Market evolution: Dormant bulbs (CN 060110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union concerning dormant bulbs, tubers, and similar plants (Customs Code 060110) from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU has solidified its position as a major net exporter in this global market. The period was characterized by a fundamental shift: while traded volumes largely stagnated or declined, the total value of trade expanded dramatically, driven by significant price appreciation. Concurrently, the EU's trading landscape underwent a substantial geographic reorientation, with a pivot towards Asian and North American markets and a near-total collapse in exports to Russia. The market structure remains highly concentrated, with the Netherlands serving as the indispensable hub for both EU imports and exports.

1. A Price-Driven Market: Rising Values Amidst Volume Stagnation

The most defining trend of the 2015-2025 period is the strong growth in the value of EU trade, which occurred despite a general weakness or decline in physical volumes. This indicates a market where unit prices have increased substantially, reshaping the economic profile of the sector.

Export value surged while volumes contracted

EU exports of dormant bulbs saw their value increase by 58.0% from €538.3 million in 2015 to €850.8 million in 2025. However, this growth was not achieved by shipping more product. Over the same period, export volume decreased by 10.9%, falling from 193,009 tonnes to 172,017 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a 77.3% rise in the average export price, which climbed from €2,789 per tonne to €4,946 per tonne (General Overview: trade).

Import dynamics mirrored the export trend

The import side followed a similar pattern. Import value grew by 58.2% to €64.6 million, while import volumes fell by 19.8% to 20,443 tonnes. The average import price nearly doubled (+97.3%), reaching €3,159 per tonne by 2025. This price escalation suggests increased costs of sourcing or a shift towards higher-value specialty bulbs in the import mix.

Price increases were broad-based across product segments

This price inflation is visible across the main sub-categories. For EU exports, the price per tonne for tulip bulbs (CN 06011030) increased from €2,834 in 2015 to €5,611 in 2025 (+98%). For narcissi bulbs (CN 06011020), the price per tonne more than doubled, from €1,672 to €3,503. The same holds for imports, where prices for tulip and narcissi bulbs also saw significant increases (Product Segment Breakdown: exports & imports).

2. Geographic Realignment: A Pivot Away from Traditional and Contested Markets

The ten-year period witnessed a dramatic reordering of the EU's primary trading partners, influenced by both market growth opportunities and geopolitical shocks.

Exports shifted decisively towards China and the United Kingdom

The United States remained the EU's largest single export destination, with value growing from €109.7 million to €146.2 million. However, the most dramatic growth occurred elsewhere. Exports to China surged by 124.0% to €163.6 million, making it the top market by value in 2025. Similarly, exports to the United Kingdom grew by 149.5% to €134.1 million. Canada also saw its import from the EU more than double (General Overview: top partners by value - exports).

Exports to the Russian Federation collapsed

In stark contrast, exports to Russia fell by 98.5%, from €33.4 million in 2015 to just €0.5 million in 2025. The data indicates the sharpest decline occurred around 2024, representing a near-total supply shock. This volatility is quantified in the dataset, which identifies it as the most severe supply shock event for EU exports in the period, with a -99.6% shift (Volatility & Shocks: top shock events).

The import source structure also evolved

On the import side, the EU has become more reliant on Southern Hemisphere suppliers for counter-seasonal production. Imports from Chile and Peru grew by 125.8% and 307.1% respectively, while imports from traditional sources like Brazil and South Africa declined. The United Kingdom also became a more significant source of imports for the EU, with value rising by 93.6% (General Overview: top partners by value - imports).

3. A Concentrated and Specialized Market Structure

The EU's trade in dormant bulbs is characterized by a high degree of concentration, both in terms of internal EU specialization and external market focus.

The Netherlands is the undisputed central hub

The analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) confirms the Netherlands' overwhelming specialization in this product category, with an RCA value of 6.15 in 2025. This is reflected in its trade flows: Dutch exporters accounted for over €815 million (96%) of the EU's total exports of €850.8 million. Similarly, the Netherlands was the source of €58.1 million, or 90%, of the EU's total imports of €64.6 million. This dual role highlights the Netherlands' position as the global marketplace for bulbs, re-exporting not only domestically produced bulbs but also imported ones (Market Structure: most specialised reporters).

Export concentration increased, while import sources diversified slightly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value, a measure of concentration, rose from 927 in 2015 to 1,059 in 2025, indicating that export markets became more concentrated around a few key partners like the US, China, and the UK. For imports, the HHI based on value increased from 1,017 to 1,400, signifying growing concentration on fewer, larger suppliers, aligning with the rise of Chile and Peru (Market Structure: concentration HHI).

EU internal production is highly localized

Specialization data shows that only a few EU member states have a significant production role. Besides the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, and Italy show notable, though far smaller, export activity. Many other member states, particularly in the south and east, show minimal specialization, acting primarily as consumers rather than producers in the global bulb trade (Market Structure: least specialised reporters).

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 decade, the EU dormant bulb market transformed into a higher-value, more geographically focused, and structurally concentrated industry. Growth was driven by price increases rather than volume expansion, suggesting a shift towards premium products or inflationary pressures. Geopolitical and market forces caused a major trade reorientation away from Russia and towards dynamic markets in Asia and North America. Through this evolution, the Netherlands has reinforced its central, almost singular, role as the core of the EU's global bulb trade network, making the sector's fortunes highly dependent on both Dutch horticultural capacity and the economic health of its key overseas customers.