Market evolution: Processed tomatoes (CN 2002) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in prepared and preserved tomatoes (CN 2002) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers tomatoes preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, encompassing both whole or in pieces (CN 200210) and other preparations such as puree and paste (CN 200290).

Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of processed tomatoes, with its trade surplus growing by 69.4% to reach nearly €1.34 billion in 2025. However, this headline growth masks three deeper structural shifts: a pronounced decoupling of value from volume driven by sustained price inflation; a significant geographic reorientation of import supply chains; and an extraordinary expansion of EU domestic production that has fundamentally altered the sector's relationship with international markets.

1. Price-Led Value Growth Masks a Decade of Stagnant Volumes

1.1 Export values grew seven times faster than export quantities

The most striking feature of EU processed-tomato trade over the decade is the extent to which value growth has been driven by prices rather than volumes. EU export values rose by 62.1%, from €1.075 billion in 2015 to €1.742 billion in 2025, yet export volumes grew by only 8.2%, from 1,278,812 tonnes to 1,383,351 tonnes. The average export price climbed from €840/t to €1,259/t, a 49.8% increase. This pattern suggests that the sector's revenue expansion has been largely a margin and inflation story rather than one of market-share growth through volume.

The import side tells a similar, though less extreme, story. Import values increased by 41.9% (from €285 million to €405 million), while import volumes grew 22.4% (from 291,512 t to 356,818 t). Import prices rose 15.9% over the period, a more moderate increase than on the export side, implying that the EU's exporters were able to command a growing price premium relative to their foreign competitors.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 Export values peaked in 2024 before retreating

Both exports and imports reached their maximum values during the period — export values peaked at €1.951 billion and import values at €589 million — before declining in 2025. This pullback may indicate a normalization after the inflationary pressures of 2022–2024, which were partly driven by energy costs, post-pandemic supply-chain disruptions, and agricultural input price increases. The 2025 figures suggest that some of the earlier price gains have begun to unwind.

1.3 Product segments reveal fundamentally different trade profiles

The EU's trade in processed tomatoes is not homogeneous: it exhibits a clear structural split between sub-products. In product-segment terms:

• Exports are dominated by whole or in pieces (200210), which accounted for 64.4% of export volume (891,568 t) in 2025. The remaining 35.6% (491,783 t) consisted of other preparations (200290), primarily puree and paste.

• Imports are dominated by other preparations (200290), which represented 88.1% of import volume (314,409 t) in 2025. Whole or in pieces (200210) accounted for only 11.9% (42,409 t), though this segment grew 103.8% in volume over the decade — the fastest-growing sub-category on the import side.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Export prices for the processed-derivative segment (200290) rose by 55.8% — more than any other segment — suggesting that the EU has been able to capture increasing value in higher-added-value products. Import prices for whole tomatoes (200210) are notably higher than for puree/paste, likely reflecting the premium attached to imported specialty whole-tomato products.

2. Import Supply Chains Diversify Along New Geographic Corridors

2.1 Traditional large suppliers lose ground

The composition of the EU's import sources has undergone a marked transformation. The two largest suppliers in 2015 — China (€112 million) and the United States (€74 million) — both contracted over the period. Chinese imports fell by 23.8% to €86 million in 2025, while US-origin imports declined by 20.2% to €59 million. Both countries also experienced high variability over the decade — their import values swung between multi-year lows and highs that were far above their 2025 levels (China's imports peaked at €231 million and the US's at €97 million at some point during the period).

2.2 Mediterranean and southern-hemisphere origins surge

The retreat of China and the US has been more than offset by the rapid expansion of several Mediterranean and southern-hemisphere suppliers:

Source: Top Partners — Imports

The most dramatic growth has come from Türkiye (which became the EU's third-largest supplier, behind only China and the US), Egypt, Chile, and Tunisia. Tunisia's import value surged by over 2,000%, from a marginal €1.1 million to €24.5 million, reflecting the country's growing role as a low-cost Mediterranean supplier of processed tomato products. These developments align with broader EU trade-policy efforts to deepen commercial ties with southern Mediterranean partners and with the competitive positioning of countries with lower energy and labour costs.

2.3 Import concentration falls sharply while partner volatility diverges

The diversification of import origins is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures market concentration. On the import side, the HHI by value fell from 2,461 to 1,531 (−37.8%), and the HHI by volume dropped from 2,840 to 1,742 (−38.7%). In practical terms, this means that import sourcing has moved from a moderately concentrated structure (where a few suppliers dominated) to a significantly more distributed one.

However, this diversification has introduced heterogeneity in supply reliability. The coefficient of variation (CV) of import flows varies dramatically across partners:

• Most stable: Morocco (CV 0.18), China (0.35), United States (0.27)
• Most volatile: Iran (CV 1.41), Tunisia (1.03), Israel (0.87), Chile (0.66), Egypt (0.61)

The growing reliance on volatile suppliers — particularly in North Africa — introduces a new dimension of supply-chain risk for EU buyers, even as overall concentration declines.

A notable supply shock was detected in Ukrainian imports in 2023: an 82.3% price surge with an abnormality score of 9.2, occurring against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and its cascading effects on Ukraine's agricultural sector and logistics.

3. A Domestic Production Surge Redefines the EU's Global Trade Position

3.1 EU processed-tomato production roughly tripled

The most transformative — yet least visible in headline trade figures — development is the extraordinary expansion of EU domestic production. Production quantities rose from 1,876,773 tonnes in 2015 to 5,927,719 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 215.8%. Production values grew even faster, from €1.213 billion to €9.071 billion (+647.6%), implying a near-tripling of the implicit unit production value.

Source: Production Volumes

This surge — likely concentrated in southern EU member states with established processing industries — far outstripped the growth in export volumes (+8.2%) and even total trade volumes, indicating that the additional production was primarily absorbed by domestic EU markets or stock accumulation.

3.2 Trade intensity and export propensity decline as production absorbs domestically

The implications for the EU's trade orientation are captured by two key ratios, both of which declined steeply over the decade:

• Trade intensity fell from 36.9% to 14.7% (−60.0%)
• Export propensity fell from 30.8% to 9.9% (−67.9%)

These declines mean that while the EU remains a large absolute exporter, international trade has become a much smaller share of the sector's total output. The net import reliance ratio moved from −27.0% to −4.4% (+83.7%). Negative values indicate a net-exporter position; the move toward zero confirms that the EU's production growth has more than absorbed the gap that once required imports to fill, substantially increasing the bloc's self-sufficiency in processed tomatoes.

3.3 Italy anchors EU export specialisation while production broadens across the bloc

The EU's export competitiveness in processed tomatoes remains overwhelmingly concentrated in Italy. Italian exports grew by 71.4%, from €797 million to €1.366 billion, representing 78.4% of total EU export value in 2025. Italy's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) stands at 7.07 — more than seven times what a proportionally specialised economy would exhibit — and its standardised comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.75 confirms a strong and persistent specialisation.

Source: Top Reporters — Exports; Specialisation

Portugal, Spain, and Greece also display strong comparative advantages (RCA values above 2.9), confirming that the EU's processed-tomato export capacity is rooted in its southern Mediterranean rim. The export-side HHI remained broadly stable (from 1,510 to 1,475, −2.3%), indicating that the geographic concentration of exports across destinations has not materially changed — the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, Australia, and Switzerland continue to absorb the bulk of EU exports.

On the import side, Italy is also the largest EU importer (€120 million in 2025), likely reflecting the Italian processing industry's practice of supplementing domestic raw-material supply with imported semi-processed tomato products for further value-added processing and re-export.

Conclusion

The EU processed-tomato sector over 2015–2025 presents a paradox: trade values and the trade surplus grew strongly, yet the EU's orientation toward international markets actually diminished. The explanation lies in the extraordinary tripling of domestic production, which expanded far faster than export volumes and shifted the sector's centre of gravity inward.

Value growth on both the export and import sides was predominantly price-driven, with EU exporters achieving sharper price increases than their import suppliers — a sign of the brand power and quality positioning associated with Mediterranean European production. Meanwhile, the EU's import base diversified substantially, with Mediterranean and southern-hemisphere partners displacing traditional suppliers from China and the United States. This diversification reduced concentration risk overall, but introduced new volatility from rapidly growing but less stable North African sources.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the EU's booming production capacity will translate into renewed export growth or whether the sector will continue to pivot toward domestic consumption. The 2025 dip in both export and import values, following the 2024 peak, may signal the beginning of a post-inflation normalization — but the underlying structural trends of rising self-sufficiency and geographic diversification of supply chains appear firmly established.