Market evolution: Chicken cuts (CN 020713) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in fresh or chilled cuts and edible offal of fowls of the species Gallus domesticus (customs code 020713) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has consistently been a net exporter of this product category, maintaining a persistent trade surplus that more than doubled over the decade, rising from €592.6 million to €1,295.7 million (+118.6%). The period was characterised by three overarching trends: strong growth in both export value and volume, a pronounced eastward reorientation of the EU's production and export base, and a marked acceleration of unit prices from 2021 onward—driven by post-pandemic recovery, input cost inflation, and the disruption caused by avian influenza outbreaks.

The product definition covers a broad range of fresh or chilled poultry items—from boneless cuts and breasts to legs, wings, backs, necks, and edible offal—making it one of the most commercially significant agri-food headings traded by the EU.

I. Rapid value expansion driven by rising unit prices

Export value more than doubled while volumes grew at a slower pace

Over the period under review, EU exports of CN 020713 grew from €726.8 million (2015) to €1,560.9 million (2025), an increase of 114.8%. Export volumes, by contrast, rose from 235,603 tonnes to 325,137 tonnes (+38.0%). This divergence indicates that price effects accounted for the majority of the value expansion. Indeed, the average EU export unit price climbed from €3,085/t to €4,801/t (+55.6%), reaching its peak in 2025.

Source: General Overview

The price acceleration was sharpest from 2021 onward

EU export prices remained broadly stable in the €3,100–3,600/t range between 2015 and 2020. A structural break appears from 2021, when prices surged to €3,470/t and then continued rising sharply—reaching €4,517/t in 2022, €4,504/t in 2023, €4,753/t in 2024, and finally €4,801/t in 2025. This acceleration likely reflects a combination of post-COVID demand recovery, sharply increased feed and energy costs following the 2022 energy crisis, and recurrent avian influenza outbreaks that tightened supply. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, rising from €686/t (the 2015–2025 minimum) to €1,564/t, a near-doubling.

Boneless cuts dominate exports, while breast imports surged

Breaking the product down by subheading reveals a strong structural shift in EU trade composition:

• Exports are overwhelmingly concentrated in boneless cuts (CN 02071310), which grew from €482.1 million to €1,347.2 million (+179.5%) and accounted for 86.3% of export value by 2025. Legs (02071360) and other bone-in cuts (02071370) also grew in value terms.
• Imports show a striking rise in bone-in breasts (CN 02071350), which surged from €21.1 million to €124.9 million (+491.8%), becoming the largest single import category by value by 2025. This may reflect the EU's difficulty in meeting domestic demand for premium breast meat with internal production alone, or changing trade patterns following Brexit. Meanwhile, imports of backs and necks (02071340) remained the largest category by volume (69,387t in 2025), reflecting the EU's role in importing lower-value cuts for further processing.

II. The United Kingdom and Poland as twin pillars of EU chicken trade

The UK absorbed nearly 90% of EU exports by value

The United Kingdom is by far the EU's dominant external trade partner for chicken cuts. EU exports to the UK grew from €648.9 million in 2015 to €1,395.4 million in 2025 (+115.1%), accounting for 89.4% of total EU export value. This massive concentration reflects geographic proximity, integrated supply chains, and the UK's significant consumption of EU-produced poultry. UK import flows into the EU moved in the opposite direction, declining from €113.3 million to €55.8 million (−50.8%), suggesting a growing EU trade surplus with the UK specifically—a trend that may partly reflect post-Brexit trade reorientation and supply chain adjustments.

Source: Partners

Ukraine emerged as a major import source, while most African destinations lost ground

On the import side, Ukraine experienced explosive growth, rising from €19.9 million to €202.0 million (+915.8%) over the decade. This reflects the EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement, which progressively liberalised poultry trade, as well as the dramatic expansion of Ukraine's poultry sector (notably driven by companies like MHP). By 2025, Ukraine had become the EU's second-largest import source behind the UK. Meanwhile, several smaller African and Asian import origins—including Thailand (−99.8%) and Brazil (though growing from near-zero)—showed highly volatile patterns.

On the export side, several secondary markets in Africa (Ghana, South Africa, Benin) experienced declining values, potentially reflecting competition from Brazilian and other global exporters, currency depreciation in destination countries, or changing local trade policies.

Poland's export surge reshaped intra-EU production geography

Within the EU, Poland emerged as the most dramatic growth story. Polish exports of CN 020713 surged from €92.1 million to €525.1 million (+469.9%), making it the second-largest EU exporting Member State by 2025, behind the Netherlands. Romania also expanded dramatically (+234.3% to €89.2 million). This eastward shift is consistent with Poland's broader emergence as one of Europe's largest poultry producers, driven by lower labour costs, EU-funded modernisation of processing capacity, and competitive feed prices. The Netherlands remained the largest EU exporter (€662.1 million), reflecting its role as a major trading hub and processing centre.

Source: Reporters

III. Growing structural autonomy and moderate supply-chain risks

The EU consolidated its position as a net exporter

The EU's net import reliance for CN 020713 remained negative throughout the period (ranging from −4.5% to −8.9%), confirming that the EU is consistently a net exporter. The figure deepened slightly from −5.6% in 2015 to −5.9% in 2025, indicating that export growth marginally outpaced import growth in relative terms. EU domestic production volumes grew from 2.40 billion kg to 8.45 billion kg (+251.8%), while production value rose from €5.50 billion to €22.65 billion (+312.0%)—suggesting a significant expansion of the EU's chicken processing sector over the decade.

Source: Vulnerability and Production volumes

Specialisation is concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The specialisation analysis confirms the eastward shift observed in trade data. Poland leads with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.69 and an RCA of 5.54, followed by Romania (RSCA 0.38) and Latvia (RSCA 0.37). At the other end of the spectrum, Cyprus, Finland, Ireland, Czechia, and Portugal show strong negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers or have no meaningful competitive position in this product. This geographic concentration suggests that the EU's competitive advantage in chicken cuts increasingly depends on a handful of Central-Eastern European Member States.

Import diversification improved, but export concentration remains high

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration declined from 7,350 to 6,246 by value (−15.0%) and from 8,776 to 5,118 by volume (−41.7%), indicating that the EU has diversified its import sources over the decade—driven in part by the rise of Ukraine and smaller suppliers. However, export concentration remained essentially unchanged (HHI value: 8,031 → 8,075, +0.6%), reflecting the persistent dominance of the UK as an export destination. This extreme reliance on a single partner constitutes a structural vulnerability—any significant trade disruption with the UK (e.g., sanitary barriers, regulatory divergence, or tariff changes) would have outsized consequences for the EU chicken export sector.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU chicken cuts market (CN 020713) underwent substantial growth and structural transformation. The EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with the trade surplus reaching nearly €1.3 billion by 2025. Export value growth (+114.8%) significantly outpaced volume growth (+38.0%), reflecting a generalised rise in unit prices that accelerated sharply from 2021—driven by input cost inflation, avian influenza disruptions, and post-pandemic demand dynamics.

The geographic structure of trade became increasingly concentrated in two directions: the United Kingdom absorbed nearly 90% of EU exports, while Poland and Romania emerged as the EU's most specialised and fastest-growing producers and exporters. This dual concentration—on the demand side (UK) and the production side (Central-Eastern Europe)—represents both an efficiency gain and a vulnerability. On the import side, Ukraine's rise from a marginal supplier to the EU's second-largest import source (+915.8%) was the most striking development, reshaping import diversification patterns.

Looking ahead, the data suggests that the EU's chicken cuts sector is well-positioned competitively but remains exposed to supply-chain risks stemming from its heavy dependence on UK demand and from the geographic concentration of production capacity in a few Member States.