Market evolution: Preserved fruit (CN 2008) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in preserved fruits and nuts under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 2008 over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers intra-EU production, trade with non-EU partners, price evolution, and market structure. The data reveals a market characterized by strong price inflation, a strategic pivot in EU exports, and a growing but vulnerable import reliance despite increased domestic production. The General Overview provides the foundational figures for this decade of transformation.

1. A Decade of Price-Driven Growth: The Inflationary Surge in Preserved Fruit Trade

The most prominent trend in the EU's trade for CN 2008 between 2015 and 2025 was a significant increase in the value of both imports and exports, largely driven by rising unit prices rather than substantial volume growth. This indicates a market experiencing considerable cost inflation and/or a shift towards higher-value product mixes.

1.1 Export Value Surges Past 1.3 Billion Euros on the Back of Price Increases

EU exports to the world grew by 59.9% in value, reaching €1.38 billion in 2025 from €866 million in 2015. Crucially, this expansion was almost entirely price-led. The quantity exported increased by a marginal 0.8%, while the average export price surged by 58.6% to €3,230 per tonne.

Source: General Overview - Trade

1.2 Import Bills Swell, Anchored by High-Value Nut Preparations

EU imports from non-EU countries also followed an inflationary pattern, though less pronounced than exports. Import value rose 14.1% to €2.39 billion, while volumes grew 8.2% to 975,096 tonnes. Consequently, the import price increased by 5.5% to €2,451 per tonne. The persistent trade deficit narrowed slightly from €1.23 billion in 2015 to €1.01 billion in 2025, an 18.2% improvement.

Source: General Overview - Trade

1.3 The Post-2020 Acceleration: A Global Inflationary Wave

The price acceleration was most pronounced from 2021 onwards, aligning with global supply chain disruptions and energy cost spikes following the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent geopolitical events. For instance, the import price for CN 2008 leaped from €1,692 per tonne in 2020 to its 2025 peak of €2,451 per tonne. This period also saw detected price shocks, such as a 33.6% abnormal shift in import prices from Guatemala in 2022.

Source: Volatility & Shocks - Top shock events

2. Shifting Geographies: Diversifying Export Markets and Concentrated Import Sources

The EU's trade partners for preserved fruit underwent a significant realignment, with exports diversifying aggressively towards high-income markets while imports remained heavily reliant on a few key suppliers.

2.1 Export Pivot: The United Kingdom and United States Become the Pillars

The United Kingdom remained the EU's top export destination, with the value growing 24.0% to €395 million. However, the most dramatic shifts occurred elsewhere. Exports to the United States surged by 174.5% to €264 million, and to Switzerland by 125.9% to €149 million. This indicates a strategic focus on premium, non-EU markets. Conversely, exports to Thailand collapsed by 79.6%, and those to the Russian Federation fell by 29.0%.

Source: General Overview - Top partners by value (Exports)

2.2 Import Concentration: Türkiye's Dominance and the Rise of India

The import market is less diversified. Türkiye remained the dominant supplier, accounting for 789 million euros in 2025, though its share declined (-16.6%). Notable growth was seen from India (+90.3% to €114 million) and China (+57.6% to €198 million). This concentration is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, which fell sharply from 2,263 to 1,320 between 2015 and 2025, indicating reduced but still significant concentration.

Source: General Overview - Top partners by value (Imports)

2.3 The Internal Rebalancing: Southern Members Drive Exports

Within the EU, production and export leadership solidified in Southern Europe, aligning with raw material availability. Greece saw the highest specialisation (RCA: 7.44) and its export value nearly doubled to €249 million. Spain, Italy, and France also showed strong export growth. On the import side, Germany remained the largest importer but saw a 9.0% decline in value, while the Netherlands (+44.6%) and Italy (+115.6%) grew significantly.

Source: Market Structure - Most specialised reporters, General Overview - Top reporters by value

3. Strategic Reorientation: Towards Value, Autonomy, and Higher-Value Segments

Beyond aggregate trade flows, the data points to a deliberate shift in the EU's market position, moving towards greater export orientation and a focus on higher-value product segments, even as overall import dependence rises.

3.1 The Export-Driven Model: A Dramatic Increase in Export Propensity

The EU's strategic focus on exports is clear in the vulnerability indicators. Export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) skyrocketed from 6.0% in 2015 to 24.1% in 2025 (+300.2%). Simultaneously, trade intensity and net import reliance also increased substantially, highlighting the sector's deepening integration into global markets.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

3.2 Product Mix Evolution: Nuts and Mixtures Gain Ground

The product segment breakdown reveals divergent trends. On the import side, the value of "Nuts and other seeds" (200819) grew from €1.07 billion to €954 million, still the largest category but now surpassed in volume by "Other fruit" (200899). Notably, imports of "Mixtures" (200897) saw a strong price increase.

On the export side, the value of "Nuts and other seeds" (200819) surged by 64.5% to €415 million, becoming the top export category by value, overtaking "Other fruit" (200899). This suggests the EU is consolidating its position in higher-value nut preparations for export. "Mixtures" (200897) exports also exploded in value (+101.4%), indicating growth in complex, added-value products.

3.3 Production Growth Underpins the Strategy, Amidst Volatility

The push for exports is supported by a massive expansion in intra-EU production. Production quantity grew by 533.2% to 3.5 million tonnes, and its value by 729.5% to €9.7 billion. However, this growth is not without risk, as supply volatility is evident. For instance, the coefficient of variation for exports to the United States is 0.39, and a major price shock was detected in exports to Morocco in 2018.

Source: Volatility & Shocks - Volatility bars

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 was transformative for the EU's preserved fruit sector under CN 2008. The market underwent a significant price inflation, which drove nominal trade values up despite stagnant or modestly growing volumes. Geographically, the EU successfully diversified its export footprint towards high-value markets like the US and Switzerland, while imports remained concentrated in a few key suppliers.

Strategically, the data reveals a clear pivot towards export competitiveness. This is evidenced by the dramatic rise in export propensity, supported by a massive increase in domestic production. The product mix evolution, particularly the growth in exported nut preparations and mixtures, further indicates a move up the value chain. However, this increased global integration has also raised the sector's vulnerability to external shocks and price volatility, as seen in recent years. The EU has thus traded some degree of trade deficit reduction for a more export-oriented and globally intertwined, albeit potentially more exposed, preserved fruit industry.