Market evolution: Cinnamon (CN 0906) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of cinnamon and cinnamon-tree flowers (customs code 0906) within the European Union from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the EU has remained a net importer, with trade flows shaped by rising unit values, shifting supplier landscapes, and distinct product segment trends. The analysis covers value, volume, and price trends, identifies key partners, and assesses market concentration and volatility.
1. Price-Driven Growth Amplifies the Trade Deficit
The EU's trade in cinnamon over the 2015–2025 period was characterized by significant value growth that outpaced quantity increases, driven largely by rising unit prices.
Import value growth substantially outpaced volume
The total value of EU cinnamon imports surged by 106.4% (from €33.9 million to €70.0 million), while import volumes grew by only 27.9% (from 13,952 to 17,849 tonnes). This divergence pushed the average import price up by 61.3% (from €2,432/t to €3,923/t).
| Flow | Metric | First (2015) | Last (2025) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | Value (EUR) | 33,926,867 | 70,030,116 | +106.4 |
| Quantity (Tonnes) | 13,951.676 | 17,849.224 | +27.9 | |
| Price (EUR/t) | 2,432 | 3,923 | +61.3 | |
| Exports | Value (EUR) | 8,551,907 | 16,848,651 | +97.0 |
| Quantity (Tonnes) | 1,588.271 | 2,048.211 | +29.0 | |
| Price (EUR/t) | 5,384 | 8,225 | +52.8 |
The EU's trade deficit nearly doubled in value
As a result of this price-driven growth, the trade deficit in cinnamon widened dramatically. Despite modest volume growth in both imports and exports, the deficit in value terms expanded from -€25.4 million in 2015 to -€53.2 million in 2025, an increase of 109.6%. This indicates the EU's growing expenditure on cinnamon imports was not offset by its export earnings.
2. Diversifying Suppliers Amid Concentration Shifts
The composition of the EU's top cinnamon suppliers underwent a major transformation between 2015 and 2025, leading to a significant decrease in import market concentration.
Viet Nam emerged as a dominant secondary supplier
While Indonesia remained the largest single import partner, its share of imports grew relatively modestly (+29.4%). The most dramatic shift came from Viet Nam, whose exports to the EU increased nearly tenfold (from €1.8 million to €17.7 million), making it a major supplier on par with Sri Lanka. Imports from China and Tanzania also saw substantial, though smaller, absolute growth.
| Partner (Imports) | Value 2015 (EUR) | Value 2025 (EUR) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 17,976,204 | 23,256,278 | +29.4 |
| Viet Nam | 1,771,082 | 17,702,101 | +899.5 |
| Sri Lanka | 7,447,276 | 11,703,109 | +57.1 |
| Madagascar | 2,913,897 | 6,607,156 | +126.7 |
| China | 1,562,786 | 6,677,820 | +327.3 |
Import concentration decreased as supply diversified
This influx from new sources, particularly Viet Nam, is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration. The HHI by value fell sharply from 3,426 to 2,208 (a 35.6% decrease), indicating a move away from a highly concentrated supplier base towards a more diversified one. This shift likely enhances the EU's supply security.
3. Crushed and Ground Cinnamon Commands Market Share
Analysis at the product sub-segment level reveals a clear structural trend within the overall cinnamon market, with processed forms gaining dominance in both import and export flows.
Processed cinnamon drives import growth
Among the three sub-codes, crushed or ground cinnamon (090620) saw the most explosive growth. Its import value nearly quadrupled from €8.4 million to €32.0 million, and its volume more than doubled from 4,105 to 9,510 tonnes. In contrast, the volume of whole "Ceylon" cinnamon (090611) imports remained roughly stable, and other cinnamon forms (090619) saw a decline in volume. By 2025, crushed and ground cinnamon accounted for the largest share of imports by value (€32.0M out of €70.0M total).
Export specialization mirrors import trends
EU exports were dominated even more strongly by crushed and ground cinnamon (090620), which represented 75% of export value in 2025. Notably, the export price for whole "Ceylon" cinnamon (090611) reached a premium of €19,093/t in 2025, far exceeding other segments, suggesting a niche for high-value, authentic Cinnamomum zeylanicum in re-exports.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU cinnamon market expanded substantially in value, primarily due to rising global prices rather than dramatic increases in physical consumption. This price effect exacerbated the EU's trade deficit. The supply landscape transformed significantly, with Viet Nam ascending to a position of major importance and overall import concentration declining, indicating greater supplier diversification. Within the product mix, demand shifted decisively towards processed, crushed, and ground cinnamon, which became the dominant category for both imports and exports, while high-value whole Ceylon cinnamon maintained a smaller but premium-priced niche in trade flows.