Market evolution: Poultry meat (CN 0207) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union trade in poultry meat (Combined Nomenclature code 0207) with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers meat and edible offal of chickens, turkeys, ducks, geese, and guinea fowls — fresh, chilled, or frozen. The analysis draws on trade value (EUR), volume (tonnes), unit prices, partner concentration, and production data to identify the main structural dynamics shaping the EU's position in global poultry trade. Despite significant shifts in partner geography, pricing, and internal EU specialisation, the EU has consistently maintained a net exporter status throughout the period. The data reveals a market that has been transformed more by price inflation and geographic reorientation than by volume growth.

For full interactive data, see the trade overview dashboard.

1. A Volume-Stagnant but Value-Surging Market

Export value grew strongly despite declining volumes

The most striking aggregate finding is the divergence between trade volumes and trade values. Over the 2015–2025 period, EU poultry exports to non-EU countries fell by 5.7% in volume (from 1,753,314 tonnes to 1,652,956 tonnes), yet their value rose by 26.6% (from €2.87 billion to €3.64 billion). This gap is entirely explained by price increases: the average export unit price climbed from €1,637/tonne to €2,200/tonne, a 34.3% increase.

Source: General Overview — trade

Imports surged in value even more than exports

EU imports tell an even more price-driven story. Import volumes grew only modestly (+2.7%), but import values surged by 52.9%, driven by a 49.0% rise in import unit prices (from €1,567/tonne to €2,335/tonne). By 2025, import prices had actually overtaken export prices (€2,335 vs. €2,200 per tonne), a reversal from 2015 when exports commanded a premium. This suggests that the EU increasingly sources higher-value processed or specialty poultry from abroad, while its own exports are shifting toward comparatively lower-priced product categories on average.

Domestic production expanded dramatically

EU poultry production (available in kilograms) grew from 8.79 billion kg in 2015 to 15.74 billion kg in 2025 — a remarkable 79.1% increase in quantity. Production value grew even faster, from €16.3 billion to €40.5 billion (+148.6%). This confirms that the EU's poultry sector has been scaling up significantly, which helps explain how export volumes could decline even as the industry itself expanded: a growing share of output is being absorbed by intra-EU demand and domestic consumption.

Source: Production volumes

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

The United Kingdom consolidated its dominance as the EU's primary export market

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export destination throughout the period, growing from €1.33 billion in 2015 to €1.98 billion in 2025 (+48.8%). By 2025, the UK alone absorbed more than half of all EU extra-EU poultry exports by value. The volatility of this trade flow was also notably low (coefficient of variation of 0.095), indicating a stable, structural trade relationship — consistent with geographic proximity, integrated supply chains, and post-Brexit continuity arrangements.

Source: Top partners by value

African markets gained prominence while Middle Eastern and South African demand collapsed

A notable geographic shift occurred in EU export destinations. Saudi Arabia, once the EU's second-largest export market (€231 million in 2015), saw imports from the EU collapse to €82 million (−64.5%). South African imports from the EU fell even more sharply, from €185 million to just €19 million (−89.7%). Benin, a traditional re-export hub in West Africa, halved from €169 million to €84 million.

In contrast, Ghana rose to €171 million (+200.6%) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo surged to €153 million (+341.1%). This pattern is consistent with a shift in EU poultry export strategy toward emerging Sub-Saharan African markets, possibly linked to population growth, urbanisation, and evolving trade agreements, while Middle Eastern and South African markets faced increasing competition from Brazilian and other suppliers.

Ukraine underwent the most dramatic transformation on the import side

The most dramatic single shift in the entire dataset concerns EU imports from Ukraine. In 2015, Ukraine supplied €65 million worth of poultry to the EU; by 2025, this figure had surged to €457 million — a 607% increase. Ukraine went from being a marginal supplier to the EU's second-largest poultry import source, overtaking Brazil. The coefficient of variation (0.46) reflects the rapid and uneven trajectory of this growth.

Source: Top partners by value

The United Kingdom's role as an import source shrank dramatically

In a mirror image of its export dominance, the UK's position as a poultry supplier to the EU collapsed. Imports from the UK fell from €319 million in 2015 to €123 million in 2025 (−61.4%), making the UK fall from the top import source to a position now challenged by Ukraine and Brazil. This likely reflects post-Brexit trade friction and currency effects, as well as the redirection of UK production toward its domestic market.

EU concentration patterns diverged between imports and exports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration declined from 3,867 to 3,492 (−9.7% by value), indicating that the EU's import sources became somewhat more diversified. In contrast, export concentration increased from 2,376 to 3,284 (+38.2% by value), reflecting the growing dominance of the UK as an export destination.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3. Poland's Rise and the Reshaping of the EU Internal Production Landscape

Poland became the EU's dominant poultry exporter

Among EU Member States, the most transformative internal shift was Poland's ascent. Poland's extra-EU poultry exports grew from €407 million in 2015 to €1.19 billion in 2025 (+192.6%), making it the second-largest EU exporter after the Netherlands. Poland also achieved the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) score in 2025 (0.671), with an RCA of 5.07 — confirming deep specialisation in poultry production. Poland's share of EU poultry production stood at 33.7%, up substantially over the period.

Source: Top reporters by value

France experienced the steepest decline among major EU exporters

France, once the EU's second-largest poultry exporter (€581 million in 2015), saw its exports fall to €262 million (−54.8%). This is consistent with broader trends of structural decline in French poultry production, including the impacts of avian influenza outbreaks and competitive pressures. Meanwhile, Hungary (+38.7%) and Spain (+42.7%) grew their export positions, consolidating Central and Southern European roles in the EU's poultry export base.

Austria emerged as an unexpected major import hub

The most striking internal import shift was Austria, which went from €2.7 million in imports in 2015 to €131 million in 2025 — a staggering 4,701% increase. This may reflect Austria's role as a logistics and processing hub, or the re-routing of third-country imports through its territory. The Netherlands also grew its imports substantially, from €169 million to €465 million (+174.7%), further reinforcing the Dutch role as a key trade gateway. Conversely, Ireland (−64.0%), Germany (−59.0%), and Poland (−83.5%) sharply reduced their extra-EU import volumes.

Source: Top reporters by value

Frozen chicken cuts dominate the product mix, but fresh products are gaining value share

Looking at product sub-segments, the trade is overwhelmingly concentrated in chicken cuts. Frozen chicken cuts (020714) dominated exports at 887,751 tonnes in 2025 (worth €985 million), though this was down from 932,844 tonnes in 2015. In contrast, fresh/chilled chicken cuts (020713) grew from 235,603 tonnes to 325,137 tonnes, and their value surged from €727 million to €1.56 billion — reflecting both volume growth and a dramatic price increase (from €3,085/t to €4,801/t). This suggests a strategic shift toward higher-value fresh product exports.

On the import side, frozen chicken cuts (020714) remained the largest category by volume (183,926 tonnes in 2025), followed by fresh chicken cuts (020713 at 169,641 tonnes). Notably, imports of frozen ducks (020742) collapsed from 1,670 tonnes in 2015 to just 115 tonnes in 2025.

Source: Product segment breakdown

Conclusion

The EU's poultry meat trade over 2015–2025 was defined by three overarching dynamics. First, value growth far outpaced volume growth, with unit prices rising by 34–49% across exports and imports alike. The EU's poultry market is increasingly a high-value market, even as physical trade volumes stagnated or declined. Second, the geography of trade was dramatically reoriented. Ukraine's emergence as the EU's second-largest import source (+607%) and the simultaneous collapse of UK imports (−61%) represent the most significant bilateral shifts, driven by the convergence of EU-Ukraine trade liberalisation and post-Brexit trade reconfiguration. On the export side, the growing importance of Sub-Saharan African markets (Ghana, DRC) and the decline of traditional Middle Eastern and South African destinations point to evolving demand patterns. Third, the internal EU landscape was reshaped by Poland's ascent as the bloc's specialised poultry production powerhouse and France's steep decline, while the Netherlands consolidated its role as the central trade hub.

Despite these transformations, the EU's fundamental structural position remained stable: it continued to be a net exporter of poultry meat (net import reliance between −6% and −9% throughout), and the trade balance actually widened in absolute terms to €2.73 billion by 2025. The main vulnerability on the horizon is the growing concentration of export flows toward the United Kingdom, which now absorbs over half of extra-EU poultry exports by value, creating significant single-market dependency risk.

For further analysis, see the vulnerability dashboard and the specialisation data.