Market evolution: Canned tomatoes (CN 200210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in canned tomatoes (CN 200210 — Tomatoes, whole or in pieces, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid) over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on annual trade data covering imports and exports, partner-country breakdowns, concentration and specialisation metrics, and volatility indicators. The EU's trade in canned tomatoes has been shaped by three main dynamics: a strong and expanding export position driven by Italy, a rapid — though still modest in absolute terms — increase in imports primarily from Türkiye and Tunisia, and a significant rise in unit prices reflecting both global cost pressures and structural shifts in the market.

1. A Consolidated and Expanding Export Powerhouse

1.1 The EU's trade surplus has grown by over 60 %

Throughout the period, the EU has been a dominant net exporter of canned tomatoes. The trade surplus rose from €537 million in 2015 to €873 million in 2025, a gain of 62.5 %, as shown in the overview data. While the surplus dipped in the early 2020s — likely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic — it recovered strongly and reached its peak of €976 million in 2022 before settling at a still elevated level.

Export volumes rose by a more modest 12.9 %, while export value surged by 66.9 %, indicating that price increases — from €731/t to €1,080/t (+47.8 %) — have been the primary driver of value growth.

1.2 Italy dominates EU exports, accounting for over 90 % of value

Italy is overwhelmingly the EU's leading exporter of canned tomatoes, reporting €874 million in exports in 2025 — approximately 91 % of total EU exports by value. This reflects Italy's deep-rooted comparative advantage: the country's RCA index stands at 9.10 and its RSCA at 0.80, confirming a very high level of specialisation in this product. Italy's exports grew by 67.3 % over the period.

Other EU exporters contribute in a more limited but growing capacity:

Greece and the Netherlands stand out for having more than doubled their export values, suggesting growing competitive positions. Greece's RSCA of 0.54 indicates a notable, if less extreme, specialisation as well.

1.3 Export destination diversification has increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value fell from 1,803 in 2015 to 1,518 in 2025 (−15.8 %), indicating that export destinations have become more diversified. The United Kingdom remains the largest single market (€306 million in 2025, or about 32 % of exports), but its share has eroded as other markets have grown faster. Notably:

The United States has been the standout growth market, with exports more than doubling. Canada also more than doubled from a lower base. This geographic diversification has reduced the EU's reliance on any single destination and enhanced the resilience of its export profile.

1.4 EU production has expanded in both volume and value

EU production data show a substantial increase: output rose from approximately 2.45 million tonnes in 2015 to 3.65 million tonnes in 2025 (+48.7 %). The value of production grew even more steeply, from €2.33 billion to €5.94 billion (+154.5 %), underscoring the role of higher unit prices and/or a shift toward higher-value product forms in driving the value of the industry.

2. Rapid Import Growth Reshapes the Supply Landscape

2.1 EU imports have more than doubled in value and volume

While the EU remains a major net exporter, imports have grown at a faster rate than exports over the period. Import value rose from €39.7 million to €90.0 million (+126.6 %), and import volumes more than doubled from 20,814 tonnes to 42,409 tonnes (+103.8 %). Although these figures remain modest relative to the EU's own production and export volumes, the pace of growth suggests that external suppliers are increasingly finding a foothold in the EU market.

Import unit prices also rose, but more moderately than export prices — from €1,907/t to €2,121/t (+11.2 %). Notably, import prices have consistently been higher than export prices (€2,121/t versus €1,080/t in 2025), which may reflect the importation of niche or premium products, different product mixes, or lower economies of scale among certain suppliers.

2.2 Türkiye and Tunisia have emerged as the dominant import sources

The most striking development on the import side has been the surge in sourcing from Türkiye and Tunisia, as shown in the partner-country data:

Türkiye has consolidated its position as the EU's largest supplier of canned tomatoes, with its share of import value rising from 55 % in 2015 to roughly 60 % in 2025. Tunisia's growth is even more dramatic in relative terms: from a negligible €266,544 in 2015 to €22.1 million in 2025, making it the second-largest import source by 2025. This likely reflects the EU–Tunisia Association Agreement and preferential trade arrangements, combined with Tunisia's favourable climate for tomato cultivation.

Meanwhile, traditional suppliers like the United Kingdom, Israel, and the United States have seen their share decline sharply. The UK's decline (−58.3 %) is consistent with the post-Brexit trade reorientation.

2.3 Import concentration is rising, driven by supply consolidation

In contrast to the diversification observed on the export side, import concentration has increased. The import HHI by value rose from 3,705 to 4,240 (+14.4 %), and the HHI by volume increased even more sharply from 2,361 to 3,469 (+46.9 %). This growing concentration means that the EU's import supply has become more reliant on a smaller number of partners — principally Türkiye. While the absolute value of imports remains small relative to domestic production, the increasing concentration raises questions about supply-chain vulnerability, particularly in the event of adverse weather or geopolitical disruption affecting the leading suppliers.

2.4 EU member import patterns reflect regional specialisation

Among EU member states, Italy dominates imports — a seemingly paradoxical finding given its export dominance. Italy's imports surged from €0.8 million to €32.2 million (+3,749 %), suggesting that Italian processors increasingly complement domestic production with imported raw or semi-processed tomatoes. Other notable developments include Poland (from €0.5 million to €4.9 million, +827 %) and France (from €7.1 million to €13.6 million, +90 %). By contrast, Ireland's imports fell by 55.9 %, reflecting possible shifts in supply chain structures post-Brexit.

3. Rising Prices, Supply Shocks, and Product-Level Shifts

3.1 Unit prices have risen significantly on both sides of the market

The decade has been characterised by a general upward trend in unit prices. On the export side, average prices rose from €731/t in 2015 to €1,080/t in 2025 (+47.8 %), with a particularly sharp acceleration after 2021. Import prices also rose, from €1,907/t to €2,121/t (+11.2 %), albeit more moderately. These increases are consistent with broader global trends including elevated energy costs, supply-chain disruptions during and after the pandemic, and higher agricultural input costs.

At the product-segment level, the breakdown data reveals that, in 2025, unpeeled tomatoes (CN 20021090) commanded the highest export price at €1,213/t, while peeled tomatoes in bulk (> 1 kg, CN 20021011) were priced lower at €943/t. On the import side, unpeeled tomatoes were significantly more expensive (€2,644/t) than either peeled category (€639/t and €1,006/t respectively), suggesting a qualitatively different import mix — possibly speciality or processing-grade tomatoes commanding a premium.

3.2 Import-side supply shocks highlight the vulnerability of concentrated sourcing

Volatility analysis reveals that import-side trade flows are substantially more volatile than export flows. The coefficients of variation (CV) for key import partners include Tunisia (1.18), the United States (1.11), and China (1.00) — all extremely high, indicating large year-to-year swings. By contrast, the EU's top export partners exhibit far lower volatility: Japan (0.04), Switzerland (0.05), Australia (0.07), and the United Kingdom (0.08).

Three notable supply shocks were detected:

• Morocco, 2018: A price shock with an abnormality score of 7.2 and a price shift of −6.4 %. This was the most statistically significant shock detected and may reflect a bumper crop or competitive pricing from Moroccan exporters.
• Türkiye, 2023: A price shock with an abnormality score of 3.3 and a sharp price increase of +30.6 %. Given that Türkiye accounts for over 56 % of import value, this had a material impact on the overall import bill.
• Tunisia, 2022: A price shock with an abnormality score of 2.3 and a price shift of +40.1 %. This coincided with Tunisia's rapid emergence as a major supplier and may reflect weather-related production shortfalls or supply tightness.

These shocks underscore the risks inherent in an increasingly concentrated import base.

3.3 A new product classification from 2024 reveals hidden structural detail

An important data feature is that sub-product breakdowns for peeled tomatoes — CN 20021011 (> 1 kg packs) and CN 20021019 (≤ 1 kg packs) — only appear from 2024 onward, while only unpeeled tomatoes (CN 20021090) were reported separately for the full period. This likely reflects a change in customs classification methodology or reporting granularity.

Looking at the two years where all three segments are available:

In 2025, exports were roughly split across the three segments, with peeled tomatoes in bulk packs constituting the largest share by volume (398,215 t) but not by value, while unpeeled tomatoes led in value terms (€403.6 M) due to their higher unit price. On the import side, unpeeled tomatoes dominated both volume (30,710 t) and value (€81.2 M), representing over 90 % of import value.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU has consolidated its position as a major global exporter of canned tomatoes, with a trade surplus that expanded by 62.5 % to reach €873 million. Italy's commanding role — accounting for over 90 % of exports and holding an exceptionally high revealed comparative advantage — underpins this strength. EU production grew substantially in both volume (+48.7 %) and value (+154.5 %), while export destinations diversified, reducing concentration risk.

At the same time, EU imports have been growing at twice the pace of exports in percentage terms. Türkiye and Tunisia have emerged as the dominant suppliers, driving an increase in import concentration that raises potential vulnerability concerns. Supply shocks detected in Morocco (2018), Tunisia (2022), and Türkiye (2023) illustrate the material risks associated with this concentration.

The overarching trend of rising unit prices — affecting both exports and imports — reflects a combination of global cost pressures and possibly a shift toward higher-value product forms. As the market continues to evolve, monitoring import-side concentration and the potential for further supply shocks will be important for assessing the EU's trade resilience in this strategically significant agri-food category.