Market evolution: Horse meat (CN 0205) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in horse meat (Combined Nomenclature code 0205 — Meat of horses, asses, mules or hinnies, fresh, chilled or frozen) over the period 2015–2025. Horse meat is a niche product within the broader meat and edible meat offal category, with limited but culturally significant demand in several EU Member States. The data reveals a market undergoing profound structural contraction: volumes traded have fallen sharply, yet unit prices have risen substantially, pointing to a shift toward higher-value, lower-volume trade. At the same time, the EU's external trade relationships have consolidated around fewer, more specialised partners. This report examines three principal dynamics — the volume-price divergence, the geographic concentration of trade, and the interplay between declining domestic production and the EU's evolving role on world markets.

1. A Shrinking Volume Market Underpinned by Surging Unit Prices

The most striking feature of EU horse meat trade over the decade is the simultaneous collapse of traded volumes and the sharp increase in unit prices, both on the import and export side.

Import volumes nearly halved while export volumes fell by more than two thirds

EU imports of horse meat declined from 21,832 tonnes in 2015 to 11,624 tonnes in 2025 (−46.8%). The contraction was not linear: volumes peaked at 22,531 tonnes around 2016–2017 before entering a sustained decline. Exports fell even more dramatically, from 3,877 tonnes to just 1,188 tonnes (−69.4%), with the steepest drop occurring after 2019.

Unit price increases more than compensated for export volume losses in proportional terms

Export unit prices rose by 153.6% over the period — from €4,899/t to €12,421/t — the most dramatic price movement in the dataset. This far outpaced the 29.2% rise in import prices (from €3,828/t to €4,945/t). The divergence between export and import prices has widened considerably, with EU exports now commanding a price roughly 2.5 times that of imports, up from near parity in 2015. This suggests that the EU increasingly serves as a processor and re-exporter of high-quality, premium-positioned horse meat — likely chilled, portioned, or otherwise value-added product destined for demanding markets such as Switzerland and Japan.

The trade deficit narrowed significantly

The EU's trade deficit in horse meat fell from €64.6 million in 2015 to €42.7 million in 2025, a reduction of 33.8%. The deficit reached its narrowest point at €37.8 million (during the intermediate years), reflecting both the faster decline of import values relative to export values and the premiumisation of EU exports. Despite this improvement, the EU remains a structurally deficit market, consistent with insufficient domestic production to meet internal demand.

2. Increasing Geographic Concentration Around South American Suppliers

The period 2015–2025 saw a marked consolidation of trade partners, both on the import and export sides. Several formerly significant suppliers exited the market almost entirely, while Argentina and Uruguay solidified their dominance.

Argentina and Uruguay became the near-exclusive extra-EU suppliers

Among top import partners by value, Argentina's share rose to become the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, with imports worth €39.3 million in 2025 (up 21.7% from 2015). Uruguay maintained its position as the second-largest supplier at €15.5 million (+17.9%). Together, these two South American origins now account for the vast majority of extra-EU horse meat imports.

Former major suppliers — Canada, Brazil, Australia — virtually disappeared

The most dramatic development on the import side is the near-total withdrawal of Canada, Brazil, and Australia from EU supply. Canadian imports collapsed from €18.9 million to virtually zero (−99.9%), Brazilian imports fell from €5.5 million to €166,000 (−97.0%), and Australian imports declined from €2.4 million to €164,000 (−93.2%). These exits are likely linked to a combination of factors including tightening EU sanitary and traceability requirements (notably Regulation (EU) 2017/625 on official controls), reputational crises following the 2013 horse meat adulteration scandal, and shifts in those countries' own equine industries. The result was a sharp rise in import concentration: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value more than doubled, from 2,371 to 5,403 (+127.8%), moving from a moderately concentrated to a highly concentrated market structure.

EU exports consolidated around Switzerland, with several Asian markets receding

On the export side, Switzerland remained the dominant destination throughout the period, absorbing €12.2 million in 2025 (−4.8% from 2015), reflecting the well-established Swiss appetite for horse meat. Japan was the second-largest market at €2.6 million (+3.1%). Several other destinations contracted sharply:

Kazakhstan and Viet Nam, which together absorbed over €3 million in EU horse meat exports in 2015, have nearly vanished as destinations. The United Kingdom, post-Brexit, also dropped sharply from €396,000 to €14,509. Export concentration (HHI by value) rose from 4,861 to 7,107 (+46.2%).

Price volatility was highest for secondary and emerging partners

Coefficient of variation (CV) analysis of partner-level trade flows confirms that the largest partners — Argentina (CV 0.11) and Uruguay (CV 0.17) on the import side, Switzerland (CV 0.19) on the export side — exhibited the lowest volatility, providing predictable trade flows. Secondary partners such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia showed very high volatility (CV > 0.96), consistent with erratic, on-and-off trade relationships. A notable price shock was detected for Argentine imports in 2022, with an abnormality score of 4.8 and a 17% price shift, coinciding with global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures.

3. Collapsing Domestic Production Reshapes the EU's Market Position

The EU's internal horse meat production has contracted dramatically, altering the bloc's structural position from a net-importing but domestically supplied market toward one with declining self-sufficiency yet growing export orientation.

EU horse meat production fell by 60% in volume and 42% in value

According to production data, EU production of horse meat dropped from 51.8 million kg to 20.8 million kg (−59.9%) in quantity, and from €211.7 million to €123.0 million (−41.9%) in value. Production value fell less steeply than volume, indicating rising domestic unit prices — consistent with the general price inflation observed across trade flows. The production decline reflects broader trends: the contraction of equine farming in Europe, shifting dietary preferences, and the disappearance of horse slaughter capacity in some Member States.

Romania and Poland emerged as the EU's specialised producers

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that Romania (RSCA 0.71, RCA 6.01) and Poland (RSCA 0.54, RCA 3.35) are the most specialised EU Member States in horse meat. Romania's production share in its total meat output stands at 10.0%, and Poland's at 22.2% — a remarkably high share suggesting that Poland retains a significant niche equine processing sector. Belgium (RSCA 0.48) and Spain (RSCA 0.42) also show meaningful specialisation. By contrast, large economies such as Germany (RSCA −0.99), France (not listed among specialised producers), and Ireland (RSCA −1.00) have negligible horse meat specialisation.

The EU's net import reliance declined but export propensity surged

The net import reliance — the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — fell from 37.6% in 2015 to 26.5% in 2025 (−29.5%). This might seem counterintuitive given that both production and imports declined, but it reflects the fact that imports declined proportionally less than the combined contraction of production and domestic demand.

The most remarkable structural shift, however, is the export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — which surged from 1.0% to 13.4% (+1,280.5%). This dramatic increase indicates that while EU production collapsed, an increasing share of what is produced is being channelled to high-value export markets (principally Switzerland and Japan) rather than sold domestically. This is consistent with the premiumisation dynamic observed in the price data: the EU is producing less horse meat overall, but what it does produce commands premium prices on international markets.

The Netherlands and France remain the main EU gateways for horse meat trade

Among EU Member States acting as importers, the Netherlands (€28.6 million in 2025) is the largest entry point, followed by Belgium (€12.1 million, though down 55% from 2015), Italy (€7.8 million), and France (€8.8 million). Luxembourg's imports collapsed from €7.4 million to virtually zero (−99.7%), likely reflecting a restructuring of trade flows previously routed through the country. On the export side, France (€6.4 million), Belgium (€3.6 million), and Italy (€3.3 million) are the principal exporting Member States, with Poland rising notably from €513,000 to €1.1 million (+123.4%).

Conclusion

The EU horse meat market (CN 0205) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade volumes have contracted sharply — imports by nearly half, exports by nearly two-thirds — driven by collapsing domestic production, evolving consumer preferences, and tighter regulatory frameworks. Yet this volume decline has been accompanied by a striking price premiumisation: export unit prices more than doubled, and the EU's export propensity surged from 1% to over 13% of production.

Geographically, the market has consolidated around a small number of highly specialised partners. Argentina and Uruguay now dominate extra-EU imports, having absorbed the market share vacated by Canada, Brazil, and Australia. On the export side, Switzerland remains the anchor destination, with Japan as a stable secondary market. This concentration, while providing trade predictability with key partners, also heightens supply-chain vulnerability — a concern underscored by the Argentine price shock detected in 2022.

Looking ahead, the EU horse meat market appears set to remain a niche but commercially distinct segment, characterised by low volumes, high unit values, and dependence on a narrow geographic base. Policy attention may be warranted on two fronts: monitoring supply concentration risk given the near-total reliance on South American imports, and supporting the viability of specialised EU producers — particularly in Romania, Poland, and Belgium — who increasingly orient their output toward premium export markets.