian Federation. From €38.6 million in 2015, exports fell to just €0.5 million by 2025 — a 98.7% decline. The steepest drop occurred around 2022–2024, consistent with the escalating sanctions regime following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. A major supply shock was detected in 2024, with Russian exports collapsing by 99.7%. This loss of market — which represented over 6% of EU export value in 2015 — was absorbed by growth elsewhere.

China, the UK, and Canada filled the gap

Three markets more than compensated for the Russian loss:

China's emergence as the EU's single largest export destination by 2025 (€164 million) is particularly noteworthy. The UK — despite Brexit and the introduction of phytosanitary checks — also more than doubled its imports of EU bulbs, suggesting that the horticultural linkages between the Netherlands and British gardeners proved resilient to trade barriers (top partners by value).

Japan, by contrast, saw a 23% decline in EU bulb imports (from €43 million to €33 million), reflecting both demographic headwinds and possible sourcing diversification.

EU import sourcing shifted toward South America

On the import side, the EU's sourcing of bulbs from non-EU countries has undergone a pronounced geographic reorientation:

Taiwan's collapse is extraordinary: from the EU's largest import source in 2015 (€23 million, representing over 25% of all imports) to just €1.1 million in 2025. A major price shock was detected in 2017, when import prices from Taiwan doubled. This likely reflects a restructuring of supply chains — possibly related to shifting production of lily bulbs and other species traditionally grown in Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Peru and Chile have emerged as major Southern Hemisphere suppliers, with combined imports growing from €10 million to €29 million. These countries benefit from counter-seasonal production that allows year-round supply of planting material.

Export concentration increased, reflecting the Dutch squeeze

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by destination rose from 851 to 929 over the period, indicating a modest increase in export partner concentration. For imports, the HHI (by value) increased from 1,176 to 1,262 — a more notable shift, reflecting the collapse of Taiwan and the growing weight of a few South American suppliers (concentration data).

Import volatility is high and geographically dispersed

Coefficient of variation data reveals that EU import flows are far more volatile than export flows. Imports from Brazil (CV 1.53), the United States (1.67), Peru (1.03), and Thailand (1.04) exhibit very high year-to-year fluctuations. By contrast, the EU's main export destinations — the United States (CV 0.13), the United Kingdom (0.18), and Switzerland (0.13) — show much more stable demand patterns (volatility data). This asymmetry suggests that the EU's export markets are mature and relationship-driven, while its import sourcing is more opportunistic or subject to climatic and production variability in supplying countries.

3. Dormant bulbs dominate growth; the live-plant segment is in structural decline on the import side

The two sub-classes tell very different stories

CN 0601 bundles two distinct sub-classes: 060110 (dormant bulbs, tubers, and similar planting material) and 060120 (bulbs and plants in growth or in flower, plus chicory plants and roots). Their trajectories over the decade are markedly different (product segment breakdown).

Exports by sub-class:

Dormant bulbs account for the vast majority of exports by value (87% in 2025) and saw a 58% increase in value despite a decline in volume. This is the same price-driven growth pattern visible at the aggregate level. The "in growth or in flower" segment grew more modestly in value (+80%) and saw a volume increase of +54%, suggesting a different market dynamic — possibly driven by growing demand for ready-to-plant ornamental products in retail channels.

EU imports of live plants have collapsed

The most dramatic segment-level trend is the near-disappearance of EU imports in sub-class 060120 (bulbs in growth or in flower, chicory plants and roots):

Imports of 060120 fell by over 90% in both volume and value. This likely reflects the EU's growing self-sufficiency in live-plant production, combined with tighter phytosanitary controls on importing growing plants (which carry higher pest and disease risks than dormant material). The unit price of 060120 imports remained very high (€9,137/t in 2025, versus €3,159/t for 060110), consistent with niche or specialty live-plant shipments rather than bulk trade.

Dormant bulb imports, by contrast, remained relatively stable in volume and even grew in value (from €41 million to €65 million), with unit prices rising from €1,601/t to €3,159/t — a near-doubling that mirrors the export-side pricing trend.

Germany's import collapse is largely a dormant-bulb story

Among EU member states, the most striking import-side development is Germany's decline from €16.2 million in 2015 to just €1.4 million in 2025 (−91.2%). The Netherlands, by far the largest importer (€58 million in 2025), saw only a modest 5.6% decline — consistent with its role as a re-export hub that imports dormant bulbs for growing, processing, and re-exporting as finished or semi-finished products (top reporters by value).

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in ornamental bulbs and planting material (CN 0601) has been characterised by three overarching dynamics: value growth driven by pricing rather than volume, reflecting the EU's — and especially the Netherlands' — dominant market position; a dramatic geopolitical reshuffling of trade partners, with the collapse of Russia as an export destination and Taiwan as an import source, offset by surging trade with China, the UK, Canada, Peru, and Chile; and a structural divergence between dormant and live-plant segments, with the latter's import trade nearly vanishing while dormant bulb imports held steady.

The market's future trajectory will depend on several factors: whether China's demand growth can be sustained amid broader economic uncertainty; whether phytosanitary and trade barriers continue to reconfigure sourcing patterns; and how energy and climate pressures affect production costs in the Netherlands' concentrated bulb-growing region. The data suggests that the EU's position as the world's ornamental bulb powerhouse remains secure, but that the geographic and product contours of that trade are evolving rapidly.