Market evolution: Canned apricots (CN 200850) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in prepared or preserved apricots (customs code 200850) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers a wide range of preparations—canned in syrup, with or without added sugar or spirit, in various packaging sizes—encompassing twelve distinct sub-headings. Over the decade, the EU market for this product underwent a profound structural transformation: import volumes fell by nearly half while export values rose by almost 40%, unit prices climbed steeply across both flows, and the geographic composition of trade partners shifted markedly. The EU's trade deficit in canned apricots narrowed from approximately €18.0 million in 2015 to €10.5 million in 2025, reflecting a combination of declining import dependence, rising domestic production values, and an increasingly concentrated export sector.
1. A price-driven market: rising unit values offset falling physical volumes
1.1 Import volumes collapsed while import values proved more resilient
The most striking feature of the decade is the dramatic contraction in EU import volumes. Quantities fell from 25,572 tonnes in 2015 to just 14,255 tonnes in 2025—a decline of 44.3%. Yet over the same period, the import bill only contracted by 15.8% (from €26.4 million to €22.2 million), because import unit values surged by 51.1%, rising from €1,031/t to €1,558/t.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import volume (t) | 25,572 | 14,255 | −44.3% |
| Import value (€M) | 26.4 | 22.2 | −15.8% |
| Import price (€/t) | 1,031 | 1,558 | +51.1% |
| Export volume (t) | 5,911 | 5,440 | −8.0% |
| Export value (€M) | 8.4 | 11.7 | +39.2% |
| Export price (€/t) | 1,416 | 2,145 | +51.4% |
| Trade balance (€M) | −18.0 | −10.5 | +41.4% |
The decline in import volumes was not smooth. Volumes fell sharply between 2015 and 2020 (reaching a trough of 11,293 tonnes during the COVID-19 year), partially recovered in 2021–2022, then retreated again to 14,255 tonnes by 2025. This pattern suggests that the contraction is structural—driven by changing consumption habits and competitive dynamics—rather than merely cyclical.
1.2 Export values rose despite lower volumes, signalling a move upmarket
EU exports of canned apricots followed a different trajectory. Physical volumes declined modestly (−8.0%), but export values climbed by 39.2% to reach €11.7 million in 2025. The explanation lies almost entirely in unit prices: the average export price rose from €1,416/t in 2015 to €2,145/t in 2025 (+51.4%), with a peak of €2,307/t recorded in 2023. This price escalation, mirrored on the import side, reflects a broader global trend of rising input costs (energy, packaging, labour) as well as a possible compositional shift towards higher-value product segments.
1.3 The trade deficit narrowed substantially, reaching its smallest point in 2023
The EU has consistently been a net importer of canned apricots throughout the period, but the trade balance improved markedly. The deficit shrank from €18.0 million in 2015 to a low of €4.2 million in 2023, before widening again to €10.5 million in 2025. The 2023 trough was driven by a combination of depressed import volumes and a spike in export values (particularly in the sugar-added segments). While 2024–2025 saw some reversal, the structural narrowing of the deficit is clear: the EU now covers a substantially larger share of its canned apricot demand through domestic output.
2. A reconfigured partner landscape: from Southern Hemisphere dependence to Mediterranean proximity
2.1 South Africa and Israel collapsed as suppliers, while Türkiye surged
The geographic composition of EU imports was reshaped over the decade. South Africa, the second-largest supplier in 2015 at €9.7 million, saw its exports to the EU decline by 42.8% to €5.5 million by 2025. Israel's collapse was even more dramatic: from €257,000 in 2015 to virtually zero (€719) in 2025—a decline of 99.7%. Armenia similarly shrank by 88.2%.
By contrast, Türkiye emerged as a major new supplier. Starting from a negligible €126,000 in 2015, Turkish exports to the EU grew by over 1,800% to reach €2.4 million in 2025, peaking at €3.1 million in 2023. This surge reflects Türkiye's position as one of the world's largest apricot producers and its proximity to EU markets, which offers logistics advantages over more distant Southern Hemisphere suppliers.
Morocco remained the largest single supplier throughout the period, with relatively stable values around €9.4 million in both 2015 and 2025—though with significant fluctuations in between (peaking at €13.0 million in 2022).
| Supplier | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 9.4 | 9.4 | +0.1% |
| South Africa | 9.7 | 5.5 | −42.8% |
| China | 5.9 | 4.1 | −29.6% |
| Türkiye | 0.1 | 2.4 | +1,801% |
| Serbia | 0.2 | 0.1 | −23.9% |
| Armenia | 0.2 | 0.02 | −88.2% |
| Israel | 0.3 | ~0 | −99.7% |
2.2 The United Kingdom became the EU's dominant export market, while France emerged as a key exporter
On the export side, the United Kingdom consolidated its position as the primary destination for EU canned apricots, with the value of EU exports to the UK nearly doubling from €2.5 million in 2015 to €4.9 million in 2025 (+94.1%). The UK accounted for the single largest share of EU exports by the end of the period. Other growing destinations included the United States (+185.2%), Saudi Arabia (+91.0%), Norway (+54.4%), and Serbia (+74.1%). Exports to Russia, by contrast, declined by 44.5%, likely reflecting geopolitical tensions and sanctions.
Within the EU, France underwent a remarkable transformation, rising from the second-largest exporter at €1.2 million in 2015 to the top position at €4.5 million in 2025—a 282% increase. Spain, traditionally the leading EU exporter, saw a slight decline of 10% (from €3.3 million to €2.9 million), while Greece grew by 44% to €1.7 million. On the import side, Germany remained the largest EU importer but saw volumes drop by 40%, while the Netherlands more than doubled its import value.
2.3 Import concentration eased slightly, while export concentration increased
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined modestly from 3,127 to 2,890, indicating a slight diversification of supply sources—despite Morocco remaining dominant, the rise of Türkiye helped spread risk. Export concentration, however, moved in the opposite direction: the HHI rose from 1,291 to 1,974 (+52.9%), reflecting the growing dominance of France and the UK as the primary export destination. This increasing export concentration warrants monitoring, as it heightens the EU's exposure to demand shocks in a small number of markets.
3. Domestic production growth reduces structural import dependence
3.1 EU production grew in value, driven by price rather than volume
EU domestic production of preserved apricots expanded over the decade. Production quantity rose by 11.7% (from 1.95 billion kg to 2.17 billion kg), but production value surged by 52.0% (from €2.55 billion to €3.88 billion). This divergence confirms that price appreciation—not volume expansion—was the primary driver of the EU's growing self-sufficiency. It also implies that the EU canning industry has been able to pass on rising costs to buyers, suggesting relatively robust demand or limited competitive pressure from fresh or alternative fruit products.
3.2 Net import reliance fell sharply, signalling improved food autonomy
The net import reliance ratio declined from 15.9% in 2015 to 9.4% in 2025—a reduction of 40.5%. This is the single most significant structural shift in the decade. It means that the EU now covers over 90% of its canned apricot consumption through domestic production, up from roughly 84% at the start of the period. The ratio reached its lowest point in 2025, suggesting the trend is ongoing. Meanwhile, the export propensity (share of production exported) edged up from 20.5% to 21.7%, indicating that the EU industry is not only meeting domestic demand more fully but also finding external outlets for its output.
3.3 Southern European producers dominate specialisation, while the product segment mix is shifting
Greece and Spain are by far the most specialised EU producers of canned apricots, with revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.95 and 0.73 respectively in 2025. Greece alone accounts for 28.3% of EU production despite its small overall economy, while Spain contributes 37.0% of production volume. Austria, Bulgaria, and Croatia show more modest specialisation.
At the product-segment level, the dominant import sub-heading remains 20085061 (added sugar, >1 kg packing), which accounted for 5,750 tonnes in 2025—down from 12,117 tonnes in 2015 but still representing the bulk of imports. Notably, 20085098 (no added sugar or spirit, <5 kg) has become a growing import category in value terms (from €2.5 million to €4.2 million) despite stable volumes, reflecting very strong price increases (unit price nearly doubled from €921/t to €1,855/t). On the export side, 20085061 grew from €2.0 million to €4.9 million in value, while 20085092 (no sugar/spirit, ≥5 kg industrial packing) declined in volume from 3,119 tonnes to 1,996 tonnes. This suggests a consumer and industrial shift towards sugar-added preparations in export markets, while the "clean label" segment (no added sugar or spirit) is becoming more of a premium niche.
Conclusion
The EU canned apricot market (CN 200850) has undergone a significant structural transformation over the 2015–2025 period. Three overarching trends define this evolution. First, the market has become substantially more price-driven: both import and export unit values rose by over 50%, masking what would otherwise be even more dramatic declines in physical trade volumes. Second, the geography of trade has been reconfigured: traditional Southern Hemisphere suppliers (South Africa, Israel) have lost ground to nearer Mediterranean sources (Türkiye, Morocco), while the UK has consolidated its role as the EU's primary export outlet and France has risen to become the bloc's leading exporter. Third, and most fundamentally, the EU has markedly reduced its import dependence—net import reliance fell from 16% to under 10%—as domestic production, concentrated in Greece and Spain, has grown in both volume and especially value. While the EU remains a net importer, the deficit has narrowed considerably, and the industry appears to be moving towards a more self-sufficient and value-oriented model. The key risks ahead include rising export concentration (heightening vulnerability to demand shifts in the UK and other key markets), continued price inflation that could erode competitiveness, and the growing role of Türkiye as a supplier whose trade policies and agricultural output could introduce new volatility.