Market evolution: Tomato preparations (CN 200290) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in tomato preparations classified under customs code 200290 — covering tomatoes that are prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, excluding whole or in pieces. This residual heading encompasses products such as tomato purée, paste, concentrated preparations, and sauces in various pack sizes and dry-matter concentrations. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of these products, with the trade balance in value rising by 84.1%, from €252 million to €464 million (General Overview). The following sections examine three major dynamics that shaped this market over the decade: the price-driven expansion of export revenues, the geographic diversification of import sources, and the structural factors — production growth and Mediterranean specialisation — underpinning the EU's competitive advantage.

1. Export revenues expand on the back of surging unit prices

EU export value grew more than ten times faster than volume

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total exports of tomato preparations rose by 56.5% in value, climbing from €498 million to €779 million. Over the same period, export volume barely moved, increasing by only 0.5% — from approximately 489,000 tonnes to 492,000 tonnes (General Overview). This stark divergence means that virtually the entire increase in export revenue was driven by higher unit prices, which rose 55.8% from €1,017 per tonne to €1,584 per tonne. This price inflation likely reflects a combination of input cost increases (energy, labour, raw tomatoes), upstream agricultural price pressures (including drought episodes in Southern Europe), and a possible shift toward higher-value product segments in the export basket.

The United Kingdom remains the dominant export destination

The United Kingdom has consistently been the EU's largest single export market for tomato preparations, absorbing €162 million worth of shipments in 2015 and €271 million in 2025 — a rise of 67.6% (General Overview). Other notable growth markets include Japan (+105.0%), the United States (+207.8%), Australia (+228.8%), and Switzerland (+122.9%), suggesting that the EU has successfully penetrated premium, geographically distant markets. By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell sharply by 67.6%, from €20 million to just €7 million — a decline consistent with the broader deterioration of EU–Russia trade relations following 2014 sanctions and subsequent counter-sanctions on EU agri-food products.

Export concentration increased modestly, centred on Italy

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner rose from 1,348 in 2015 to 1,543 in 2025, an increase of 14.5% (Volatility & Shocks). While still in the low-concentration range, this uptick reflects the growing weight of the United Kingdom and a handful of other high-growth partners. At the same time, Italy solidified its role as the EU's largest exporting member state, increasing its share from €274 million to €492 million (+79.3%), and accounting for well over half of all extra-EU exports by value (General Overview).

2. The EU's import landscape shifts away from China toward emerging suppliers

China and the United States lost market share while new suppliers surged

EU imports of tomato preparations grew more moderately than exports: by 28.2% in value (from €246 million to €315 million) and 16.1% in volume (from 271,000 to 314,000 tonnes). Within this growth, however, a significant reorientation of supplier geography occurred. China — the single largest import source in 2015 at €112 million — saw its shipments decline by 24.2% to €85 million by 2025. Imports from the United States similarly fell by 20.0% (General Overview).

By contrast, several emerging suppliers recorded extraordinary growth:

Import concentration fell sharply as supply diversified

The HHI for imports by value dropped by 45.4%, from 3,092 to 1,687 (Market Structure). This is a substantial decline that moves the import market from moderate to low concentration territory. The diversification was driven by the rise of Chile, Egypt, Türkiye, and — to a lesser extent — Iran and Ukraine as alternative sources to China. This geographic broadening likely reflects EU importers' efforts to reduce over-reliance on a single dominant supplier, as well as competitive capacity-building in third countries with favourable climates for tomato cultivation.

Price shocks emanated from Türkiye and Ukraine

Two notable supply-side price shocks were detected during the period. The first occurred in 2019 in imports from Türkiye, where a sudden price increase of 41.8% was flagged with an abnormality score of 14.3; Türkiye at that point accounted for 13.2% of import value. The second, in 2023, involved Ukrainian imports, where prices jumped 85.8% (abnormality 9.4, value share 11.8%) — likely linked to the disruption of Ukraine's agricultural and logistics infrastructure following Russia's invasion (Volatility & Shocks).

3. Southern European production underpins the EU's competitive advantage

EU production of tomato preparations grew strongly in both volume and value

Over the period, EU production of tomato preparations (covering the broader 2002 heading and proxied by PRODCOM codes 10.39.17.21 and 10.39.17.25) increased by 21.5% in quantity, from 1.88 billion kg to 2.28 billion kg, and by 158.1% in value, from €1.21 billion to €3.13 billion (Market Structure). The much faster growth in value relative to quantity mirrors the pattern seen in exports and points to significant price inflation across the value chain.

Southern European countries display the highest specialisation

Revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) indices for 2025 show that Portugal (0.80), Italy (0.71), Greece (0.65), and Spain (0.59) are the most specialised EU member states in tomato preparations (Market Structure). These countries benefit from favourable growing conditions for processing tomatoes and a long-established industrial base. Italy alone accounts for 46.7% of EU production value and 80.1% of total exports, making it the unrivalled hub of the EU's tomato preparations industry.

The EU remains a structural net exporter, though reliance shifted

The EU's net import reliance — measured as (imports minus exports) as a share of domestic production — remained negative throughout the period, confirming that the EU is structurally self-sufficient and a net exporter of tomato preparations. It moved from −27.0% in 2015 to −14.0% in 2025 (Autonomy & Vulnerability). While the absolute trade surplus in value terms widened significantly (from €252 million to €464 million), the ratio relative to production moderated because production value itself grew faster than the net surplus. Export propensity — exports as a share of production — dipped slightly from 30.8% to 28.7%, suggesting that a growing share of domestic output is being absorbed internally or that production growth outpaced export growth.

Product composition reveals different strategies for imports and exports

A breakdown of the product segments within CN 200290 reveals distinct structural differences between what the EU imports and what it exports. Imports in 2025 were heavily concentrated in high dry-matter, bulk-pack products: subheading 20029080 (dry matter >34%) and 20029041 (dry matter 20–34%, packs >1 kg) together accounted for 260,000 tonnes and €254 million of the €315 million total. These are industrial-grade concentrates typically used as inputs in food manufacturing.

Exports, by contrast, were dominated by retail-ready (≤1 kg) products: 20029019 (low dry matter) and 20029049 (medium-high dry matter) together represented 251,000 tonnes and €409 million. This pattern is consistent with the EU importing cheaper bulk concentrate — primarily from China, Chile, and Egypt — and re-exporting higher-value, consumer-ready products to premium markets such as the United Kingdom, Japan, and Switzerland.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's tomato preparations market (CN 200290) was shaped by three reinforcing dynamics. First, export revenues grew substantially, but this was overwhelmingly a price story rather than a volume story — EU producers captured higher values without shipping significantly more tonnes. Second, the import landscape underwent a notable diversification away from China and the United States toward Chile, Egypt, Türkiye, and other emerging suppliers, substantially reducing concentration risk but also introducing new sources of price volatility. Third, the EU's structural position as a net exporter was sustained by robust production growth and the deep specialisation of Southern European member states — above all Italy — whose industrial capacity and product sophistication continue to anchor the sector.

Looking ahead, the key risks relate to input cost inflation, climate volatility affecting processing tomato yields in the Mediterranean basin, and potential trade policy shifts — including any measures that could affect the competitive position of major third-country suppliers such as China and Chile. The EU's growing reliance on diversified but increasingly distant suppliers, combined with elevated price levels, suggests that supply chain resilience will remain a critical theme for this market.