Market evolution: Canned tomato paste (CN 20029041) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in canned tomato paste (CN 20029041) from 2015 to 2025. The product definition covers concentrated tomato puree and paste in bulk packaging (>1 kg) with a dry matter content between 20% and 34%. The EU is a significant global player in this market, both as a major producer and a substantial net exporter. Over the examined period, the EU market exhibited a complex pattern of growth, followed by a significant contraction in the most recent period, alongside notable shifts in trading partnerships and internal market structures.

1. A Market in Retreat: The Sharp Contraction of 2024-2025

The most prominent feature in the 2024-2025 data is a broad-based contraction across all key trade metrics, indicating a significant market downturn or adjustment period.

Both export values and volumes have declined sharply

EU external trade of CN 20029041 experienced a substantial decline between the first and last years of the available comparison window. According to the General Overview, exports fell in value by 25.8% and in quantity by 14.0%. This decline was not offset by price increases; indeed, the average export price also fell by 13.7%. A similar trend is observed for imports, which saw value drop by 25.7% and quantity by 10.5%, with import prices declining by 17.0%.

The EU's trade surplus has narrowed

The simultaneous decline in both exports and imports led to a contraction of the EU's trade surplus in this product. The trade balance in value terms decreased by 26.7%, moving from a surplus of €9.5 million to €7.0 million. This suggests the contraction was more pronounced on the export side or that import price drops outpaced export price drops.

Production value growth masks stable output volumes

While trade contracted, EU domestic production data tells a different story. The Market Structure section shows that production volume remained relatively stable, growing by a modest 1.4%. However, production value soared by 153.8%. This stark discrepancy indicates a dramatic increase in the unit value of production within the EU, likely driven by inflationary pressures in energy, raw materials, and labor, which may have eroded the competitiveness of EU exports and contributed to the observed trade volume declines.

2. Shifting Geographies: Realignment of Trade Partners

The period under review has seen a significant realignment of the EU's key trade partners, with changes in both sourcing and destination markets.

Import sources have undergone a dramatic diversification away from traditional suppliers

The list of top import partners reveals significant volatility. While the United States remained the largest single source, its share declined by 24.0%. More strikingly, imports from China collapsed by 61.2%, and from Türkiye by 69.4%. Conversely, imports from Chile surged by 138.0%, and from Egypt by 59.6%. This realignment points to factors such as competitive pricing, harvest quality, currency effects, or supply chain disruptions favoring new suppliers.

EU export destinations show resilience in some markets but weakness in others

On the export side, the United Kingdom and Japan remain the two largest non-EU markets, though both saw declines of 35.3% and 20.6% respectively. Exports to Burkina Faso and Norway also fell. The most notable contraction was to Serbia, which saw a 69.1% drop. This pattern suggests softening demand in key mature markets and challenging competitive conditions in several third-country markets.

Internal EU specialization is concentrated in Mediterranean producers

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that production and export specialization in this product is heavily concentrated. Portugal and Spain have the highest RCA scores (24.9 and 7.0, respectively), confirming their roles as the EU's core production and export hubs for bulk tomato paste. Italy is also a significant player with a moderate RCA. In contrast, several Northern and Eastern EU members have near-zero RCA, indicating they are primarily consumers and importers of this product.

3. Evolving Market Structure and Reduced External Dependence

Beyond the recent trade shock, the data reveals structural changes in the EU's market position and risk profile over the longer term.

The EU is a consistent net exporter, but reliance has fluctuated

The EU maintains a positive net export position in CN 20029041. However, the measure of net import reliance (a negative value indicates a net exporter) improved significantly over the period, moving from -52.3% to -12.5%. This improvement of 76.2% suggests that, relative to its consumption, the EU has reduced its external market exposure as a seller, though it remains a net exporter.

Import concentration has increased, posing potential supply risk

While the EU sources imports from many countries, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 10.0%. This indicates that the import market became slightly more concentrated, potentially increasing vulnerability to supply shocks from key partner countries, despite the observed diversification away from China and Türkiye.

Trade intensity and export propensity are declining

The Autonomy & Vulnerability metrics show a clear downward trend. Trade intensity (trade relative to production) fell by 11.5%, and export propensity (exports relative to production) dropped by 25.2%. This suggests the EU's domestic production is increasingly oriented towards satisfying its own internal market rather than serving external demand, a structural shift that aligns with the observed erosion in export competitiveness and volumes.

Conclusion

The EU market for canned tomato paste (CN 20029041) is undergoing a significant transformation. The most immediate development is a sharp trade contraction in the 2024-2025 period, affecting both exports and imports, with falling prices and volumes. This recent shock is set against a backdrop of deeper structural trends: a realignment of import sourcing away from some traditional suppliers, strong but geographically concentrated specialization within the EU in Mediterranean member states, and a long-term decline in the bloc's export propensity and trade intensity. The data points to a market where rising domestic production costs may be eroding external competitiveness, leading to a strategic reorientation towards the internal EU market. While the EU remains a net exporter, its reduced exposure to global markets and increased import concentration highlight evolving vulnerabilities in its trade position for this key agricultural product.