Market evolution: Green coffee (CN 090111) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of green (unroasted, non-decaffeinated) coffee imported and exported by the European Union between 2015 and 2025. The EU is the world's largest single market for green coffee, and the decade under review was shaped by two countervailing forces: gradually stable import volumes on one hand, and a dramatic escalation of unit prices—especially from 2021 onward—on the other. The result is a structural shift in the EU's trade bill, a deepening trade deficit, and evolving supply relationships that deserve close attention from policymakers and market participants alike.

1. A Price-Driven Boom: Import Expenditure Nearly Triples While Volumes Stagnate

1.1 Import values surged far ahead of physical quantities

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the decoupling between the value and volume of EU green coffee imports. Total import expenditure rose from €6.98 billion in 2015 to €16.90 billion in 2025, a gain of +142.3%. Over the same interval, imported quantity grew by only +6.9%, from 2.66 million tonnes to 2.84 million tonnes.

The average import price therefore nearly doubled, climbing from €2,622/t to €5,942/t. This means that almost the entire increase in the EU's import bill is attributable to higher unit costs rather than to the purchase of additional coffee.

1.2 A volatile price path with a sharp post-2020 acceleration

The price trajectory was not linear. The average unit import price reached a period minimum of €2,034/t before recovering and accelerating sharply from 2021 onward. This pattern aligns with well-documented global drivers: the severe frost in Brazil in July 2021, drought conditions in major producing regions, COVID-era logistics disruptions, and broader commodity inflation. The result is that by 2025 the EU was paying the highest average import price recorded in the dataset—€5,942/t—more than +126.6% above the 2015 level.

Import volumes, by contrast, fluctuated within a relatively narrow band between 2.65 million tonnes (the period minimum) and 2.95 million tonnes (the peak), suggesting that EU demand for green coffee is price-inelastic in physical terms but highly sensitive in budgetary terms.

1.3 The EU's trade deficit widened to record levels

Because the EU produces virtually no green coffee domestically—the specialisation data show negligible domestic production across all Member States—the trade balance is structurally negative and closely mirrors import dynamics. The deficit widened from −€6.86 billion in 2015 to −€16.52 billion in 2025, a deterioration of −140.8%. Even the period minimum deficit (−€5.65 billion) was already substantial, underscoring the EU's deep structural dependence on external coffee suppliers.

2. Persistent Dominance of Traditional Suppliers and the Rise of New Origins

2.1 Brazil and Viet Nam remain the twin pillars of EU supply

The partner-country breakdown reveals a clear hierarchy. Brazil supplied €6.39 billion worth of green coffee to the EU in 2025, up +165.9% from €2.40 billion in 2015. Viet Nam was the second-largest origin at €2.85 billion (+155.3%). Together, these two countries accounted for well over half of the EU's total import value in 2025, cementing their positions as the backbone of the European coffee supply chain.

2.2 Uganda emerged as the fastest-growing supplier

Among the top seven partners, Uganda stands out with a remarkable +383.9% increase in export value to the EU—from €260 million in 2015 to €1.26 billion in 2025. This propelled Uganda from a mid-tier origin to the fourth-largest supplier, overtaking Peru and approaching Honduras. Uganda's growth likely reflects both the expansion of Robusta production in East Africa and the increasing attractiveness of African origins to European roasters seeking supply diversification.

By contrast, the traditional Central American and Andean origins—Honduras (+68.5%) and Peru (+70.8%)—experienced more modest value growth, partly because their unit prices were already relatively high and partly because their volume growth was constrained by production challenges.

2.3 Import concentration edged upward, signalling modest supply risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 1,669 in 2015 to 1,920 in 2025, a +15.0% increase. While the HHI remained below the 2,500 threshold commonly associated with high concentration, the upward drift indicates a slight narrowing of the supply base in value terms—driven largely by Brazil's outsized gain. The volume-based HHI followed a similar, though slightly more moderate, trajectory (+5.2%).

This growing concentration warrants monitoring: any disruption to Brazilian or Vietnamese supply—whether from weather events, policy changes, or logistics bottlenecks—would have an outsized impact on the EU market.

3. EU Re-exports: Fast Growth, Diversifying Destinations, and Heightened Volatility

3.1 EU green coffee exports grew more than threefold in value

Although the EU is a net importer of green coffee, it also exports significant quantities—reflecting the role of major trading hubs (notably the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) in re-exporting, warehousing, and arbitraging within the global coffee chain. Export value rose from €118 million to €384 million (+225.2%), while export volume grew from 32,576 tonnes to 53,344 tonnes (+63.8%). The average export unit price climbed from €3,628/t to €7,165/t (+97.5%), meaning that—mirroring the import side—price appreciation, not volume expansion, was the primary driver.

3.2 Switzerland, the UK, and the United States became key export markets

The destination breakdown shows a marked shift in EU export flows. The most dramatic growth was registered in exports to:

The US and Norway, previously marginal destinations, became significant outlets—possibly reflecting the growth of specialty coffee roasting and direct sourcing models that route through European logistics platforms. Meanwhile, the export concentration HHI declined from 1,114 to 893 (−19.9%), indicating that EU exports became more diversified over the decade—a favourable structural trend.

3.3 Export volatility remained high, with a notable price shock detected in 2022

The volatility analysis reveals that EU export flows were considerably more volatile than import flows across nearly all major partners. The coefficient of variation (CV) for exports to Belarus (0.80), Bosnia and Herzegovina (0.70), and Australia (0.49) was notably high, suggesting episodic or opportunistic trade patterns.

A specific shock event was detected in exports to Australia in 2022: a price shock with an abnormality score of 10.1 and a +87% year-on-year price shift, capturing 7.1% of the export value in that period. This likely reflects the confluence of the post-COVID logistics cost spike, the weakening of the Australian dollar, and elevated global coffee prices following the Brazilian frost.

On the import side, volatility was generally lower but not negligible. The most volatile import origins were Indonesia (CV 0.286), Tanzania (0.245), Uganda (0.244), and Nicaragua (0.238)—all smaller or more weather-exposed producers whose supply to the EU fluctuated significantly year to year.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 decade transformed the economic profile of EU green coffee trade without fundamentally altering its physical scale. Import volumes grew modestly (+6.9%), but the import bill nearly tripled (+142.3%) as unit prices surged from €2,622/t to €5,942/t—a reminder that the EU's coffee security is as much a price story as a volume story. Brazil and Viet Nam consolidated their dominance, while Uganda emerged as a fast-rising supplier. On the export side, EU re-exports grew rapidly and became more geographically diversified, though with considerable volatility. The widening trade deficit—from −€6.9 billion to −€16.5 billion—underscores the EU's deepening financial exposure to global coffee market dynamics. Looking ahead, the key risks remain supply concentration (rising HHI on the import side), price sensitivity to climate shocks in tropical origins, and the sustainability of export diversification in an increasingly competitive global trading environment.