Market evolution: Coffee (CN 0901) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of coffee under Combined Nomenclature code 0901 for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. CN 0901 covers green (unroasted) coffee, roasted and decaffeinated coffee, as well as coffee husks and substitutes. The EU is one of the world's largest coffee markets — it neither grows coffee at scale nor is it self-sufficient, yet it is a major processor and re-exporter of value-added coffee products. Over the decade under review, the EU's coffee trade underwent a dramatic transformation: total import values more than doubled while volumes barely moved, signalling a fundamental shift in global coffee pricing. Meanwhile, EU exports of roasted coffee expanded substantially, reinforcing the bloc's role as a coffee-processing hub. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A Decade of Soaring Values and Modest Volume Growth

1.1 Import values doubled while volumes stagnated

The most striking feature of EU coffee trade between 2015 and 2025 is the divergence between value and volume trajectories. EU imports rose from €8.56 billion in 2015 to €18.73 billion in 2025 (+118.9%), yet import volumes grew by only 7.5%, from 2.73 million tonnes to 2.94 million tonnes. The implied average import price thus climbed from €3,133/t to €6,379/t — an increase of +103.6%. This indicates that the EU's higher import bill was overwhelmingly driven by rising global coffee prices rather than by increased physical consumption.

1.2 The green-coffee price spike of 2021–2025

The price acceleration was not gradual. Green (unroasted) coffee — which accounts for over 90% of import volumes under subheading 090111 — saw its import price hover around €2,000–2,600/t for most of 2015–2020, before surging to €3,749/t in 2022, €4,094/t in 2024, and €5,942/t in 2025. This represents a near-tripling of the green coffee import price in just five years. The spike is consistent with well-documented global supply-side shocks — including severe frost and drought in Brazil (the world's largest producer), poor harvests in Vietnam, and rising input costs — that tightened global supply from 2021 onwards.

1.3 EU production grew in value but barely in volume

EU domestic production of coffee-related products followed a similar pattern: production quantity rose modestly from 2.01 billion kg to 2.11 billion kg (+5.0%), while production value climbed from €7.97 billion to €14.91 billion (+87.1%). This confirms that the value surge reflects higher input costs being passed through the processing chain, rather than a material expansion of EU roasting or manufacturing capacity. The EU's trade intensity for coffee — the ratio of trade to production — rose sharply from 6.3% to 25.9%, indicating that the EU economy became considerably more exposed to international coffee-price dynamics over the period.

2. Supplier Concentration and Shifting Geographical Patterns

2.1 Brazil dominates, but African origins are gaining ground

The EU's import base remained heavily concentrated on a handful of origins throughout 2015–2025. Brazil alone accounted for €6.40 billion of EU coffee imports in 2025, up from €2.41 billion in 2015 (+165.8%), making it by far the largest supplier. Vietnam, the second-largest origin, grew from €1.14 billion to €2.95 billion (+159.6%). Together, Brazil and Vietnam represented nearly half of all EU coffee import value by 2025.

The most dramatic growth came from Uganda, whose exports to the EU rose from €260 million to €1.26 billion — an increase of +383.9%. This reflects the rapid expansion of Ugandan coffee production and the country's increasing integration into European supply chains, particularly for Robusta-grade green coffee. The import concentration index (HHI) by value rose from 1,381 to 1,645 (+19.1%), suggesting that the EU's import base became somewhat more concentrated over the decade — driven precisely by Brazil's outsized gain in share.

2.2 The EU re-exports to diversified but established markets

EU coffee exports were directed at a broad set of destinations, led by the United Kingdom (€630 million in 2025, +81.8%) and the United States (€622 million, +76.8%). These two markets absorbed over a third of all EU coffee exports by value. Notable growth was registered in Ukraine (+293.3%), Norway (+103.5%), and Switzerland (+113.3%). The export concentration HHI by value fell from 1,211 to 857 (−29.3%), indicating that the EU's export base became more diversified over the period — the opposite trend to imports.

2.3 Germany and Italy anchor the EU's internal coffee economy

Among EU Member States, Germany remained the largest importer throughout the period (€6.16 billion in 2025, +110.2%), followed by Italy (€3.45 billion, +149.2%) and France (€2.21 billion, +45.5%). Italy also led EU coffee exports (€1.13 billion in 2025, +131.8%), closely followed by Germany (€1.05 billion, +113.5%). The Netherlands saw a striking +733.9% increase in imports (from €167 million to €1.39 billion), likely reflecting the growing role of Rotterdam as a coffee-trading hub. Meanwhile, specialisation analysis confirms that Italy (RSCA: 0.35) and Belgium (RSCA: 0.19) display the strongest comparative advantage in coffee trade among large EU economies, consistent with their well-established roasting industries.

3. Value-Added Exports Expand as the EU Deepens Its Processing Role

3.1 Roasted coffee dominates EU exports

The product segment breakdown reveals a clear structural asymmetry between what the EU imports and what it exports. On the import side, unroasted green coffee (090111) overwhelmingly dominates, accounting for 2.84 million tonnes (96.9% of import volume) and €16.90 billion (90.2% of import value) in 2025. On the export side, roasted non-decaffeinated coffee (090121) is the leading segment: its volume rose from 138 kt in 2015 to 220 kt in 2025 (+59.2%), and its value climbed from €1.07 billion to €2.61 billion (+145.2%).

This pattern underscores the EU's role as a major coffee roasting and re-export platform: it imports raw green beans in bulk and ships out higher-value roasted products.

3.2 Export prices rose steeply but less than import prices

Export prices for roasted coffee (090121) rose from €7,695/t in 2015 to €11,849/t in 2025 (+54.0%). While significant, this increase was considerably smaller than the +126.5% rise in green coffee import prices over the same period. This price gap may reflect competitive pressures in downstream markets, where EU roasters have absorbed some of the input-cost increase rather than fully passing it through. The net import reliance worsened slightly, moving from −4.5% to −6.1% (−35.6%), confirming that the EU became marginally more dependent on external coffee supply over the decade.

3.3 Decaffeinated coffee: a niche segment with rapid price appreciation

A noteworthy sub-trend concerns decaffeinated green coffee (090112). While import volumes remained small (rising from 8,870 t to 19,213 t), its import value surged from €28 million to €124 million (+340.8%), implying an import price increase from €3,169/t to €6,451/t (+103.6%). On the export side, decaffeinated green coffee volumes actually fell from 98,016 t to 64,791 t (−33.9%), yet value grew from €346 million to €492 million (+42.1%). This suggests that the EU's decaf-processing segment faced both higher raw-material costs and a contraction in re-export volumes — likely reflecting shifting consumer preferences and tighter supply of decaffeinated-grade beans.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU coffee trade was reshaped primarily by global price dynamics rather than by volume growth. Import values more than doubled on the back of surging green-coffee prices, particularly from 2021 onwards, while physical import volumes grew by less than 8%. Brazil consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, and the EU's import base became slightly more concentrated. On the export side, the EU expanded its role as a coffee-processing hub: roasted coffee exports grew robustly in both volume and value, and the export base became more geographically diversified. However, the widening trade deficit — from €7.0 billion to €15.1 billion — and the rising net import reliance highlight the EU's continued structural dependence on external coffee supply. Looking ahead, the sustainability of EU coffee trade will hinge on global supply conditions in major producing regions and the ability of European roasters to manage input-cost pressures in an increasingly volatile market.