Market evolution: Canned pears (CN 200840) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in prepared or preserved pears (Combined Nomenclature code 200840) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers pears that are canned, bottled, or otherwise preserved, with or without added sugar or spirit. It bundles eleven subcategories ranging from large-format industrial packs (e.g. 20084051) to small consumer packs with varying sugar and alcohol content (e.g. 20084071, 20084079, 20084021) and a "clean-label" segment with no added sugar or spirit (20084090). Over the decade under review, the EU remained a structural net importer of canned pears, but the trade deficit narrowed markedly. Meanwhile, the geographic composition of both imports and exports underwent significant shifts, unit values diverged between flows, and the product mix evolved toward unsweetened formulations. The analysis below draws on overall trade aggregates, partner-level data, Member-State breakdowns, concentration metrics, vulnerability indicators, volatility and shock data, and sub-product segment breakdowns.

1. A Structural Deficit That Narrowed on the Back of Surging Exports

The EU has been a consistent net importer of canned pears throughout 2015–2025. However, the trade deficit improved substantially over the decade, driven almost entirely by an acceleration in export values rather than any meaningful decline in imports.

1.1 Imports held broadly steady while exports nearly doubled in value

EU imports of canned pears started at 20,022 t / €20.6 million in 2015 and closed the period at 19,583 t / €20.8 million — essentially flat on both dimensions. By contrast, EU exports rose from 6,169 t / €8.4 million to 7,972 t / €15.1 million, representing volume growth of 29.2% and value growth of 79.2%. The result was a dramatic narrowing of the goods trade deficit:

The deficit bottomed out at −€3.7 million in a peak year (the data minimum) before settling at −€5.7 million in 2025, meaning that the EU is now roughly twice as self-sufficient in this product category as it was at the start of the decade.

1.2 Net import reliance fell from 16% to under 10%

A useful summary measure, net import reliance, captures the share of domestic apparent consumption that must be sourced from outside the EU. It fell from 15.9% in 2015 to 9.4% in 2025 — its lowest point in the series — a decline of 40.5%. The parallel export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose modestly from 20.5% to 21.7%, while trade intensity edged down slightly from 43.0% to 40.8%. Together, these indicators point to an EU industry that is producing more, exporting a slightly larger share of output, and relying less on third-country supply. Indeed, EU production volumes grew from 1.95 billion kg to 2.17 billion kg (+11.7%), while production values surged by 52% to €3.9 billion, suggesting a significant uplift in average selling prices within the EU.

1.3 An expanding range of EU Member States became net exporters

Behind the aggregate EU trend lie sharply divergent national trajectories. By reporting Member State:

Greece's export value multiplied nearly fourteen-fold, making it the EU's single largest exporter by 2025, while Spain also doubled its shipments. Italy, once the leading EU exporter, saw its export value collapse by two-thirds, and the Netherlands and Austria similarly contracted. On the import side, Greece also saw inbound shipments surge (+218%), suggesting its growing role as a processing and re-export hub, while Germany and the Netherlands — traditionally the EU's main import gateways — saw flat or declining intake.

2. A Geographic Realignment of Trade Partners on Both Sides of the Border

The decade saw a clear reshuffling of the EU's main trading partners for canned pears, with China consolidating its dominance on the import side, South Africa retreating, and the United States emerging as the EU's single most valuable export destination.

2.1 Imports: China grew while South Africa and the UK declined

China was already the EU's top canned pear supplier in 2015 at €9.4 million and grew to €12.6 million by 2025 (+34.3%), reaching a peak of €13.0 million along the way. This made China the source of over 60% of EU canned pear imports by value in 2025. China was also by far the most stable supplier, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of just 0.13 — far below most other partners. By contrast, South Africa, the second-largest supplier at €9.3 million in 2015, saw its shipments nearly halve to €5.4 million (−42.6%). Argentina grew from a marginal position (€0.7 million) to €2.2 million (+227.5%), while the United Kingdom — a legacy supplier from before Brexit — fell from €0.7 million to just €0.2 million (−75.9%).

Import concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), rose from 4,156 to 4,444 on a value basis — consistent with the growing weight of China. This level of HHI indicates a moderately concentrated import market that has become slightly more reliant on a dominant supplier over time.

2.2 Exports: the United States became the EU's top destination

The most dramatic geographic shift occurred on the export side. US-bound shipments rose from €0.9 million in 2015 to €6.6 million in 2025 — an increase of 679% — making the United States the EU's single largest extra-EU export market by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom, historically the dominant outlet, fell from €3.5 million to €1.9 million (−45.7%). Canada and Mozambique also emerged as significant new or growing destinations:

Export concentration (HHI by value) also rose modestly from 2,006 to 2,249, but remains well below the import-side figure, indicating a more diversified export portfolio. That said, the growing dependence on the US market introduces a new concentration risk that was not present at the start of the period.

2.3 Specialisation confirms the Mediterranean countries as the EU's production core

Revealed comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 confirms the expected geographical pattern. Greece (RSCA = 0.78, RCA = 7.92), Spain (RSCA = 0.64, RCA = 4.51), and Italy (RSCA = 0.61, RCA = 4.19) are the only EU Member States with strong comparative advantage in canned pears. France and the Netherlands, despite their scale, show weak or negative RSCA scores, consistent with a role more oriented toward reprocessing or re-exporting imported raw material than toward net competitive production.

3. Rising Unit Values and a Consumer-Led Shift Toward Unsweetened Products

Behind the aggregate volume and value figures lie two important structural changes: a significant divergence in unit values between exports and imports, and a compositional shift within the product mix.

3.1 Export unit values surged while import prices barely moved

EU export unit values rose from €1,366/t in 2015 to €1,894/t in 2025 (+38.7%), peaking at €1,944/t in 2023. Import unit values, by contrast, edged up from €1,028/t to just €1,062/t (+3.3%). This growing price gap — €832/t in 2025, up from €338/t in 2015 — indicates that the EU is increasingly exporting premium-positioned canned pears (smaller packs, higher sugar or value-added formulations) while importing lower-priced bulk product, predominantly from China. Indeed, Chinese imports averaged roughly €960–1,060/t across the period, well below the EU-wide import average.

The divergence is also consistent with inflationary pressures in the EU food processing sector and the strengthening of the euro-area price base, combined with intense price competition from Chinese and South African suppliers on the import side.

3.2 The "no added sugar or spirit" segment gained ground in both directions

The product segment breakdown reveals a clear consumer-driven trend. Subheading 20084090 — pears preserved without added sugar or spirit — grew from 2,000 t (10% of import volume) in 2015 to 4,696 t (24% of import volume) in 2025, more than doubling. Its unit import value also rose from €962/t to €1,035/t. On the export side, 20084090 was already the largest segment at 2,724 t in 2015 (44% of exports) and expanded to 4,394 t (55% of exports) in 2025, with its unit export price climbing from €1,331/t to €1,909/t — the highest of any subcategory and well above the overall export average.

Meanwhile, the traditional sweetened segments in small consumer packs (20084071 and 20084079 — sugar content >15% and ≤15% respectively, in packs ≤1 kg) saw import volumes decline markedly:

The decline in the two small-pack sweetened categories (20084071 and 20084079) accounts for a combined loss of approximately 3,760 t of imports, which is almost exactly offset by the gain in the unsweetened segment 20084090 (+2,696 t) and the large-pack sweetened segment 20084051 (+531 t). This points to a clear market signal: EU consumers are shifting away from sugar-added small-pack pears and toward either unsweetened products or large-format industrial packs.

3.3 Price shocks were sporadic but significant on select export routes

The volatility and shock analysis identified three notable price shock events in EU exports:

The UAE shock in 2022 — with a price increase of over 200% and an abnormality score of 117.2 — stands out as the most extreme event. It likely reflects a one-off large contract or a shift toward premium product specifications in that market. The Mozambique and Russia shocks were smaller in scale but still significant. On the import side, Chile (CV = 1.43) and Türkiye (CV = 1.55) were the most volatile suppliers by value, though neither generated a single shock event large enough to trigger detection. China's import flows were remarkably stable (CV = 0.13), reinforcing its role as a dependable, high-volume supplier.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU canned pear market underwent a quiet but meaningful transformation. Import volumes were essentially flat, but the geographic origin of imports shifted toward greater reliance on China, whose share grew while South Africa and the United Kingdom receded. On the export side, the EU more than doubled its outgoing value, led by an extraordinary surge in shipments to the United States and the emergence of Greece and Spain as the EU's dominant exporting Member States — displacing Italy. The trade deficit narrowed by over half, and net import reliance fell to under 10%. Underlying these flows is a dual structural change: export unit values have risen sharply, pointing to a more premium product positioning, while the product mix is tilting toward unsweetened formulations (CN 20084090) at the expense of traditional sugar-added small-pack products. This suggests that EU processors are responding to consumer demand for healthier, clean-label products — and are increasingly able to command a price premium for them on international markets. The principal risk going forward is the growing concentration of both imports (China) and exports (United States) on single dominant partners, which could expose the EU market to bilateral trade disruptions.