Market evolution: Other live plants (CN 060290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN code 060290 — a residual category covering live plants (including their roots) and mushroom spawn, excluding bulbs, tubers, cuttings, fruit/nut trees, rhododendrons, azaleas, and roses. The product scope is broad, bundling subcategories ranging from mushroom spawn to indoor flowering plants, outdoor trees, and vegetable seedlings.

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of this product group. Total export value rose from approximately €1.16 billion in 2015 to €1.69 billion in 2025 (+45.9%), while imports grew from €155 million to €273 million (+76.5%). The resulting trade surplus widened from just over €1.0 billion to nearly €1.4 billion. These headline figures, however, mask significant structural shifts in trade partners, product composition, and pricing dynamics that deserve closer examination.

The analysis draws on EU trade data with non-EU countries at annual frequency. A full overview of the product's trade profile is available on the Trade Dashboard — Overview.

1. Sustained Value Growth Driven Primarily by Price Appreciation

1.1 Export value outpaced volume growth substantially

The EU's export value for CN 060290 grew by 45.9% over the period, rising from €1,159 million in 2015 to €1,691 million in 2025, peaking at €1,774 million in 2022. Export volumes, however, grew only 7.5% (from 675,689 tonnes to 726,666 tonnes). This divergence implies that the vast majority of export value growth was driven by rising unit values: the average export price increased from €1,715 per tonne in 2015 to €2,327 per tonne in 2025 (+35.6%). This price trajectory reflects a mix of factors — inflationary pressures, a possible shift toward higher-value product segments, and tighter supply conditions — and is consistent across most subcategories.

1.2 Imports grew even faster, combining volume and price increases

Imports of CN 060290 into the EU expanded from €155 million (2015) to €273 million (2025), a gain of 76.5%. Unlike exports, this growth was supported by both higher volumes (from 78,079 to 108,418 tonnes, +38.9%) and higher prices (from €1,980 to €2,517 per tonne, +27.1%). The acceleration of import growth relative to exports partly reflects rising demand for specific product segments — notably indoor rooted cuttings and mushroom spawn — sourced from an expanding set of supplier countries.

1.3 The trade surplus widened but export concentration increased

The EU's trade surplus in live plants grew from €1,004 million to €1,418 million (+41.2%). However, this growing surplus came alongside a notable rise in export market concentration. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export values increased from 2,009 in 2015 to 2,636 in 2025 (+31.2%), indicating a growing reliance on a smaller number of destination markets. By contrast, the import HHI remained low and stable (767 to 777), reflecting a broadly diversified supplier base. The divergence is significant: while the EU sources its imports from many countries, it sells its exports increasingly to a narrow set of partners.

Full trade and concentration data can be explored on the Trade Dashboard — Concentration.

2. A Shifting Partner Landscape: The UK Dominance, the Russian Decline, and the Rise of New Suppliers

2.1 The United Kingdom absorbed nearly half of EU exports by 2025

The most striking feature of the EU's export structure is the overwhelming importance of the United Kingdom. From €430 million in 2015, exports to the UK nearly doubled to reach €800 million in 2025 (+86.0%), accounting for roughly 47% of all EU exports of CN 060290. Switzerland remained the second-largest market at €302 million (+25.0%), followed by Norway (€81 million, −12.4%). The UK's share grew despite — or perhaps partly because of — Brexit, which created new phytosanitary and customs requirements that may have redirected trade flows or incentivised larger shipments in certain years.

2.2 Exports to Russia collapsed; Belarus and Ukraine saw divergent paths

Exports to the Russian Federation fell from €108 million in 2015 to €52 million in 2025 (−51.6%), with much of the decline occurring after 2021 amid geopolitical tensions and sanctions. Ukraine, despite the ongoing conflict following Russia's 2022 invasion, saw EU exports rise from €15 million to €21 million (+41.8%). Belarus, meanwhile, experienced a strong increase from €11 million to €32 million (+183.2%), peaking at €37 million in 2022. These contrasting trajectories highlight how geopolitical factors reshaped trade flows in this otherwise commercially-driven market.

2.3 Import sources diversified with rapid growth from Türkiye, Morocco, and North Macedonia

On the import side, the most dramatic changes involved emerging suppliers. Türkiye's exports to the EU surged from €4 million to €22 million (+415.8%), North Macedonia grew from €2.5 million to €12 million (+405.8%), and Morocco rose from €5 million to €19 million (+318.2%). China also more than doubled its share, from €20 million to €53 million (+164.0%), cementing its position as the EU's top import partner for this product group. By contrast, the United Kingdom's exports to the EU fell from €21 million to €15 million (−28.1%), reversing the pre-Brexit flow.

The surge in imports from Mediterranean and Balkan countries likely reflects competitive advantages in outdoor trees, shrubs, and nursery products, combined with proximity to major EU consumption markets and favourable climatic conditions.

Detailed partner data is available on the Trade Dashboard — Partners.

2.4 The Netherlands dominates EU exports; southern and eastern members saw divergent trends

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands was by far the largest exporter, growing from €642 million to €1,113 million (+73.5%) and accounting for roughly two-thirds of all EU exports by 2025. This reflects the Netherlands' central role as a global hub for horticultural trade. Italy (€136 million, +28.7%), Spain (€85 million, +67.1%), and Germany (€124 million, +3.9%) followed at a considerable distance. Notably, Lithuania, which exported €40 million in 2015, saw its exports collapse to near zero by 2025 (−99.8%), while Denmark also declined (€50 million to €34 million, −32.3%).

On the import side, the Netherlands also led (€139 million, +59.0%), followed by Spain (€31 million, +165.5%), Germany (€30 million, +178.9%), and Italy (€23 million, +207.5%). The faster import growth in southern EU members may reflect expanding domestic horticultural and landscaping sectors.

The specialisation data confirms the Netherlands' dominant comparative advantage in this product group, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of 0.61 in 2025 — far ahead of Denmark (0.34) and Italy (0.10). Full specialisation data is available on the Trade Dashboard — Specialisation.

3. Divergent Product-Segment Dynamics: Indoor Cuttings, Outdoor Plants, and Mushroom Spawn

3.1 Indoor rooted cuttings (06029070) became the largest import segment by value

Among import subcategories, indoor rooted cuttings and young plants (CN 06029070) emerged as the dominant segment by value, growing from €55 million in 2015 to €108 million in 2025. However, this growth was entirely price-driven: import volumes actually fell from 22,086 tonnes to 11,414 tonnes (−48.3%), while unit values surged from €2,506 per tonne to €9,450 per tonne. This sharp price appreciation suggests a shift toward higher-value varieties, increased phytosanitary compliance costs, or supply constraints in key source countries.

Live indoor plants and cacti (06029099) remained the second-largest import category at €65 million, with volumes rising from 24,000 to 38,000 tonnes and prices roughly stable. Outdoor plants (06029050) tripled in value from €16 million to €43 million, supported by both volume growth (5,000 to 13,000 tonnes) and price increases.

3.2 Mushroom spawn (06029010) showed strong and consistent volume growth in imports

Mushroom spawn imports grew particularly steadily, from 7,491 tonnes (€3.6 million) in 2015 to 25,470 tonnes (€13.2 million) in 2025. The 240% increase in volume at relatively stable unit values (around €480–520 per tonne) points to a genuine expansion of mushroom production capacity in the EU and a growing reliance on imported spawn, particularly from China. This is one of the few segments where volume growth was the primary driver of value gains.

3.3 Outdoor plants (06029050) and outdoor trees (06029048, 06029047) dominated exports

On the export side, live outdoor plants (06029050) were the largest single segment, doubling from €201 million to €408 million, driven by both rising volumes (114,000 to 155,000 tonnes) and unit values (€1,763 to €2,624 per tonne). Outdoor deciduous trees and shrubs (06029048) reached €253 million in 2025, while conifer and evergreen plants (06029047) grew from €68 million (2016) to €161 million, more than doubling in value. Indoor flowering plants (06029091) and indoor plants/cacti (06029099) together accounted for over €430 million in exports, though the former showed a slight declining trend (€187 million to €172 million) while the latter peaked and then moderated.

*Data for 06029047 and 06029048 begins in 2016.

3.4 Price shocks in 2018 and 2022 disrupted specific trade corridors

The volatility analysis reveals several notable price shock events. In 2018, EU exports to Norway experienced a sharp price shock (abnormality score 549.5, with unit values shifting +107.2%), affecting a corridor that represented 7.8% of total export value. The same year, exports to Türkiye saw an extreme price spike (abnormality 91.1, shift +495.9%), though from a smaller base. In 2022, imports from Costa Rica — the EU's second-largest supplier — experienced a significant price shock (abnormality 33.9, shift +134.5%), affecting 17.4% of import value.

These shocks are likely related to seasonal weather events, phytosanitary disruptions, or logistical bottlenecks rather than long-term structural changes, as prices in subsequent years partially normalised. The shock data can be explored further on the Trade Dashboard — Supply Shocks.

Conclusion

The EU trade in other live plants (CN 060290) over 2015–2025 tells a story of a structurally strong export sector underpinned by rising unit values and dominated by the Netherlands as a global horticultural hub. The UK's position as the EU's primary export market consolidated even as post-Brexit trade frictions emerged, while exports to Russia halved amid geopolitical disruption. On the import side, the EU diversified its supplier base, with Türkiye, Morocco, and North Macedonia emerging as fast-growing sources alongside a more than doubling of Chinese shipments.

The most notable structural shift is the growing role of price appreciation — rather than volume expansion — as the primary driver of value growth. Across both imports and exports, unit values rose significantly, particularly for indoor rooted cuttings and outdoor ornamental plants. This trend may reflect genuine premiumisation in the horticultural sector, but also rising production and compliance costs that are being passed through the value chain.

Looking ahead, the key risks for this market include the continued concentration of EU exports on the UK market (HHI rising to 2,636), potential phytosanitary and regulatory barriers, and the sensitivity of live-plant trade to logistical disruptions — as demonstrated by the price shocks observed in 2018 and 2022. The expanding import base, while diversifying supply, also raises questions about the EU's long-term competitiveness in certain product segments where emerging suppliers are gaining market share rapidly.