Market evolution: Meat and edible offal (CN 02) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's external trade in meat and edible meat offal (customs code 02) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a major global player in this sector, both as a large exporter and a significant importer. Over the last decade, the market has been characterised by strong price-driven value growth, a structural trade surplus, evolving trade partnerships, and significant price shocks. This analysis examines the key dynamics of export growth, the diversification and risks in the partner landscape, and the internal structure that underpins the EU's competitive position. For the scope and product definitions, see the product overview.
1. The EU as a Dominant Net Exporter with Strong Price-Driven Value Growth
The EU maintained a consistent trade surplus throughout the period, driven by robust export performance. The value of extra-EU exports grew substantially, while the physical volumes traded were more stable, indicating that rising unit prices were the primary engine of value growth.
The persistent trade surplus and its expansion
The EU has consistently exported more meat in value terms than it imported. The trade balance (exports minus imports) started at €8.21 billion in 2015 and reached €10.64 billion in 2025, an increase of 29.6%. This surplus is a testament to the competitiveness and scale of the EU's meat sector. The general trade overview highlights this consistent positive balance.
Export value growth decoupled from volume trends
A key feature of the decade is the divergence between export value and quantity. While the value of extra-EU meat exports rose by 32.8% (from €13.00 billion to €17.26 billion), the net mass exported actually declined by 4.0% (from 6.27 million tonnes to 6.02 million tonnes). This indicates a strong increase in export unit prices, which rose by 38.3% over the period. The following table summarises this trend:
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (€) | 12,997,243,002 | 17,258,061,581 | +32.8% |
| Export Quantity (t) | 6,267,382 | 6,017,314 | -4.0% |
| Export Price (€/t) | 2,074 | 2,868 | +38.3% |
This dynamic is mirrored on the import side, where value growth (+38.2%) also outpaced a marginal decline in volume (-4.3%), driven by a steeper 44.4% increase in import prices.
The price surge of the 2020s
The most significant price acceleration occurred after 2020, culminating in 2022–2025. Both export and import unit prices reached their peak in 2025, with the average export price at €2,868/t and the average import price at €5,560/t. This period of elevated prices reflects broader global inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions that impacted agricultural commodities worldwide.
2. Evolving and Volatile Trade Partnerships with Geographical Diversification
The EU's trade network for meat is geographically diverse but underwent notable shifts in the last decade, with new partners gaining prominence and traditional relationships experiencing volatility. The partner analysis provides the detailed overview.
The shifting composition of major import suppliers
The United Kingdom remains the EU's largest external supplier of meat, with imports valued at €1.77 billion in 2025 (+20.3% since 2015). However, the most dramatic growth was seen from other partners:
- Ukraine emerged as a crucial supplier, with import value soaring by 601.8% from €65.4 million to €459.2 million, becoming the third-largest partner.
- Argentina (+88.4%) and Uruguay (+64.1%) also saw very strong growth, solidifying South America's role in the EU's import basket.
- Brazil remained a key supplier at €1.15 billion, though its share has seen some fluctuation.
This diversification away from a heavy reliance on the UK is also reflected in the declining concentration index for imports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index fell from 1,716 to 1,462).
The dominant but changing export destination landscape
The United Kingdom is by far the EU's largest export market, absorbing €5.65 billion worth of meat in 2025. The most notable developments elsewhere were:
- China became the second-largest market by value (€1.99 billion), though its share is volatile, having peaked at €7.4 billion in 2020 before falling back.
- The Philippines saw explosive export growth (+217.4%), becoming the third-largest market.
- Hong Kong experienced a stark decline (-66.2%), illustrating market volatility.
Systematic price shocks in 2022 affecting key suppliers
A critical event in the period was the series of price shocks detected in 2022. For major partners, import prices surged dramatically:
| Partner | Shock Type | Shift (%) | Abnormality Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | Price | +31.1% | 218.3 |
| Brazil | Price | +39.9% | 75.4 |
| Thailand | Price | +61.1% | 9.3 |
These shocks, occurring amid global disruptions, significantly increased the cost of meat imports for the EU that year.
3. A Resilient Internal Production Base Underpinning External Trade
The EU's strong export performance is built on a large and growing domestic production base, with significant specialisation in several Member States. This internal strength provides the foundation for its trade activities.
Significant growth in EU meat production
EU production of meat (CN 02) grew strongly over the period. In volume terms, production increased by 45.3% (from 35.5 million tonnes in 2015 to 51.6 million tonnes in 2025). More impressively, the value of production more than doubled (+113.4%), rising from €75.4 billion to €160.9 billion. This production growth underpins the capacity for exports.
Specialised production hubs drive export competitiveness
Not all EU states are equally specialised in meat production for export. The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 identifies the core producers:
| Country | RSCA | Share of EU Production | Share of EU Total Exports |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | 0.400 | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Poland | 0.400 | 15.5% | 6.6% |
| Spain | 0.390 | 13.2% | 5.8% |
| Ireland | 0.329 | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Netherlands | 0.153 | 19.8% | 14.5% |
Spain and Poland stand out for having both high production shares and strong specialisation indices. Spain was also the EU Member State with the highest absolute increase in export value (+176.9% to €4.10 billion), confirming its role as a major export engine.
Pork and poultry dominate the product mix
The segment breakdown reveals the composition of trade. For exports, the top categories by value in 2025 were:
- 0203 (Swine meat): €6.04 billion
- 0207 (Poultry meat): €3.64 billion
- 0201 (Fresh bovine meat): €2.58 billion
For imports, the top categories were:
- 0201 (Fresh bovine meat): €2.25 billion
- 0204 (Sheep/goat meat): €1.50 billion
- 0207 (Poultry meat): €0.90 billion
This shows the EU is a major net exporter of pork and poultry, while it is a significant importer of bovine and sheep meat, meeting domestic demand through a combination of internal production and external sourcing.
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU's meat trade sector demonstrated robustness and adaptability. It consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with value growth driven decisively by rising global prices rather than volume expansion. The trade network showed strategic diversification, particularly increasing reliance on suppliers like Ukraine and South America, while simultaneously facing acute price volatility, as seen in the 2022 shocks. This external performance is firmly supported by a strong, growing, and specialised domestic production base, particularly in Member States like Spain, Poland, and the Netherlands. While the EU remains structurally self-reliant in key meat categories, the increasing trade intensity of its sector highlights its deep integration into—and vulnerability to—global market dynamics.