Market evolution: Prepared nuts and seeds (CN 20081919) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in prepared nuts and seeds classified under Combined Nomenclature code 20081919 between 2015 and 2025. The product covers a residual category of nuts and seeds that are prepared or preserved, excluding specific tropical nuts, roasted almonds, pistachios, and other specified categories. The analysis examines the EU's trade balance, key partners, market concentration, and production trends to identify the main structural shifts and dynamics in this market over the decade. The EU's trade position has undergone significant transformation, marked by a substantial improvement in its trade deficit and a notable shift in its sourcing patterns.

The EU's Changing Trade Position: From Deficit to Reduced Dependency

The EU has historically been a net importer of this product category, but the data reveals a marked improvement in its trade balance with the rest of the world over the period. This improvement is driven by a combination of declining import values and rising export volumes.

A Dramatically Improved Trade Balance The EU's trade deficit in prepared nuts and seeds (excluding intra-EU trade) narrowed substantially. It moved from a deficit of approximately €866.5 million in 2015 to a deficit of about €600.8 million in 2025, representing a 30.7% improvement Trade Overview. The deficit reached its narrowest point in 2023, at approximately €397.6 million.

Diverging Value and Volume Trends The reduction in the import deficit stems from contrasting movements in value and volume. While the quantity of imports grew by 5.4% over the period (from 85,715 to 90,371 tonnes), the value of imports fell by 26.9%. This indicates a significant decrease in the average import price, which fell by 30.6% from €10,853 per tonne in 2015 to €7,528 in 2025 Trade Overview.

Conversely, EU exports displayed robust growth. Export volumes increased by 50.0% (from 6,730 to 10,093 tonnes), though export prices fell by 16.8%. This volume-led growth demonstrates an expanding export capacity.

Restructuring of Supply Chains: Supplier Concentration and New Partnerships

The geographic concentration of the EU's imports has remained very high, but the identity of key suppliers has shifted, while EU exports have become more diversified geographically.

Persistent Import Concentration on Türkiye The EU's import market is highly concentrated, as indicated by a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value that remained above 8,100 throughout the period Concentration. Türkiye has been the overwhelmingly dominant supplier. While its share decreased from a peak of €862.7 million in 2015 to €630.3 million in 2025 (-26.9%), it still accounted for 92.6% of total import value in the final year By Country.

Emergence of Secondary Import Suppliers Beyond Türkiye, several smaller suppliers have grown significantly:

• Israel: Imports grew from €0.6 million to €5.5 million (+762.6%).
• Lebanon: Imports grew from €1.8 million to €5.2 million (+185.7%).
• India: Imports grew from €0.7 million to €3.4 million (+414.2%).

In contrast, imports from the United Kingdom collapsed by 96.8% (from €44.7 million to €1.4 million), likely a consequence of Brexit.

Diversification of EU Export Markets EU export destinations show greater diversity, with an HHI for value around 1,000. Growth has been particularly strong in non-traditional markets:

• Morocco: Exports surged from €0.4 million to €4.2 million (+1046.1%).
• Norway: Exports grew from €1.2 million to €3.2 million (+158.6%).
• Switzerland and the United States remain the top two export partners, both showing strong growth By Country.

Conversely, exports to the Russian Federation plummeted by 89.2%, falling from €9.4 million to €1.0 million, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and sanctions.

Domestic Production Surge and the EU's Evolving Specialization

A key driver behind the improved trade balance is the substantial expansion of domestic EU production, which has increased the bloc's self-sufficiency.

Explosive Growth in EU Production EU production volumes for this product category grew dramatically, from 304,612 kg in 2015 to 850,000 kg in 2025, a 179% increase. Even more striking, the value of production surged from €675.1 million to €3.9 billion, a 477.7% rise Production Volumes. This indicates a move towards higher-value-added production within the EU.

Reduced Import Reliance As a result of this production boom, the EU's net import reliance—the share of consumption met by net imports—fell sharply from 18.1% in 2015 to 11.7% in 2025, a 35.6% reduction Net Import Reliance. The lowest point was in 2023 (9.4%), showing a clear trend towards greater autonomy.

Shifting Specialization Within the EU The internal structure of the EU's production is concentrated in specific member states. In 2025, the most specialized producers (measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA) were:

1. Cyprus (RSCA: 0.73)
2. Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.66)
3. Italy (RSCA: 0.57) Specialisation.

Italy is not only highly specialized but also the largest producer by value, with its production value share reaching 29.4% of the EU total in 2025. This suggests Italy is a central hub for high-value processing in this sector.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for prepared nuts and seeds (CN 20081919) has been fundamentally reshaped. The most significant development is the dramatic expansion of domestic EU production, which has directly reduced the bloc's net import reliance and narrowed its trade deficit. While import volumes have remained stable, a sharp decline in import prices has suppressed their total value.

The supply chain structure remains highly concentrated, with Türkiye continuing to dominate as the primary supplier. However, subtle shifts are occurring, with the growth of smaller suppliers like Israel, Lebanon, and India. On the export side, the EU has successfully diversified its markets, achieving remarkable growth in destinations like Morocco and Norway, while losing significant ground in Russia.

Overall, the EU's position has strengthened. The surge in production, particularly in value terms, points to an industry moving towards higher-value-added activities. This increased domestic capacity, coupled with strategic export diversification, has enhanced the EU's economic resilience in this segment, although dependency on a single primary supplier remains a notable structural feature.