Market evolution: Spices coffee and tea (CN 09) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in product group CN 09—Coffee, Tea, Maté, and Spices—over the period 2015 to 2025. This category is a significant component of the EU's agricultural and food trade, encompassing essential everyday products as well as high-value specialty ingredients. The analysis reveals a decade characterized by robust growth, structural shifts, and increasing vulnerability to external supply dynamics.

The Scope & Definitions section confirms the product range includes coffee, tea, peppers, and various other spices. The period saw a near-doubling of import values and a significant increase in the EU's trade deficit in this sector, driven more by price increases than by volume growth.

1. Asymmetric Growth: A Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade in CN 09 expanded considerably between 2015 and 2025, but this growth was highly asymmetric, leading to a substantial deterioration in the trade balance.

Imports grew faster in value than in volume

EU imports of coffee, tea, and spices surged in value, rising from €10.4 billion in 2015 to €21.0 billion in 2025, an increase of 103.1%. In contrast, import volumes grew by only 10.8% over the same period. This indicates that the bulk of the value increase was driven by higher unit prices, which rose by 83.3%.

Exports grew but could not offset the import surge

EU exports also recorded strong growth, with value increasing by 96.9% to reach €4.5 billion in 2025. However, the absolute increase in export value (€2.2 billion) was far outstripped by the increase in import value (€10.7 billion). Consequently, the EU's trade deficit in this sector widened from -€8.1 billion in 2015 to -€16.5 billion in 2025.

EU Trade Balance for CN 09 (€ Billions)

Source: General Overview

2. Structural Shifts in Partners and Internal Specialization

The period was marked by a reconfiguration of the EU's trading relationships and notable internal specialization patterns among its member states.

Import concentration increased, highlighting supplier dependency

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value concentration rose from 1,110 in 2015 to 1,409 in 2025, indicating a moderate increase in market concentration. Brazil solidified its position as the dominant supplier, with its import value growing by 157% to €6.5 billion. Uganda saw the most dramatic growth, with its shipments to the EU increasing by 383% to become the sixth-largest supplier.

Top EU Import Partners by Value (€ Billions)

Source: General Overview

The EU's export market became more diversified

In contrast to imports, the concentration of EU exports decreased. The export HHI fell from 1,132 to 852, suggesting the EU found more diverse markets for its re-export and processed products. The United States and the United Kingdom remained the top destinations, while exports to Ukraine saw a notable increase of 247%.

Internal specialization is highly uneven

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows a stark divide. Bulgaria and Italy are the most specialized EU exporters of CN 09 products, likely reflecting strong re-export or processing industries. Conversely, member states like Malta, Cyprus, and Ireland show no specialization and are heavily reliant on imports.

3. Price-Driven Growth and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The overarching narrative of the decade is one of price inflation and increasing systemic exposure to external supply risks.

Coffee was the primary driver of both import and export values

Product segment analysis confirms that coffee (CN 0901) overwhelmingly dominates trade flows. It accounted for 83% of total import value and 80% of total export value in 2025. The price of imported coffee more than doubled from €3,133/t to €6,379/t, while the price of exported coffee rose from €5,797/t to €10,377/t.

Price Evolution for Key Products (€ per Tonne)

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Supply volatility is concentrated in specific corridors

The EU's import supply chain exhibits varying degrees of volatility. Imports from Uganda and Indonesia have the highest coefficient of variation (CV > 0.24), indicating more erratic shipment volumes. On the export side, trade with Belarus and Türkiye shows high volatility. A notable supply-price shock was detected in EU exports to India in 2023.

The EU's import reliance has deepened

The net import reliance metric, which measures the trade balance as a percentage of apparent consumption, worsened from -2.9% in 2015 to -5.0% in 2025. Simultaneously, the EU's trade intensity for this sector soared from 8.0% to 26.9%, indicating that the sector's engagement with global markets more than tripled, increasing its exposure to international price and supply shocks.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in coffee, tea, and spices expanded significantly in monetary terms, but this growth was predominantly price-driven, especially for imports. This led to a doubling of the sector's trade deficit. Structurally, the EU became more reliant on a somewhat more concentrated group of suppliers for imports, while successfully diversifying its export markets. Internally, specialization remains highly polarized among member states.

The key vulnerability exposed by this analysis is the EU's deepening import dependence in a climate of rising prices and supply volatility. The dramatic increase in trade intensity suggests the sector is now far more integrated into—and thus susceptible to—global market dynamics. Future stability will depend on diversifying supply sources, managing price risks, and enhancing the resilience of intra-EU value chains.