Market evolution: Live plants (CN 0602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of trade in live plants (CN 0602) for the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a period of robust growth, structural shifts, and significant geographical reorientation. The EU has solidified its position as a major net exporter in this sector, though its import profile has also transformed considerably.

1. Robust Growth Fueled by Soaring Exports

The decade under review was characterized by strong expansion in the value of EU trade in live plants, with exports growing significantly faster than imports, leading to a substantial widening of the trade surplus.

The EU's trade surplus expanded by over 50%

Despite both exports and imports growing in value, the EU's export performance was markedly stronger. This resulted in a trade surplus that increased from approximately €1.02 billion in 2015 to over €1.55 billion in 2025, a rise of 52.5%. This indicates the EU's strengthened competitive position and role as a key supplier to global markets for live plants.

Source: General Overview - Trade

Export growth was driven by price increases and volume stability

While the quantity of exports increased by 11.1% over the period, the bulk of the value growth (+51.9%) came from a 36.7% rise in average export prices. This suggests a shift in the EU's export basket towards higher-value plants. In contrast, import value growth was roughly evenly split between higher volumes (+33.3%) and higher prices (+12.6%).

2. Internal Shifts in Product Composition and Pricing

The aggregate figures mask significant divergences within the sub-categories of CN 0602. The dominant sub-category experienced explosive volume growth, while other segments showed different pricing dynamics.

The dominant "live plants" sub-category drove import volume expansion

The sub-category "Live plants, mushroom spawn" (CN 060290) accounted for the vast majority of import value in 2025 (≈59%). Its imported quantity surged by 146.5% from 2015 to 2022, before moderating, indicating a strong and sustained increase in demand for a wide variety of plants. Its average import price, however, was volatile, more than doubling from 2015 to 2022.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown - Imports

Export volumes for the main category declined despite value growth

Paradoxically, the export quantity of the main "live plants" sub-category (CN 060290) was 16.6% lower in 2025 than in 2015, even as its export value grew by 45.9%. This confirms that the value increase was almost entirely due to higher unit prices (+75.2% over the period). This trend towards higher-value exports is also visible in other sub-categories like roses (CN 060240) and unrooted cuttings (CN 060210).

Source: Product Segment Breakdown - Exports

3. Geographical Reorientation and Increased Volatility

The geographic pattern of trade underwent a dramatic transformation, marked by the collapse of exports to certain partners, the rise of new ones, and periods of significant price volatility linked to specific country pairs.

Exports shifted away from Russia and Belarus towards the UK and Switzerland

The most dramatic change was the near-total collapse of exports to the Russian Federation (-87.8%) and Belarus (-83.8%), likely reflecting geopolitical factors and sanctions. In contrast, exports to the United Kingdom grew by 85.9% and to Switzerland by 26.6%. The UK became by far the EU's largest single export market, absorbing over €858 million in 2025.

Source: General Overview - Top Partners by Value

Import sourcing diversified, with Morocco and Serbia emerging as major suppliers

On the import side, the EU's sourcing became more diversified (HHI for import value fell by 11.8%). While China remained the top supplier (+113.7% in value), growth from Morocco (+317.1%) and Serbia (+604.5%) was exceptionally strong. These countries, along with Türkiye (+147.5%), significantly increased their share, possibly leveraging geographical proximity and evolving supply chains.

Specific trade relationships experienced pronounced price shocks

The volatility analysis identified several extreme price events. A major price shock for exports to Norway in 2018 (+99.2% price shift) and for imports from Costa Rica in 2022 (+127.1% price shift) stand out. Such volatility in bilateral flows suggests susceptibility to specific supply chain disruptions, currency swings, or sudden changes in demand for particular plant varieties.

Source: Volatility & Shocks - Top Shock Events

Conclusion

The EU's live plant trade between 2015 and 2025 was a story of resilience and strategic evolution. The bloc successfully expanded its trade surplus, driven by an ability to command higher prices for its exports, even as volumes faced pressure. Internally, the market structure shifted, with imports growing rapidly in volume to meet demand, particularly in the broad category of live plants.

The most profound change, however, was geographical. The EU's export profile was fundamentally reshaped by geopolitical events, leading to a decisive pivot towards stable markets like the UK and Switzerland. Concurrently, import sourcing diversified, reducing dependency on any single third country. While the market demonstrated strong overall growth, underlying volatility in specific bilateral trade relationships underscores the ongoing challenges of managing complex, globalised horticultural supply chains.