Market evolution: Canned vegetables (CN 2005) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in prepared or preserved vegetables under Combined Nomenclature code 2005 over the period 2015–2025. This heading covers a broad range of canned and preserved vegetables — including olives, beans, sweetcorn, asparagus, potatoes, peas, bamboo shoots, and various vegetable mixtures — excluding tomatoes, mushrooms, truffles, sugar-preserved products, and frozen goods. CN 2005 is a residual (bundled) heading that captures a significant share of the EU's processed vegetable trade. The analysis draws on annual trade data between the European Union and non-EU countries, covering both import and export flows, and is structured around three central themes: the macro-level trajectory of trade volumes and values, the evolving geography of key trading partners, and the internal EU market structure and product composition.

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I. Strong value growth driven predominantly by price inflation rather than volume expansion

The decade 2015–2025 saw the EU's trade in CN 2005 grow substantially in monetary terms, but the underlying volume story is far more modest — pointing to a market where rising unit values, rather than surging quantities, have been the primary engine of growth.

Export value far outpaces export volume

EU exports of CN 2005 to non-EU countries rose from €1.58 billion in 2015 to €2.61 billion in 2025, a gain of 65.1%. Over the same period, exported quantity increased by only 8.1%, from 1,071,706 tonnes to 1,158,294 tonnes. The implied average export price climbed from €1,475 per tonne to €2,253 per tonne, a rise of 52.7%. This divergence indicates that inflationary pressures — whether from input costs (energy, packaging, labour), shifts toward higher-value product mixes, or supply chain disruptions — have been the dominant force behind the expansion of export revenue.

Source: General Overview – trade

Import growth is more volume-driven but prices also climbed

Imports tell a slightly different story. Import value grew 59.0%, from €774 million to €1.23 billion, while import volumes expanded 31.5%, from 442,547 tonnes to 581,899 tonnes. The average import price rose from €1,748 to €2,114 per tonne (+20.9%). While import price inflation was more moderate than on the export side, the sharper volume growth on the import side reflects the EU's increasing appetite for third-country preserved vegetables — likely driven by cost competitiveness of suppliers in Türkiye, Egypt, and North Africa, as well as growing demand for products like sweetcorn and vegetable mixtures that the EU does not fully cover domestically.

The EU remains a structural net exporter with a growing surplus

Throughout the entire period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 2005. The surplus expanded from €808 million in 2015 to €1.38 billion in 2025, an increase of 70.9%. The EU's net import reliance remained negative throughout (from −3.5% in 2015 to −1.0% in 2025), confirming that the bloc is a consistent net exporter of preserved vegetables. The fact that this negative reliance has become less pronounced (closer to zero) reflects faster import growth relative to exports in volume terms, but the EU's net exporter status is firmly intact.

Source: Net import reliance

II. Import diversification contrasts with export concentration in a handful of premium markets

The geographic structure of EU trade in CN 2005 reveals two contrasting dynamics: on the export side, a stable concentration around Anglo-Saxon and Gulf markets, and on the import side, a broadening supplier base driven by the rise of Türkiye and Egypt alongside established suppliers.

The UK and the US remain the EU's dominant export markets, now absorbing nearly €1.3 billion combined

The United Kingdom and the United States have consistently been the EU's top two export destinations for preserved vegetables. In 2025, exports to the UK reached €728 million (+69.5% vs. 2015) and exports to the US totalled €615 million (+63.4%). Together they accounted for roughly half of all EU CN 2005 exports. The UK's importance has grown steadily, partly reflecting post-Brexit trade reorientation and the deep integration of EU food processors into British retail supply chains. Canada (+115.6%) and Switzerland (+90.8%) also showed strong growth, though from smaller bases.

Source: Top partners by value

The export concentration index (HHI based on value) remained broadly stable at around 1,430–1,442, indicating a moderately concentrated export structure that has not changed materially over the decade. The low volatility of the UK market (coefficient of variation of just 0.033) underscores its role as a steady, high-volume destination.

Import sourcing has diversified, with Türkiye and Egypt emerging as fast-growing suppliers

On the import side, China remained the largest single supplier in 2025 with €180 million, though its growth was modest (+25.4%). The most striking growth came from Türkiye, which more than doubled its exports to the EU (from €95 million to €207 million, +117.3%), and Egypt, which quintupled (from €12 million to €62 million, +401.2%). Peru also maintained its position as a major supplier (€210 million in 2025, +24.5%), largely linked to asparagus and preserved vegetable exports. Morocco (+57.8%) continued to grow as a Mediterranean supplier.

Source: Top partners by value

This broadening of supply sources is confirmed by the import HHI, which fell from 1,379 in 2015 to 1,053 in 2025 (−23.6%), indicating a meaningful reduction in import concentration and a lower vulnerability to disruption from any single supplier.

Source: Concentration HHI

Supply shocks in 2022 affected pricing from Peru and Egypt

Two notable supply-side price shocks were detected around 2022. Peru experienced an abnormal price spike (abnormality score of 42.2, with a 20.1% price shift) that affected a supplier representing 21.8% of import value — likely linked to drought, logistics disruptions, or energy cost pass-throughs. Egypt saw an even larger price shift (+33.3%), though its smaller market share (4.7% of import value) limited the aggregate impact. Both shocks are consistent with the broader global supply chain disruptions observed in 2022, driven by post-pandemic logistics bottlenecks and the energy price surge following the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Source: Supply shocks

III. Southern European dominance shapes an expanding but uneven internal production landscape

Within the EU, production of CN 2005 products has expanded dramatically, and the market structure is shaped by strong specialisation in a handful of Mediterranean and Central European Member States, with olives as the single most important product category.

EU production surged, reflecting both domestic demand and export orientation

EU production value for CN 2005 grew from €3.3 billion in 2015 to €21.7 billion in 2025 (+557.7%), while production volume increased from 1.81 million tonnes to 9.22 million tonnes (+408.5%). These figures — which include intra-EU production reported through PRODCOM — point to a sector that has expanded massively, likely driven by growing demand for convenience foods, health-oriented preserved vegetables, and the scaling up of processing capacity in key producing countries.

Source: Production volumes

Spain, Italy, and Greece are the EU's export powerhouses; Greece has the strongest revealed comparative advantage

Among EU Member States, three countries dominate external exports of CN 2005:

Source: Top reporters by value

Greece, despite a smaller absolute volume, has the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 11.7) and a normalised RCA (RSCA) of 0.84, indicating extremely strong specialisation in preserved vegetables — consistent with its traditional strength in olive processing. Spain (RCA 2.4) and Hungary (RCA 1.8) also display notable specialisation. At the other end, countries like Malta (RCA 0.002), Ireland (RCA 0.01), and Finland (RCA 0.06) show minimal specialisation and are heavily reliant on imports for their CN 2005 consumption.

Source: Specialisation

Olives dominate exports, vegetable mixtures dominate imports, and sweetcorn imports surged

At the product-segment level, the composition of trade is markedly different between exports and imports:

Exports are led by olives (CN 200570), which accounted for 404,710 tonnes and €1.21 billion in 2025 — representing roughly 46% of total CN 2005 export value. Vegetable mixtures (CN 200599) were the second-largest export category (€516 million), followed by potatoes (€358 million) and shelled beans (€222 million).

Imports are led by vegetable mixtures (CN 200599) at 196,580 tonnes and €433 million, and olives (CN 200570) at 150,854 tonnes and €302 million. The most striking trend is the surge in sweetcorn imports (CN 200580), which grew from 23,004 tonnes in 2015 to 43,550 tonnes in 2025 (+89.3% in volume), with the value jumping from €24 million to €50 million. This likely reflects growing consumer demand and limited EU sweetcorn processing capacity relative to demand.

Source: Product segment breakdown

Notably, asparagus imports declined by 20.8% in volume despite rising prices, possibly reflecting reduced Peruvian supply or a shift toward domestic sourcing.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 2005 (canned and preserved vegetables) over the period 2015–2025 tells a story of a mature sector that has grown strongly in value terms — driven substantially by price inflation rather than volume expansion — while maintaining its structural position as a net exporter. Export revenues grew 65% on the back of just 8% volume growth, highlighting the impact of input cost inflation and a shift toward higher-value products. On the import side, volumes grew more dynamically (+31.5%), supported by the rise of suppliers such as Türkiye and Egypt, and the EU's import base has become more diversified. Within the EU, Southern European producers — Spain, Italy, and Greece — continue to dominate, with olives as the flagship product. The 2022 period stands out for supply-side price shocks from Peru and Egypt, but the overall trend points toward a resilient market structure with strong export capacity and an increasingly diversified import base. Looking ahead, price dynamics, climate-related supply risks in Mediterranean production regions, and evolving consumer preferences for convenience and plant-based foods will likely shape the next phase of this market's evolution.