Market evolution: Plaiting materials (CN 1401) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in vegetable materials used primarily for plaiting (CN 1401) — a category encompassing bamboos, rattans, reeds, rushes, osier, raffia, cleaned cereal straw, and lime bark. The period under review, 2015 to 2025, was marked by structural shifts in sourcing, pronounced price volatility linked to global supply shocks, and a growing but persistent trade deficit. Drawing on trade data, this report identifies three key dynamics: the sustained growth and deepening structural dependence on Chinese imports; the contrasting evolution of EU export markets, where the UK became the dominant destination while several traditional outlets contracted; and the significant price shocks that disrupted both import and export flows in the early 2020s.

1. Growing Deficit: The EU's Expanding Dependence on External Supplies

The EU is structurally a net importer of plaiting materials, and this deficit widened over the period. Total import value rose from €64.2 million in 2015 to €91.2 million in 2025 (+42.1%), while import volumes grew from 77,732 tonnes to 113,781 tonnes (+46.4%). By contrast, EU exports, though growing faster in percentage terms (+85.8% in value, +112.7% in volume), remained modest at €10.0 million and 5,888 tonnes in 2025. The trade deficit thus widened from −€58.8 million in 2015 to −€81.2 million in 2025.

Import volumes reached their highest level at the end of the period

Despite fluctuations mid-period, EU import volumes in 2025 hit their peak at 113,781 tonnes, the maximum over the entire 2015–2025 window. This suggests that demand for plaiting materials — driven by sectors such as handicrafts, furniture, packaging, and decorative products — has remained robust even through periods of economic disruption.

China dominates EU imports with a near-monopolistic share

China is by far the largest supplier, accounting for the vast majority of EU imports. Its share fluctuated but remained dominant: in 2025, Chinese imports stood at €72.8 million, up 44.3% from €50.5 million in 2015, and reached a peak of €101.6 million during the period. The import concentration index (HHI) for imports remained consistently elevated between 5,932 and 6,596, reflecting this heavy concentration. No other supplier approached Chinese volumes.

Secondary suppliers grew but remained marginal

Several smaller suppliers registered strong percentage growth from low bases, without materially altering the market structure:

Egypt and Türkiye showed the most notable relative growth, though their absolute volumes remain small compared to China.

The Netherlands and Poland emerged as the EU's main import gateways

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands was the largest importer at €37.1 million in 2025 (+76.4%), likely reflecting the role of Rotterdam as a major entry point. Poland's imports grew most dynamically at +95.4%, reaching €8.1 million, while Germany and France — traditionally large markets — saw their import shares stagnate or decline slightly.

2. Diverging Export Destinations: Growth in the West, Collapse in the East

EU exports of plaiting materials more than doubled in volume over the decade, from 2,769 tonnes to 5,888 tonnes. However, the geographic pattern of this growth was sharply uneven, with Western European and some non-European destinations expanding while exports to Belarus and Russia collapsed.

The United Kingdom became the EU's primary export market

The UK was the standout growth story: EU exports to the UK surged from €1.0 million in 2015 to €3.7 million in 2025, an increase of 250.6%. This may partly reflect post-Brexit trade dynamics and the UK's need to source from the EU rather than through EU supply chains. Among EU exporters, France led at €2.5 million, followed by the Netherlands at €2.6 million (+193.4%).

Exports to Belarus and Russia contracted sharply

In stark contrast, exports to Belarus collapsed by 91.6% — from €46,381 to just €3,899 — and exports to Russia fell by 38.5%. These declines accelerated from 2021–2022 onward, coinciding with geopolitical tensions and the imposition of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The price shock in exports to Russia in 2022 (abnormality index of 30.4, price shift of +50.6%) suggests not only volume disruption but a repricing of residual trade.

Export concentration increased as destinations narrowed

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for exports rose from 1,478 in 2015 to 1,935 in 2025 (+30.9%), indicating that EU export flows became more concentrated on fewer partners. This trend was driven by the growing weight of the UK and Switzerland on one hand, and the disappearance of Eastern European destinations on the other. The EU export market thus became geographically narrower even as it grew in value.

The EU's most specialised Member States are peripheral economies

According to the specialisation analysis, the most specialised EU exporters of plaiting materials (by revealed comparative advantage) are Latvia (RSCA 0.56), Ireland (0.56), and Portugal (0.56), followed by the Netherlands (0.51). The least specialised — Finland, Luxembourg, Estonia, Lithuania, and Slovenia — have negligible export shares, indicating a niche sector concentrated in a handful of Member States.

3. Price Shocks and Volatility: A Turbulent 2021–2022

The period was characterised by significant price volatility, particularly concentrated in the 2021–2022 window. Both import and export prices experienced abnormal spikes, driven by supply chain disruptions, rising commodity costs, and geopolitical upheaval.

Import prices spiked in 2021–2022 before partially retreating

Average EU import prices for CN 1401 rose from €826/t in 2015 to a peak of €1,173/t in 2021–2022 before falling back to €801/t in 2025 (a net decline of −3.0%). The segment breakdown reveals that the price spike was most pronounced for rattans (CN 140120), whose import price jumped from €8,090/t in 2019 to €12,568/t in 2022 (+55.4%), and for bamboos (CN 140110), which rose from €728/t (2020) to €1,266/t (2022).

A major price shock from China dominated the import market

The largest detected shock was in Chinese import prices in 2021, with an abnormality index of 20.8 and a price shift of +44.9%. Given that China accounted for 93.6% of import value at that point, this single event had outsized macroeconomic significance for the sector, likely reflecting post-COVID logistics disruptions and surging shipping costs.

Export prices for rattans showed dramatic and sustained increases

EU export prices for rattans (CN 140120) surged from €8,878/t in 2015 to €17,950/t in 2025 (+102.2%), far outpacing price movements in other segments. This suggests that EU exporters may be specialising in higher-value, processed, or niche-quality rattan products. By contrast, export prices for bamboos (CN 140110) and other vegetable materials (CN 140190) were more volatile but showed no clear upward trend.

Import volatility was moderate but UK supply showed extreme instability

The coefficient of variation for EU imports from the United Kingdom was 1.67 — by far the highest among import partners and indicative of highly erratic supply, possibly linked to post-Brexit trade disruption. By contrast, imports from China (CV 0.12) and Thailand (CV 0.26) were relatively stable, underscoring the reliability of Asian supply chains for this sector despite price shocks.

Conclusion

The EU market for plaiting materials (CN 1401) over 2015–2025 was characterised by three defining features: growing import dependence with a deepening structural deficit, heavy reliance on Chinese supply, and acute price volatility in the 2021–2022 period driven by logistics disruptions and geopolitical shocks. While EU exports more than doubled in volume, they remained a fraction of imports and became more geographically concentrated, increasingly reliant on the UK and a few Western European partners. The collapse of exports to Belarus and Russia reflected the broader decoupling of EU–Eastern trade. Looking ahead, the sector faces a dual challenge: managing supply chain concentration risk from China, and adapting to a more fragmented export landscape. The high specialisation indices for smaller Member states like Latvia, Ireland, and Portugal suggest that plaiting materials remain a niche sector whose strategic visibility may not match its economic weight — but whose supply vulnerabilities are real.