Market evolution: Nuts and seeds (CN 200819) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in prepared or preserved nuts and seeds (excluding groundnuts) under Combined Nomenclature code 200819, covering the period 2015–2025. Over this decade, the EU market for this product category underwent a structural transformation: export values rose by 64.5% while import values declined by 10.5%, leading to a significant narrowing of the trade deficit. At the same time, domestic EU production expanded dramatically. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail, drawing on trade flows, partner concentration, price trends, and production data.
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1. EU Exports Surge While the Trade Deficit Narrows
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the strong expansion of EU exports, which grew substantially faster than imports in both value and volume.
Export values and volumes both rose sharply
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (EUR) | 252.3 M | 415.0 M | +64.5% |
| Export quantity (t) | 30,104 | 47,523 | +57.9% |
| Export unit price (EUR/t) | 8,380 | 8,732 | +4.2% |
EU exports thus nearly doubled in volume and added over €160 million in value. The rise was not merely a price effect: real quantities expanded by 57.9%, while unit prices edged up only modestly (+4.2%).
The trade deficit narrowed by over a third
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade balance (EUR) | −812.9 M | −538.8 M | +33.7% (improvement) |
| Net import reliance (%) | 18.1% | 11.7% | −35.6% |
The EU remains a net importer of prepared nuts and seeds, but the structural deficit has shrunk considerably. Net import reliance fell from 18.1% in 2015 to as low as 9.4% at its trough before settling at 11.7% in 2025. Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 6.6% to 9.3%, indicating that the EU industry has become more outward-looking.
Key export partners diverged in trajectory
| Destination | 2015 (EUR) | 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 101.4 M | 146.3 M | +44.2% |
| Switzerland | 34.0 M | 76.7 M | +125.9% |
| United States | 11.5 M | 45.9 M | +299.8% |
| Norway | 9.5 M | 21.5 M | +125.3% |
| Morocco | 2.4 M | 7.6 M | +213.6% |
| Serbia | 1.5 M | 6.7 M | +352.8% |
| Russian Federation | 16.8 M | 6.9 M | −58.7% |
The partner-level export data reveals a clear pattern: while the United Kingdom remained the largest single destination (€146.3 M in 2025), the fastest growth came from geographically diverse markets. Exports to the United States grew by nearly 300%, exports to Switzerland and Norway more than doubled, and several smaller markets (Serbia, Morocco) saw triple-digit growth. By contrast, exports to the Russian Federation fell by 58.7%, likely reflecting geopolitical disruptions and sanctions-related constraints.
Among EU reporting Member States, Italy emerged as the leading exporter (€115.4 M in 2025, up 108.1%), overtaking Germany (€85.3 M). The Netherlands showed the most dramatic growth (+302.1%), rising from €6.7 M to €26.8 M.
2. Import Dependency Declines Amid Price Corrections and Supplier Diversification
While exports expanded, the import side tells a story of declining unit prices, modest volume growth, and a meaningful shift away from single-supplier concentration.
Import volumes rose but values fell, driven by collapsing unit prices
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (EUR) | 1,065.2 M | 953.8 M | −10.5% |
| Import quantity (t) | 120,601 | 146,593 | +21.6% |
| Import unit price (EUR/t) | 8,832 | 6,506 | −26.3% |
The EU imported 21.6% more nuts by weight in 2025 compared to 2015, yet paid 10.5% less in total value. This divergence is explained entirely by a 26.3% drop in unit import prices, which fell from €8,832/t to €6,506/t. The import price troughed at just €4,548/t at its lowest point during the period, likely reflecting global oversupply or shifts in the product mix toward lower-value subcategories.
Türkiye remains the dominant supplier but its share is eroding
| Supplier | 2015 (EUR) | 2025 (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 920.4 M | 723.4 M | −21.4% |
| China | 11.6 M | 25.6 M | +121.5% |
| Russian Federation | 13.9 M | 14.9 M | +7.4% |
| United Kingdom | 57.5 M | 17.2 M | −70.1% |
| Lebanon | 7.4 M | 14.7 M | +98.3% |
| Moldova | 0.5 M | 16.7 M | +3,333% |
| Israel | 3.5 M | 8.3 M | +137.4% |
Türkiye accounted for an overwhelming share of EU nut imports throughout the period — roughly 76% of import value in 2015 and still 76% in 2025, though the absolute value declined by €197 million. The decline in Türkiye's absolute share was accompanied by the emergence of smaller but fast-growing suppliers: Moldova went from a negligible €0.5 M to €16.7 M (+3,333%), and China, Lebanon, and Israel all roughly doubled their shipments.
Import concentration decreased significantly
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 7,503 to 5,802 (−22.7%). Although import concentration remains high by absolute standards — reflecting Türkiye's continued dominance — the downward trend signals genuine supplier diversification. By volume, the HHI similarly declined from 5,763 to 4,416 (−23.4%).
The product mix shifted toward consumer-ready and roasted formats
Examining the sub-product breakdown reveals that the largest segment by import volume — bulk nuts in packs >1 kg (CN 20081919) — remained broadly stable at around 90,000 t, though its unit price dropped from €10,853/t to €7,528/t (−30.6%). By contrast, consumer-pack formats grew more dynamically:
| Sub-product (imports, t) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20081999 — Other nuts/seeds, ≤1 kg | 22,947 | 33,483 | +46.0% |
| 20081995 — Roasted nuts, ≤1 kg (excl. specific nuts) | 5,109 | 9,660 | +89.1% |
| 20081993 — Roasted nuts (aggregate) | 724 | 1,919 | +164.9% |
| 20081992 — Tropical nuts, ≤1 kg | 865 | 3,463 | +300.5% |
| 20081919 — Bulk, >1 kg | 85,715 | 90,371 | +5.4% |
The consumer-ready and roasted segments grew far more rapidly than bulk imports, consistent with rising EU retail demand for convenient, ready-to-eat nut products. The roasted-nuts sub-segments (CN 20081993 and 20081995) more than doubled in volume, and tropical-nut small packs (CN 20081992) quadrupled.
3. EU Domestic Production Expands Rapidly, Reshaping the Competitive Landscape
The most dramatic shift in the period is the massive expansion of EU domestic production of prepared nuts and seeds, which fundamentally altered the EU's competitive position.
Production volumes and values grew at extraordinary rates
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production quantity (kg) | 304,612,048 | 850,000,000 | +179.0% |
| Production value (EUR) | 675,056,381 | 3,900,000,000 | +477.7% |
EU production of prepared and preserved nuts (other than groundnuts) expanded from roughly 305,000 tonnes to 850,000 tonnes, nearly tripling. The production value grew even faster — from €675 million to €3.9 billion (+477.7%) — indicating that the production increase was concentrated in higher-value product segments such as roasted almonds, pistachios, and premium snack formats. This production boom explains much of the decline in net import reliance documented above and underpins the EU's growing export capacity.
Specialisation is concentrated in Mediterranean and Baltic Member States
The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals pronounced geographic concentration of export competitiveness within the EU:
| Member State | RSCA | RCA | Production share of EU total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 0.849 | 12.23 | 0.04% |
| Lithuania | 0.488 | 2.91 | 0.02% |
| Bulgaria | 0.456 | 2.68 | 0.02% |
| Greece | 0.428 | 2.50 | 0.02% |
| Cyprus | 0.424 | 2.47 | 0.001% |
Luxembourg displays the highest relative comparative advantage (RCA of 12.2), though this is partly a small-economy effect given its minimal absolute production share. More significantly, Greece, Bulgaria, and Cyprus — traditional producers of almonds, walnuts, and pistachios — show structural specialisation. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA −0.997), Finland (−0.972), and Sweden (−0.761) are strongly unspecialised, consistent with their limited agricultural base for Mediterranean nut varieties.
Italy and the Netherlands emerged as dynamic EU hubs
Among the top EU reporting Member States, two countries stand out for their dynamism:
- Italy saw imports rise from €38.8 M to €118.3 M (+205%) and exports from €55.4 M to €115.4 M (+108%). Italy's dual growth on both the import and export side is consistent with its role as a major processing hub — importing raw or semi-processed nuts and re-exporting value-added roasted and packaged products.
- The Netherlands similarly grew exports from €6.7 M to €26.8 M (+302%), consistent with its established role as a European logistics and re-distribution hub.
By contrast, Germany — the single largest EU importer at €362.7 M — saw its imports decline by 22.8%, and Poland experienced a 62.6% drop, potentially reflecting shifts in sourcing patterns or reclassification of intra-EU flows.
Conclusion
Over 2015–2025, the EU market for prepared nuts and seeds (CN 200819) underwent a fundamental structural transformation. The most significant development was the near-tripling of EU domestic production, which simultaneously reduced import dependency and fuelled a 64.5% expansion in exports. The trade deficit narrowed by over one-third, and net import reliance fell from 18.1% to 11.7%.
On the import side, Türkiye remained the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, but import concentration declined meaningfully as new suppliers — notably Moldova, China, Lebanon, and Israel — gained market share. Import prices fell by 26.3%, reflecting both global market dynamics and a shift in the product mix. Meanwhile, consumer-ready and roasted nut segments grew far faster than bulk imports, aligning with evolving EU retail demand.
On the export side, the EU diversified its destination markets, with particularly strong growth in shipments to the United States, Switzerland, and Norway, while exports to Russia contracted sharply. Italy and the Netherlands emerged as the most dynamic EU trading hubs, and Greece, Bulgaria, and Cyprus displayed structural export specialisation consistent with their traditional nut-growing capacity.
Taken together, these trends point to an EU nut-processing sector that has significantly strengthened its global competitiveness over the decade, moving from a position of heavy import dependence toward greater self-sufficiency and export orientation.