Market evolution: Pig and poultry fat (CN 0209) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade evolution of EU-27 for product CN 0209 – which encompasses pig fat (subheading 020910) and poultry fat (subheading 020990), fresh, chilled, frozen, or similarly preserved – between 2015 and 2025. Over this decade, the EU's trade position underwent a fundamental transformation. The Union solidified its role as a dominant global exporter, characterized by surging export values driven by price increases, while its import needs collapsed. Key shifts include the dramatic reorientation of export destinations away from China towards Southeast Asia, a significant increase in domestic production value, and a notable reduction in import concentration. The period was also marked by significant price volatility and specific supply shocks that reshaped trade flows.

1. From Net Exporter to Export Powerhouse: Value Growth Amidst Volume Stability

The EU's trade in pig and poultry fat underwent a clear structural shift over the 2015–2025 period, moving from a large positive trade balance to an even larger one, driven overwhelmingly by rising export prices rather than increased volumes.

• Explosive Export Value Growth: The total value of EU exports grew by 76.4% over the period, rising from €131.2 million in 2015 to €231.5 million in 2025. This growth was not linear; export value peaked at €335.9 million in 2020 before correcting.
• Stagnant Export Volumes: In contrast, the physical quantity exported actually decreased by 5.0%, moving from 222,963 tonnes in 2015 to 211,888 tonnes in 2025. The volume peaked at 296,045 tonnes in 2020.
• The Price Driver: The disconnect between value and volume is explained by a 85.7% increase in the average export price, which climbed from €588 per tonne in 2015 to €1,092 per tonne in 2025. Prices reached a high of €1,416 per tonne in 2023.
• Collapse of Imports: EU imports collapsed across all metrics. Import value fell by 63.3% and quantity plummeted by 87.7%, indicating a near-total withdrawal from the global market as a buyer. Import prices also surged by 199.7%, but from a much lower base.
• Strengthened Trade Balance: As a result, the EU's trade balance in this sector improved by 81.1%, from a surplus of €127 million in 2015 to €230 million in 2025, underscoring the sector's enhanced net-export status.

Source: General Overview

2. A Decade of Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Internal Market Consolidation

The period was defined by a dramatic reconfiguration of the EU's trade partners and a consolidation of its internal production and export capabilities.

• Export Partners: The Great Pivot from China to Southeast Asia:

  • The most significant shift was the decline of China as the EU's top export market. China's share of EU export value fell from €21.6 million (2015) to €4.0 million (2025), a drop of 81.4%.
  • Conversely, exports to the Philippines grew by 322.5% to €82.0 million, and to Viet Nam by an astonishing 5,334.9% to €33.7 million. The United Kingdom also remained a major and growing market, with exports increasing by 142.4%.

• Import Partners: A Domestic Shift:

  • Imports were historically dominated by the United Kingdom, whose supplied value fell by 81.6% from €3.6 million to €0.7 million.
  • Norway and the Philippines grew as suppliers, but from a very low base. The collapse in total import volume means these shifts represent minor flows in an increasingly negligible import market.

• Internal Market Specialization and Growth:

  • EU production value surged by 252.6% (from €323 million to €1.14 billion), far outpacing the 8.4% growth in production quantity, mirroring the price inflation seen in trade data.
  • Specialization data for 2025 reveals clear national champions: Spain (RSCA: 0.49) and Poland (RSCA: 0.22) are the most specialized exporters, together accounting for over 27% of EU production volume. In contrast, Ireland (RSCA: -0.84) shows very low export specialization.
  • The concentration of import sources (HHI) fell by 61.4%, indicating a diversification away from a few key partners. Conversely, export concentration rose by 43.5%, suggesting export growth was channeled through a more focused set of partners.

Source: Top Partners by Value, Market Structure

3. Navigating Volatility: Price Shocks and Evolving Vulnerabilities

The EU's strengthened trade position was tested by significant price volatility and structural shocks, while its strategic autonomy in this sector markedly improved.

• Significant Price Shocks in Key Markets:

  • The analysis detects major price shocks in exports, most notably to China in 2019, where an abnormal price increase of 18.3 standard deviations coincided with an 85.4% price shift. This shock accounted for 33.9% of the total export value that year, reflecting the massive scale and volatility of the China trade at its peak.
  • A smaller but significant price shock was also detected for exports to Viet Nam in the same year.

• Persistent Volatility in Trade Flows:

  • Coefficient of Variation (CV) analysis shows that some trade relationships remain highly volatile. For instance, EU import flows from China (CV: 1.23) and Iceland (CV: 1.73) were extremely unstable, while export flows to Georgia (CV: 1.00) and China (CV: 1.03) also showed high variability.

• Reduced Import Vulnerability:

  • The EU's net import reliance (a measure of dependency on external supplies) improved dramatically, becoming 54.7% less negative. This means the Union moved from being a strong net exporter to being an even stronger and more self-reliant one in this sector.
  • Trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production) and export propensity (export share of production) both declined by over 30%, indicating that while the EU trades less as a proportion of its output, it does so from a position of expanded production capacity.

• Product Segment Dynamics:

  • Pig fat (020910) overwhelmingly dominates both trade and production. Its export price nearly doubled from €582/t (2015) to €1,088/t (2025).
  • Poultry fat (020990) has much smaller volumes but commands a significantly higher price per tonne (€2,528/t in 2025 vs €1,088/t for pig fat), reflecting its different market applications.

Source: Volatility & Shocks, Autonomy & Vulnerability

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for pig and poultry fat (CN 0209) has transformed. The Union has evolved into a dominant, high-value exporter, with its trade surplus growing substantially. This was achieved not through expanding export volumes, which slightly decreased, but through a fundamental repricing of its exports (+85.7%). Concurrently, the EU drastically reduced its import dependency, with import quantities collapsing by 87.7%.

The market's geography was redrawn, with exports pivoting sharply away from China towards the Philippines and Vietnam. Domestically, production value exploded, led by specialized member states like Spain and Poland, while the import market diversified away from its historical dependence on the United Kingdom. Despite encountering significant price shocks, particularly in the 2019 China trade, the sector's overall strategic resilience improved, as shown by the enhanced net import reliance position. The data paints a picture of a European agri-food sector that capitalized on global demand shifts and price dynamics to consolidate its export strength and reduce external vulnerabilities.