Market evolution: Anise and spice seeds (CN 0909) — 2015–2025
Introduction
CN 0909 covers a broad range of aromatic seeds and berries — including anise, badian (star anise), fennel, coriander, cumin, caraway, and juniper berries — that are central to the European food, beverage and flavouring industries. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in this product group underwent a significant transformation. Import value nearly doubled (+95.3%), rising from €56.2 million in 2015 to €109.8 million in 2025, while export value grew more moderately at +63.9%, from €55.3 million to €90.6 million. This asymmetry turned a near-balanced trade position in 2015 (deficit of just €0.9 million) into a structural deficit of €19.2 million by 2025. Underlying these headline figures are profound shifts in sourcing geography, sharp price escalation — particularly in cumin — and a growing concentration of imports around a single origin: India.
Full overview on the Trade Dashboard
1. India's ascent and the widening EU trade deficit
India became the EU's dominant supplier, reconfiguring import geography
The most striking structural change in EU trade for CN 0909 over the decade was the dramatic rise of India as the primary sourcing origin. In 2015, EU imports from India stood at €8.5 million, representing roughly 15% of total extra-EU imports and placing India behind both Syria (€9.7 million) and on par with Türkiye (€8.8 million) and Egypt (€8.4 million). By 2025, imports from India had surged to €46.9 million — a 450% increase — accounting for approximately 43% of all extra-EU imports by value. India's share grew at the expense of nearly every other major supplier.
Traditional Mediterranean and Middle Eastern suppliers lost ground
While India surged, several historically important suppliers experienced relative or absolute declines:
| Partner | 2015 (€ M) | 2025 (€ M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 8.5 | 46.9 | +450.0% |
| Egypt | 8.4 | 13.5 | +61.7% |
| China | 3.8 | 6.9 | +80.7% |
| Ukraine | 2.3 | 2.8 | +22.0% |
| Türkiye | 8.8 | 6.7 | −23.7% |
| Russian Federation | 2.8 | 1.5 | −47.0% |
| Syrian Arab Republic | 9.7 | 5.8 | −40.2% |
Syria's decline (−40.2%) is consistent with the protracted disruption of its agricultural export capacity following the civil war. Türkiye also saw a significant contraction (−23.7%), reflecting perhaps competitive pressure from Indian cumin and fennel. Russia's diminished role (−47.0%) aligns with the broader deterioration in EU–Russia trade relations following 2022 sanctions. Egypt and China, by contrast, managed moderate growth but could not match India's trajectory.
The EU trade balance shifted from near-equilibrium to a persistent structural deficit
In 2015, EU imports (€56.2 million) and exports (€55.3 million) were nearly balanced, producing a modest deficit of just €0.9 million. By 2025, the deficit had widened to €19.2 million — a deterioration of over 2,000%. Import value grew almost twice as fast as export value over the period (+95.3% vs. +63.9%), and while export volumes also grew (+28.2%), they could not keep pace with the rising unit values of imports (+59.0%). This indicates that the EU is increasingly dependent on extra-EU sourcing for these spices and is paying a higher price for them, while its re-export and processing activities, though growing, generate less value per unit.
2. A steep and uneven price escalation, led by cumin
Import prices rose nearly 60%, far outpacing export price growth
Over the full period, the average EU import price for CN 0909 rose from €1,981/t in 2015 to €3,150/t in 2025 — a 59.0% increase. The price peaked at €3,515/t around 2022–2023 before easing slightly. Export prices, by contrast, grew only 18.9%, from €1,391/t to €1,653/t. This divergence means that the EU is paying significantly more for raw and semi-processed seeds while its export unit values remain comparatively depressed — a pattern consistent with the EU acting as a bulk importer and re-exporter of lower-value-added or blended products.
Ground cumin (090932) was the fastest-growing segment in both volume and value
Within the CN 0909 heading, the sub-product that experienced the most dramatic expansion was ground cumin (090932). Import volumes tripled from 1,302 tonnes in 2015 to 4,164 tonnes in 2025, while import value surged from €3.6 million to €19.8 million — a near-sixfold increase. The unit import price of ground cumin climbed from €2,727/t to €4,761/t (+74.6%), reflecting both global cumin market inflation and the premium attached to processed product. Whole cumin (090931) also saw substantial price appreciation: its import price rose from €2,472/t to €3,821/t (+54.6%), while import value doubled from €16.4 million to €33.5 million.
Import prices for anise, badian, caraway and fennel (090961) surged then partially corrected
The combined category of juniper berries and seeds of anise, badian, caraway or fennel (090961) — the largest sub-segment by import volume — saw its unit price rise from €2,279/t in 2015 to a peak of €4,009/t in 2023, before falling back to €3,389/t in 2025. This represents a net increase of +48.7%. Volume, however, remained relatively stable (10,823–12,243 tonnes), suggesting that demand is fairly inelastic but price-sensitive at the margins. The value of this segment's imports grew from €24.7 million to €41.5 million.
The cumin price trajectory signals structural supply-side pressures
The sustained rise in cumin prices — both whole and ground — over multiple years points to more than transient supply shocks. India, which dominates global cumin production, has seen variable harvests linked to monsoon irregularity and rising domestic demand. The EU's growing import dependence on Indian cumin (the primary driver of India's +450% import value increase) leaves it exposed to these production-side dynamics. Notably, the import price for whole cumin (090931) nearly doubled between 2021 and 2023 (from €2,701/t to €5,008/t) before correcting, indicating episodes of acute market tightness.
3. Rising concentration and the EU's re-export structure
Import supply concentration nearly doubled, driven by India's market share gain
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports of CN 0909 by value rose from 1,132 in 2015 to 2,157 in 2025 — an increase of 90.5%. An HHI above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated; at 2,157, the market is approaching that threshold. This concentration is almost entirely attributable to India's expanded share. By volume, the HHI followed a similar trajectory, rising from 1,010 to 1,719 (+70.3%). The concentration of export markets, while also rising, remained more moderate (HHI from 903 to 1,138, +26.1%), reflecting the EU's diversified export base across Asia, the UK and Africa.
Italy, Bulgaria and Germany anchor the EU export side, while Italy leads in value
On the export side, the EU acts as a significant processor and re-exporter of spice seeds. Italy was by far the largest EU exporter, with its extra-EU exports growing from €17.9 million in 2015 to €33.7 million in 2025 (+88.2%). This is consistent with Italy's role as a major European spice processing and trading hub. Bulgaria held a stable second position at €15.3 million, while Germany (€5.9 million → €10.5 million, +76.2%) and Spain (€4.5 million → €9.5 million, +112.8%) showed strong growth. Notably, Finland's exports surged from just €0.3 million to €6.3 million, a development that, given Finland's lack of natural growing conditions for these spices, likely reflects a re-export or trading operation.
Coriander seeds dominate EU exports, indicating a processing and re-export model
The product composition of EU exports reveals a clear structural pattern. Whole coriander seeds (090921) accounted for the overwhelming share of EU export volumes — reaching 44,686 tonnes in 2025, compared to just 6,745 tonnes in imports. This means the EU is a net exporter of whole coriander, importing raw material and re-exporting processed or repackaged product. Indeed, EU coriander exports grew from 34,739 tonnes in 2015 to 44,686 tonnes in 2025 (+28.6%), while the value rose from €35.8 million to €51.3 million (+43.1%). By contrast, cumin exports were minimal and declining (whole cumin exports fell from 900 to just 322 tonnes), confirming that cumin remains primarily an import-driven market for the EU.
Specialisation analysis reveals niche Northern European exporters alongside Mediterranean mainstays
Revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that Finland (RSCA 0.71), Lithuania (0.70), Estonia (0.41), Latvia (0.39) and Spain (0.34) are the most specialised EU exporters of CN 0909 products relative to their overall export profiles. For Finland, Lithuania and the Baltic states, this likely reflects trading intermediation rather than domestic production. Spain's position is more grounded in its Mediterranean agricultural base. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Malta (−0.92) and Luxembourg (−0.84) show no meaningful specialisation in this product group.
Conclusion
The EU market for anise, spice seeds and juniper berries (CN 0909) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most consequential shift has been the near-total dominance of India as the EU's primary sourcing origin — a development that has driven up supply concentration to levels warranting strategic attention. At the same time, the cumin sub-segment has emerged as the principal driver of both volume and price growth, with import unit values for ground cumin nearly doubling and the EU's cumin import bill rising sixfold. The EU's trade balance has swung from near-equilibrium into a structural deficit, as import value growth has consistently outpaced that of exports. While the EU retains a significant re-export and processing role — particularly for coriander via Italy, Bulgaria and Germany — its growing import dependence, combined with rising prices and concentrated sourcing, exposes it to supply-side risks from Indian agricultural production and global logistics. Monitoring the diversification of sourcing origins and the evolution of cumin and fennel prices will be essential for stakeholders in this market over the coming years.