Market evolution: Candied fruit and peel (CN 2006) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in candied fruit and peel (CN 2006) from 2015 to 2025. The period was characterised by significant shifts in trade volumes, values, and partner dynamics, underpinned by global supply chain disruptions and price inflation. The EU has maintained a consistent trade surplus in this product category, evolving from a volume-driven to a value-driven export model. The analysis below explores these core trends, structural changes in the market, and the EU's resulting position in terms of autonomy and vulnerability.

I. From Volume to Value: The EU's Trade Surplus Remains Robust but Fundamentally Transformed

Over the decade, the EU's trade in candied fruit shifted from a volume-intensive to a value-intensive model. While the absolute value of both exports and imports grew substantially, the underlying trade volumes moved in divergent directions, leading to a significant repricing of the market.

Export value grew sharply despite contracting volumes

EU exports of CN 2006 increased in value by 30.6% from 2015 to 2025, rising from €50.7 million to €66.3 million. This growth occurred against a backdrop of a 25.6% decline in export quantity, from 18,116 tonnes to 13,482 tonnes. This indicates a strong increase in the average unit price of exports, which rose by 75.5% over the period, reaching €4,915 per tonne in 2025. The dynamics suggest a strategic shift towards higher-value product mixes or the pass-through of significant cost increases. Explore the general trade overview.

Import dynamics mirrored the export trend but with greater volatility

EU imports also grew in value, by 50.6%, from €24.9 million to €37.5 million. However, import volumes were more volatile, peaking at 16,895 tonnes in 2020 before settling at 9,026 tonnes in 2025, a net increase of 16.1% from 2015. The import price followed a steep upward trajectory, increasing by 29.7% to €4,152 per tonne. This price increase was less pronounced than for exports, contributing to the preservation of the EU's trade surplus.

The trade surplus stabilised at a higher value level

The EU's trade balance in this sector remained positive throughout the period, fluctuating between €6.1 million (in 2020) and €44.5 million (in 2022). By 2025, the surplus stood at €28.8 million, representing an 11.4% increase from 2015. The narrowing of the surplus during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was primarily due to a sharp, albeit temporary, increase in import volumes. The subsequent recovery and new high in surplus value underscores the resilience and strong pricing power of the EU's export sector. View the net import reliance trend.

II. Shifting Partners and Regional Realignments

The geographic landscape of EU trade for candied fruit underwent substantial restructuring between 2015 and 2025, characterised by the rise of new key partners and significant shifts in concentration.

The United Kingdom and United States solidified their positions as primary export destinations

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export market for CN 2006 throughout the period, though its share in value terms declined from €21.5 million to €17.9 million (-16.9%). In contrast, exports to the United States exploded, growing by 412.6% from €5.0 million to €25.6 million, making it the second-largest destination by 2025. This dramatic shift highlights the growing importance of the US market. Other notable growth was seen in exports to Switzerland (+74.8%) and South Africa (+297.4%). See the top export partners.

The import side witnessed the emergence of Vietnam as a major supplier

The EU's import sources also diversified. Thailand and China remained the two largest suppliers, with imports from China growing by 23.4% to €10.3 million. The most dramatic change, however, was the surge in imports from Vietnam, which grew by over 3,300% from €0.15 million to €5.26 million, entering the ranks of top suppliers. Meanwhile, imports from the United Kingdom fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of €15.0 million in 2020 before settling at €3.3 million in 2025, possibly reflecting Brexit-related trade disruptions.

Trade concentration decreased on the import side but increased on the export side

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell by 25.7% from 2,982 to 2,217, indicating a diversification of the EU's import base away from a few dominant suppliers. Conversely, the HHI for exports increased by 9.7% to 2,328, suggesting a greater concentration of EU exports towards key partners like the US and UK. This divergence highlights an asymmetric evolution: while the EU sources its candied fruit more widely, it is selling it to a more focused set of high-value markets. Examine concentration metrics.

III. Autonomy, Production, and Vulnerability in a Volatile Market

The EU maintains a strong degree of self-sufficiency in candied fruit, supported by a specialised production base. However, this position is exposed to volatility in key trade relationships and is shaped by the varying specialisations of its member states.

The EU is a net exporter with stable, specialised domestic production

The EU has consistently been a net exporter of CN 2006, with a negative net import reliance averaging around -10% to -15%. Domestic production volume remained relatively stable at around 96 million kg from the first to the last year in the production dataset, but its value nearly doubled, increasing by 92.5% to €450 million. This price inflation within production mirrors the trends seen in trade. Review production volumes.

Southern European members are the production and export specialists

Market specialisation is highly uneven within the EU. Italy is the dominant player, accounting for 33.3% of EU production and 52.5% of exports in 2025, with a strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). Other specialised producers include Greece and Bulgaria. In contrast, countries like Ireland, Sweden, and Finland have minimal production and are highly import-dependent. This geographic specialisation underscores the sector's integration into the broader agricultural economies of Southern Europe. View member state specialisation.

Volatility is concentrated in specific trade corridors, with notable price shocks detected

Trade flows exhibited varying degrees of volatility. Imports from the United Kingdom and Vietnam were particularly volatile (high coefficient of variation). On the export side, the most stable relationships were with Switzerland and Russia. Furthermore, the data analysis detected significant price shocks: a major price shock (+113.8%) for imports from the UK in 2021 and another for exports to Japan (+87.1%) in 2022. These shocks likely reflect post-Brexit adjustments and broader global supply chain inflation, respectively. Investigate volatility and shocks.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for candied fruit and peel (CN 2006) proved resilient, adapting to maintain its trade surplus through a fundamental repricing rather than volume growth. The value of exports increased by over 30% despite a decline in shipped tonnage, highlighting a successful shift to higher-value trade. The partner landscape was reshaped, with the US becoming a critical growth market for exports, while imports diversified with the notable rise of Vietnam. Domestically, the EU's production base remained stable in volume but nearly doubled in value, anchored by specialised Southern European producers. While the sector maintains a healthy level of autonomy, its export success is increasingly concentrated in a few key markets, and its trade flows are subject to significant volatility and geopolitical disruptions, as evidenced by recent price shocks.