Market evolution: Roasted coffee (CN 090121) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Over the period 2015 to 2025, the EU's trade in roasted, non-decaffeinated coffee (CN 090121) underwent a fundamental transformation. The data reveals a story of a bloc that transitioned from a net importer reliant on external supplies to a significant net exporter, dramatically increasing its share of the global market. This structural shift was driven by surging export volumes and values, which outpaced the more modest growth in imports, leading to a positive and widening trade balance. This report examines the key dynamics behind this evolution, focusing on the change in trade balance, the evolving geography of trade, and the associated shifts in market concentration and price structure.
The Pivot from Net Importer to Major Net Exporter
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the reversal of the EU's trade balance. The bloc moved from a deficit of €-333 million in 2015 to a surplus of €1.04 billion by 2025, representing a 412% improvement. This was fueled by an exceptional performance in exports, which far exceeded the evolution of imports.
Export Growth Dramatically Outpaced Import Growth
While EU imports of roasted coffee grew steadily in value (from €1.40 billion to €1.57 billion, +12.6%) and quantity (from 56,144 t to 67,213 t, +19.7%), the expansion of EU exports was explosive. Export value surged from €1.07 billion to €2.61 billion (+145.2%), and export quantity jumped from 138,407 t to 220,406 t (+59.2%). This divergence is central to the market's evolution, indicating that the EU has not only consolidated its role as a processor but has become a major global supplier of finished roasted coffee.
The Price Dynamic Reflected Shifting Value Chains
The price trends tell a complementary story. The unit value of EU exports rose significantly by 54%, from €7,695/t in 2015 to €11,849/t in 2025. Conversely, the unit value of imports decreased slightly by 6%, from €24,898/t to €23,416/t. This suggests the EU is increasingly exporting higher-value-added roasted coffee products while its import basket may be shifting towards relatively less expensive goods or raw material inputs. The widening gap between export and import unit values underscores the EU's specialization in premium roasted coffee products.
Key trade figures (2015 vs. 2025):
| Flow | Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | Value (EUR) | 1,397,851,522 | 1,573,866,171 | +12.6% |
| Quantity (t) | 56,143.8 | 67,213.2 | +19.7% | |
| Price (EUR/t) | 24,897.7 | 23,415.8 | -6.0% | |
| Exports | Value (EUR) | 1,065,189,900 | 2,612,045,768 | +145.2% |
| Quantity (t) | 138,407.5 | 220,405.9 | +59.2% | |
| Price (EUR/t) | 7,694.8 | 11,849.3 | +54.0% | |
| Balance | Value (EUR) | -332,661,622 | +1,038,179,597 | +412.1% |
A Restructured and Diversifying Trade Partnership Network
The geographical focus of EU trade evolved significantly, with a consolidation of key partnerships for both imports and exports, alongside the rapid emergence of new markets.
Imports Remained Dominated by Switzerland, with New Partners Gaining Ground
The concentration of imports (HHI) remained relatively stable and high, decreasing only 3.6% from 7,816 to 7,537, indicating persistent reliance on a few major sources. Switzerland has been the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, accounting for the vast majority of imports by value throughout the period (from €1.23 billion in 2015 to €1.36 billion in 2025). The United Kingdom was the second-largest partner. Notably, several smaller suppliers experienced explosive growth from low baselines: Bosnia and Herzegovina (+419%), Kenya (+30,149%), and the Syrian Arab Republic (+2,385%), suggesting potential diversification efforts or shifting regional supply chains.
Exports Diversified, Driven by the UK, Russia, and the USA
The export market structure became more diversified, with the HHI for value dropping by 34.2% from 1,124 to 739. The United Kingdom solidified its position as the primary destination, with exports growing by 73.8% to €514 million. The most dramatic growth was seen in exports to Ukraine (+313%), Türkiye (+536%), and the United States (+178%). The Russian Federation also saw strong growth (+69%). This diversification across Europe, Eurasia, and North America highlights the EU's expanding footprint in the global roasted coffee market.
Top 3 EU partners by value in 2025:
| Flow | Partner | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | Switzerland | 1,227,048,243 | 1,358,447,925 | +10.7% |
| United Kingdom | 146,100,437 | 142,470,713 | -2.5% | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1,887,230 | 9,799,618 | +419.3% | |
| Exports | United Kingdom | 295,753,514 | 514,117,846 | +73.8% |
| Russian Federation | 100,940,025 | 170,825,617 | +69.2% | |
| Ukraine | 45,843,845 | 189,390,674 | +313.1% |
Increased Market Integration and Evolving Competitive Position
The EU's trade performance reflects a deeper integration into the global coffee value chain, characterized by heightened trade intensity and a stable, though specialized, production base.
Trade Intensity Surged, Indicating Specialization
The trade intensity of the EU in roasted coffee increased massively from 4.4% in 2015 to 23.7% in 2025, a 441% rise. Similarly, export propensity grew from 3.4% to 15.4%. These metrics confirm that roasted coffee became a far more important product in the EU's overall trade portfolio, with a growing share of domestic production destined for export markets.
Internal Production Grew, Supporting Export Expansion
This export boom was underpinned by a growing domestic industry. EU production quantity increased by 20% from 1.53 billion kg to 1.83 billion kg, while production value nearly doubled, rising by 94% from €7.09 billion to €13.75 billion. This indicates that EU producers not only increased volumes but also captured significantly more value through premiumization or price increases.
Specialization is Concentrated in Key Member States
The EU's export competitiveness is not uniform across the bloc. Specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Italy has by far the most specialized and largest production share (22.5% of EU production, RCA of 2.81), making it the powerhouse of EU roasted coffee exports. Germany and the Netherlands are other major exporters, as confirmed by their top positions among EU reporters by value. In contrast, countries like Ireland and Malta have virtually no export specialization in this product.
Conclusion
The period 2015–2025 marked a pivotal era for EU trade in roasted coffee (CN 090121). The EU successfully transformed its market position from a net importer to a dominant net exporter, achieving a trade surplus exceeding €1 billion. This was accomplished through a 145% increase in export value, driven by growth in established markets like the UK and rapid penetration into dynamic markets such as Ukraine, Türkiye, and the USA. This expansion was supported by a 20% increase in domestic production and a surge in trade intensity, indicating the sector's growing importance to the EU economy. The market remains structurally reliant on Swiss imports, but the EU's competitive edge, led by Italian producers, has been decisively strengthened, reducing vulnerability and increasing the bloc's role as a key global supplier in the roasted coffee market.